Nice work so far! The luck o' the Irish has been with you for the last couple of battles.
Jersey Joe said:
Zhuge get bad directions while in Orleans and ends up in Cologne not Macau.
Funny stuff.
I agree with the Espionage assessment that Yakutsk has started to build a new build item, so Galley 3 should Blockade this turn.
I also like your idea of sending Galley 1 sailing 2 E (to 1 NW of St. Pete's) to pick up HA 7, since Stalin having Open Borders with Churchill means that we're no longer invincible from being attacked, and while we might win against a Combat II Axeman, we might lose if a second Unit attacks us, and even if we did win, we'd have a wounded Horse Archer, which isn't all that useful for capturing Moscow compared to a mostly-full-health Archer.
Road
A Spy steals Construction. We can build bridges.
That's a very good point. It will be nice to get over the mentality that some Roads are not as useful as other Roads. At least the Road that we will be building will save us some time later when we are ready to make Oxford. And, we'll have a backup option in place if we don't manage to get Construction.
Techs
Shall we decide upon an order of priority for our tech thefts?
I'd currently suggest:
1. Code of Laws (needed for Civil Service and Philosophy)
2. Philosophy (needed to get a Great Person for our Golden Age)
3. Monarchy (yes, it's a non-monopoly tech, and thus it would be tradeable, but we could use the Happiness already, and we have nothing to trade for it except for Gold, and Gold is too valuable to splurge on techs, since Gold will allow us to stay at a 100% Science Rate on our tech beeline)
4. Mathematics (it's needed for Civil Service, but several AIs have it, so if we can't steal it, we'll probably be able to trade for it from some AI out there after several more turns--Stalin will learn it in 7 turns, although not getting it now would mess up our Workers' Chopping and would delay when we could start researching Civil Service)
5. Construction (because if I don't put it here, Cactus Pete will complain about not getting his Catapults)
6. Theology (to unlock Paper if Hatty goes for Civil Service; if she goes for Civil Service and we don't get Theology, I'm not yet sure what we would tech--maybe we'd just accumulate more EPs against both Hatty and Joao)
7. Calendar (I doubt that we'll get this many successful Spies, although it would be useful to have so that we could plop a Settler on Spice Island)
8. Aesthetics (possibly available for trade from Joao if another AI learns it)
9. Literature
Obviously, when a Spy fails, we repeat the attempt to steal the same tech, with the techs higher on the list being the ones to ensure that we get first. The order of the techs is up for debate, but once we decide upon the order, let's make sure that we get those techs in that order.
When exactly to use the 40% (or lower) Stationary Bonus Spies is debateable, but given the above tech order, I'd suggest using them on Monarchy and Mathematics, since those techs will be the cheaper ones of the techs that we're likely to be able to successfully steal.
Settlers
The real question: Is XO Cognac (or some other city) going to build another settler before turn 103?
It might have to be Paris if XO Cognac won't be able to do it, but let's see how our tech-stealing goes before we decide.
If we don't steal a lot of techs and a lot of our Spies die, we will probably have to wait to rebuild more Spies anyway. It's one of those hard-to-predict items right now since it will be so random-number dependent.
We could also use the York Settler, if needed, although I haven't calculated when it will get completed (probably not in time for T103).
The nice part about Hatty owning Macau is that she should accept Cities within 9.5 squares of there on the same landmass, so the fact that she owns Macau is what would enable us to gift her a City to the north-west of Paris.
If we decide not to take back both Cities at the time of the second City-gift (say, we would rather wait to position an army to capture her Apostolic Palace before declaring war so that she doesn't spam troops and make our lives harder), we'd scuttle the north-west City by Pillaging its Fish after having first grown the City to Size 2 and having whipped it, to keep her from whipping Units in the north-west gift City.
Note that these two gift Cities could be one way to win an Espionage Cultural Victory, since you want Cities that are close to your capital, to minimize travel time for repeated Spread Culture Missions from Spies. An AP Victory is likely going to be the best way to go if we continue to have success in our warring, but we're fighting with a bare-bones army and are relying purely on tactics to capture Cities; one wrong move and we could see our army getting crushed.
Stalin
He has a Great Scientist in Rostov, so that City may end up being a good one to capture, if he builds an Academy there, although that capture will probably have to happen in the second war.
Moscow looks tempting with just 2 Units currently defending it, but 2 Spearmen and 1 Chariot are visible within range of Moscow and Moscow in on a Hills square.
Still, our Axe 5 is probably best taking a Woodsman II Promotion, so that we can consider striking unexpectedly quickly at one of Stalin's Cities that he leaves weakly defended by both our mounted Units and an Axeman.
The question becomes: is it better to try to capture Yekaterinburg with some likely Unit losses and at least needing time to heal or shall we conserve our forces, consolodate our troops, and try to go for Moscow instead?
If we want to go for Moscow, for our Units at 1 SE of Vlad, I'd probably send them into Vlad this turn, to keep them from threatening Yekaterinburg (the City to the south-east of Vlad). I'd also send Chariot 7 (at 1 SW of Vlad) into Vlad.
HA 5 will heal in 1 turn if he and Chariot 1 (our Medic) stay on the square at 1 SW of Vlad.
If we do decide to go for Yekaterinburg anyway, at least by waiting, we'd have 2 full-health Horse Archers with which to lead the attack, which would make a significant difference in our odds of success. We could even plan to have Horse Archer 7 help out, but I still think that saving up to take down Moscow will be the coup-de-gras that will rip apart Stalin's empire.
Maybe we can bring in a war ally to help draw Stalin's forces away, to help make Moscow remain a promising target.
We'd need Saladin at Pleased, but we've already maxed out our Fair and Forthright Trading with him being at Cautious, so he won't be able to be bribed into a war with Stalin.
Darius would need to be Friendly, which isn't going to happen.
Hatty would only need to be Pleased, but I'd rather not drag a technologically-advanced AI into a war, and she's too far away to help, so she'd just end up stocking more troops inside of her Cities and maybe would do something silly, such as reduce her Science Rate and increase her Espionage Rate.
Kublai really hates us, so he won't be of help, as we can't get him from Annoyed up to the required Pleased.
Joao likes us enough, but he likes Stalin too much, so he won't declare on his friend Stalin. Plus, he's too far away to be of help and is stuck behind our Closed Borders.
Mehmed is actually the most promising one of the bunch. Mehmed will declare war at Cautious on someone toward whom he is Cautious or lower, so we probably only need to get him up from -1 to 0 or +1 toward us with a small tech gift. He only has 2 Cities, so I don't fear him spamming a lot of troops, but maybe we could get Stalin to funnel his Units toward Mehmed. Note that Stalin could also bribe Mehmed on us if we don't do it, so there's a risk that if we don't bring Mehmed into the war, Stalin might bring Mehmed into the war on his side, with Mehmed still getting techs out of it and the only difference being that we'd be the ones being ganged up on.
So, I'd suggest gifting Mysticism to Mehmed and then see how much he wants to go to war with Stalin. If we can get him to do it for Currency, great. If he wants more (say, both Currency and Horseback Riding), let's not giving him Horseback Riding, but we could wait a turn and then see if he'd do it for Currency + Meditation + possibly also Polytheism.
We may counter-intuitively end up hiding our Units inside of Vlad for a couple of turns to see if Stalin sends his troops away from the region around Moscow, then see if we can sneak in enough fast-moving Units in order to capture Moscow, which would be a far better prize than Yekaterinburg.
An unfortunate event has occurred, though--Churchill and Stalin have Opened Borders with each other.
So, St. Pete's is no longer a safe haven.
Our ideal striking point for being able to hit Moscow or Yekaterinburg within 2 turns thus becomes the Grassland at 2 S of Vlad, as mounted Units or a Woodsman II Axeman could attack either City within 2 turns from that square.
Note that any mounted Units that Unloaded inside of St. Pete's could reach that target square at 2 S of Vlad within the span of 1 turn, but we'd have to ensure that our Galleys did not end their turns inside of St. Pete's, as AIs are smart enough to walk their troops in to auto-destroy a Galley waiting in a neutral AI's port. It's very frustrating to see a message such as: "Alex's Warrior has destroyed your Galley."
However, we probably don't want to lure Stalin's Units our way by having Units adjacent to his Cultural Borders.
When we feel that we're ready to send out our troops, perhaps 2 or 3 turns from now, depending upon what Stalin does with his troops, we can gather our troops at 2 S of Vlad and then choose a target City (hopefully Moscow) that we figure that we could capture from there, taking Yekaterinburg as the booby-prize before Cease Firing if Moscow looks impregnable.
I hope that Yekaterinburg has a Food Resource at 1 SE + 1 S of the City, otherwise it will be a total junkpile. Why the City wasn't settled 1 S of where it is located probably has to do with Ocean-based Oil, or some silly algorithm about a specified distance from the capital at which to settle a City when all of the land is terrible, since settling 1 S would give the same Food Resource at 1 SE + 1 S of where the City ended up getting settled.
London
The Poison Water Mission will only cost London 3 Food, and I don't see a way to get extra Health this turn or next turn, so it's unfortunate, but it's probably one of the most harmless Espionage Missions that Churchill could have performed on us.
His Spy may have returned to Nottingham, though, so that may not be the last of Churchill's Spy activities.
Paris
I don't mind either way as to whether Paris builds an Archer or a Chariot. If we were to work a G For square for 2 turns, which we could do since we'll have 1 turn of Anarchy when Unhappiness wears off, we'd barely get our Archer with 25 / 25 Hammers. But, instead, we could get in 2 Cottage turns and get our Chariot 1 turn later, so, if we want the Cottage turns (which seems to make more sense), we'd get either Unit at the same time as each other, so we might as well just get the Chariot.
Other Cities
Realistically, our build item choices on T96 don't matter, since Hammers won't get invested into any build item, not even overflow Hammers, but we might as well make choices on behalf of T97 now, then be willing to change our minds on T97 after the tech-theft operation, if necessary.
Presumably, XO Cognac will slow-build a Spy after its Settler.
Work Boat for Hamburg
Jersey Joe said:
Hamburg starts an Axeman, What about a workboat to net fish Hamburg and Cologne could share?
We won't need a Work Boat for another 6 + 2 - 1 turns (6 turns for our Culture to expand, 2 turns of Anarchy, and 1 turn for the Work Boat to move into position), but since we won't be growing during that Anarchy, we'd delay it by a bit by getting it out of Hamburg as a build item other than the current build item.
But, what if we did the following:
Orleans completes Horse Archer -> completes Chariot -> builds Work Boat
21 overflow Hammers + 8 Hammers - 6 Hammers gives 23 overflow Hammers + 8 Hammers gives us our Work Boat
We'd then have plenty of time for the Work Boat to get into position, while Hamburg, which is closer to the front lines, can keep building Military Units.
It's arguable that an Axeman being built in Hamburg won't be able to contribute to an attack on Moscow (without delaying the use of the Great General by 1 additional turn, and each turn is precious with the clock ticking down on St. Pete's City Revolt counter), so perhaps we should build a Chariot in Hamburg now, then get an Axemen later during a Cease Fire to defend our Russian holdings for when we declare war again after the Cease Fire.
I don't see any other Cities that need decisions made for them.
Hatty
AI Settler Parties tend to first move straight horizontally or vertically and only then diagonally. That's not how I would do it (I'd move diagonally first), but maybe that's one of the ways in which the AIs are intentionally nerfed so as to give us more of a chance.
Regardless of why the AIs do that, this behaviour indicates that the DesH at 1 NE of the Fish and 3 SW of Memphis is her target settling location.
Hatty cannot settle next turn, due to the rule about not settling within 2 squares of another City.
Thus, I'd suggest that we let her move for 1 more turn, with us settling next turn (on T96), so that we can troll her for a turn, making her Settler Party think that they'll settle in the area and thereby waste her Settler Party's efforts.
So, I'd suggest that our Settler move 1 S P Ivory (to reveal the water to the south) > 1 NW DesH (1 NE of the Fish)
From there, we'd be able to settle on any of:
The DesH
1 W P Riv
1 S P Ivory
1 SE P Ivory
1 N Des (if we want Stone and 1 Flood Plains square in our big fat cross, with us needing a Work Boat from another City to net the Fish, but with us providing a better Culture Block)
On T96, our Chariot 9 could move 1 NW P > 1 NW P (1 NW P > 1 W P won't reveal a square that could be in the big fat cross of a City and delays our Chariot's exploration on future turns because 1 NW of there is Coast)
Then, on T96, we decide where to settle.
Galley 1
Axeman 6 is not going to be of use in attacking Moscow but it could be of use in attacking Yekaterinburg due to the Road at 1 SE of Vlad.
EDIT: Ignore this part, I wrote it before seeing your good idea of Galley 1 picking up HA 7 and I forgot to delete this text.
So, we could probably have Galley 1 sail to meet up with Galley 3, have Axeman 6 transfer to Galley 3, then Galley 3 (with Axeman 6 aboard) sails 1 S to 1 NW of St. Pete's (2 S of the Deer), then HA 7 moves onto Galley 3 at 1 NW of St. Pete's, and then Galley 3 Blockades from 1 NW of St. Pete's.
On T96, we'd wake up Galley 3 from the Blockade and could drop off both Units on the GH For at 1 SW of Vlad.
Since we won't have Construction before Zhuge has to move, he's still going to be unable to get to 1 NE of Hamburg until T97, by which point in time one of Galley 4 or Galley 5 could have gone to reach him.
With his help, actually, Axeman 6 could take 4 XP (as could 4 other Units), giving Axeman 6 Woodsman II and other Units some useful Promotions (probably Tactics for the 30% Retreat ability on one of our Horse Archers), allowing us a real shot at stealing Moscow.
With Moscow in our hands, Stalin's low-Culture empire would be relatively easy to take over after a Cease Fire.
By the way, the "New Big Game" sign aught to be moved 1 W, at 1 N of the Horse, due to the rule about not being able to settle within 2 squares of another City.
Worker 2 can put in 1 more turn of partial Farming (T96) but will have to stop on T96, so that it can board Galley 7 along with the XO Cognac Settler (who will have moved to 1 E of Macau) on T97.
We have Open Borders with Hatty, so we shouldn't have to worry about our XO Cognac Settler getting teleported.
Mehmed and Darius
As for getting Monotheism from Darius, please wait until after we've bribed Mehmed into war against Stalin before making that trade, since multiple AIs will dislike us for trading with Darius, including Mehmed, so we'd want to bribe Mehmed first and only then anger Mehmed by trading with Darius. Hopefully, Darius will accept Alphabet in trade for Monotheism. I don't think that I'd trade Horseback Riding to Darius and we'd then just save the Theology tech-theft for a future time, perhaps trading Code of Laws or something to Darius later for Monotheism. I don't suggest that we try to steal Monotheism, since we have so many other techs that we'd like to steal.
I think that you have enough info to be able to play until T96. Please speak up if you need help with writing a PPP, but otherwise, I'll assume that we've got every item sufficiently discussed for you to be able to toss together your plan.