SGOTM 23 - Xteam

[Folket]

I did upload the game in case anyone is wondering.

http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG023_BC1080_02.CivBeyondSwordSave

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We might consider just attack anyhow.

Having thought about it some more, attacking now may still be the best option odds-wise. We'd lead with our Combat I Horse Archer, then our other Horse Archers, then Promote Axemen to Combat I one at a time, attacking with them, finishing off with our Chariots.

Advantages are:
1. Likely facing 1 less City Defender
2. Having our other Units still being flexible... it would be helpful to send a Chariot back to deal with Frederick's Axeman, and if there are any English Workers that we can amphibiously capture, it may be worth capturing them amphibiously. Or, whatever next City target we choose, we'll be able to sail more directly toward it, without having to wait our Galleys around for extra turns (Unload Galleys, attack, then Load Galleys on separate turns)
3. Happiness now, when we really could use it to be able to work 2 additional "power squares"

Disadvantages are:
1. No 10% Retreat bonus, which in practice can help but sometimes doesn't help at all
2. 8 against 3 isn't a guaranteed win, even without the 50% lack of Amphibious penalty, so while we might Retreat some of our Units, we might fail to capture the City and have to face off against a 4th City Defender plus whatever wounded City Defenders remain versus our 1.0/6 or 1.0/4 Strength Units that Retreated
3. Loss of flexibility in dealing with Frederick's Chariot


If we choose to attack amphibiously, which now gets my vote, then we would lead with our Combat I Horse Archer.

Doing so isn't much different than our previous attack; assuming that our Combat I Horse Archer does at least some damage, it will be 7 hits for us to win vs 5 hits for the Archer to win for our first two combats, whereas with the Espionage Mission it would have been 6 hits for us to win and 5 hits for the Archer to win for our first two combats.

That's the same number of combat rounds for us to deal damage as before (i.e. before the Archer kills us), but with us doing a little bit less damage for each round of combat that we're successful.

If we thought that we'd win with the Espionage Mission, then we should still win now, with the main change being that our Combat I Horse Archer goes first this time.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Well, there seems to be consensus that we go amphibious with promoted HA first. I could do that sometime in the next two hours, but have no time for the next 24 hours. Be happy for Folket to continue or anyone else who could stay connected to the game tomorrow. Will await feedback.

Has it been tested that our galley will be transported east when we DOW?

 

[Cactus Pete]

Hope someone will move us forward tomorrow.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Has it been tested that our galley will be transported east when we DOW?

Yes, both Folket and I have already confirmed as much. Whoever plays can also triple-check via the test game while practicing the attack. With Random Seed enabled in our test game, we can also run through the battle multiple times to get a feel for how it might play out in the real game.

with promoted HA first

And, to be clear, that would be with the Combat I Promotion, both because that Promotion against the top defending Archer will allow us to survive 5 hits from the Archer instead of 4 hits from the Archer and because the Flanking I Promotion will do nothing during an Amphibious attack.

 

[Folket]

Hello!

I'm back again. I guess I have to test this out now.

 

[Folket]

test with archer missing a promotion.
4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2,

correct test.
2, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 2, 2, 2, 4, 3, 2, 3, 5, 3, 4, 5, 2,

Not a single fail, but it gets expensive if our first 2 HA does not do average.

Strange that I did not manage to win a single 10% battle with my HAs. 47 tries...

 

[Folket]

Those numbers are units lost in an amphibious assault.

 

[Folket]

Mini-PPP
Declare war.
Attack with combat 1 HA.
Attack with HA.
Attack with HA.
Attack with Axe.
Attack with Axe.
Attack with Axe.
Attack with Chariot.
Attack with Chariot.

Stop if defender is not hurt after two HAs, attack seems likely to fail or London is captured.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I'm fine with that level of loss of Units. 6 Units is about what I expected to lose.

That said, if you don't feel completely comfortable with the attack, do you want to run some scenarios with us landing and there being another defender in there, say, a Spearman (in addition to the Archer having the right Promos), which would probably be the worst case scenario, to see how the numbers look? The newly-built Unit wouldn't have any Fortification bonus, and also wouldn't have had a chance to promote, so World-Building-in a Unit would work fine for testing purposes.

Yes, there's a cost to landing (one less turn of Happiness, a probable need of having to whip our Paris Horse Archer this turn as a defender for Orleans), but if the numbers play out much better, then we could land first.

 

[pigswill]

Did a few test runs with landing+spear and was surprised that odds are substantially better (23% vs spear) and losses lower than amphib. Losses 2-3 units.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Losing less Units is a compelling argument for landing our troops, as is not being screwed if our first 2 HAs don't do damage.

Whipping a HA in Paris would mean 1 less Unhappy citizen but 1 less power square worked. We could delay the whipping action until Turn 74 if Frederick's Axeman comes our way and still be able to defend against it. Or, his Axeman may just be "guarding the future settling location" and won't come at us. So, probably don't whip the HA on T73 and just keep working the Settler in Paris, earning us additional overflow Hammers when we 3-pop-whip the Settler.

There's probably no other micro that needs figuring out for T73.

I'm comfortable with either attacking now or landing and attacking next turn, but I'd favour the plan that gives us a greater chance of securing London, which sounds like it's the land-and-attack-Turn-74 approach.

 

[Folket]

ok, then.

Shall I go ahead and land and assault London turn 74? What do we do about axeman?

Well my test regarding amphibious showed that is was unlikely that our HAs failed. It was 10% chance of loosing 6 units and most commonly we lost 2 units.

 

[Folket]

I decided in testing to land.

Failed, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1, failed, 3,

Does not seem that great to me. The comparison is not perfect since some unit that survive has withdrawn from combat.

The first attack is below 5% instead of 10%. It is the survive chance that is 23% with withdraw. If the first HA fails to damage the spearman it is a large chance of failing to capture the city.

 

[Folket]

No comments?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

If we land, and it's a Spearman, what happens if we lead with our Axes, maybe even with City Raider I? Or, possibly better, we could lead with our Chariots to face off against the Spearman in hopes of wounding it, so that our Horse Archers would face off against the Archers or at least against a wounded Spearman, having the Chariots take the hits for us against the Spearman? In other words, is there a way around the failure cases if we attack in a different order with our Units?

If we land and it's an Axeman, there's less of a concern since we have Chariots for cleaning up the last battles, and Chariots maul Axemen when the Chariots are attacking.

 

[pigswill]

Changed my mind (again). Attack now from the sea, surviving chariot(s) can beat up Fred's axe-person.

 

[Folket]

If it is a spearman, our axes will attack unhurt archers making the attack even worse. I do not see any better way then to attack with HAs first to give us as good chance as possible.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Fine by me either way. Let's go get London.

 

[Folket]

Playing now.

Two HAs died but London is ours.