SGOTM8 - Xteam

[DJMGator13]

Okay here it goes.

Starting with the current territory graph we can see that Team Tao & Ivan hit their final pushes between 1250 & 1300 AD.

So this is where the new plan comes into play. Let's call it Greedy Tech. Since we have built a well oiled commerce machine it should not be too much trouble to switch our economy over to a research machine. We are currently making about 350 bpt if we push our science to 70%. If we can add libraries to our core cities we should be able to research decently. The following images are taken from my excel worksheet. I have attached the file as a zip file also.

We need 16 techs for airports. If we can build Newton's and add some universities we should be able to easily beat my estimated date to Flight. The down side is we would still need 7 additional techs to reach helicopters.

I detoured to Medicine and Sci Method because they cost 2500 beakers each and we can gain 2 more expensive techs for free. We should can get some research help epsecially if we trade/sell techs to ROM & JPN. This should allow us to have airports around that same1250 to 1300AD timeframe.

Please look at this and comment. We currently have a high level of war weariness so I'm not sure what positive impact this will have on bpt if we make peace with England right away.

 

[leif erikson]

An interesting idea!

Although I'm half asleepI'll play devil's advocate for a minute:

1. As we approach the end of those 71 turns, we will have nothing prepared and built to do the fighting with. No tanks, no Infantry, no Paratroopers because we won't have the techs we require to build them?

2. iirc, this still means we will need a city on the ROM/JAP continent as we will require an airport to fly in anything we wish to fight with. If we can buy Mil Trad., get far enough out front in tech and fly in Cavalry for the initial assault? But without paratroopers or helicopters to fly in foot units, we still can't "get there", can we?

3. Using our current strategy, can we get onto foreign soil in 71 turns or less and take downb Rome and Japan. I'm wondering if we can make peace for techs every so often, will that keep us in the techs we need? There are no scientific civs, so Nationalism will not be automatically in play at age change.

Enough rambling, I think I'll sleep on it and have a fresh look in the morning. See what others think?

Nice work on the timings, etc. It will be interesting to see if we can change course twice and still finish strong.

 

[Capt Buttkick]

Excellent analysis, Gator
However, I think what your analysis proves is that switching strats now is like admitting defeat. Like leif said, I don't think we can switch into hyper research mode and still be prepared with military when we get airfields.
Likely, we won't be able to win this sgotm unless someone comes up with a (nother) killer idea. But at least we'll know we put our chips in the pot and had a go at it.


@leif: 5% flip chance per turn doesn't mean 50% flip chance over 10 turns.
Chance of a city flipping during a turn set if it has 5% flip chance per turn =
Chance of it flipping first turn + flip chance on the second turn provided it didn't flip the first turn + flip chance on the 3rd turn provided it didn't flip the first 2 turns... + flip chance on the 10th turn provided it didn't flip the first 9 turns
= 40%
Even at 6% flip chance per turn, the chance of it flipping during a turn set is just above 46%

 

[DJMGator13]

Excellent analysis, Gator
However, I think what your analysis proves is that switching strats now is like admitting defeat. Like leif said, I don't think we can switch into hyper research mode and still be prepared with military when we get airfields.
Likely, we won't be able to win this sgotm unless someone comes up with a (nother) killer idea. But at least we'll know we put our chips in the pot and had a go at it.

Not an admission of defeat, only a realization that under our current plan we will not be able to finish as fast as the other teams have. But we currently have a territory lead on our direct competition except for Team Durtz. The major problem is getting to the small isolated islands and getting a foothold on ROM/JPN island.

Actually once our core city builds the library it can go right back to military units. Ideally if we can get universities in all 1st ring core cities we might be able to hit a 4 turn research rate early in the IA, which could knock 10 turns or more off our self research date. By trading key techs away ASAP we should definately get some help on our path to Flight and more importantly towards Adv. Flight. By key techs I mean techs like Steam, which will allow the AI to research Industrialation for us. The AI will also research RParts. And we don't really know what techs ROM/JPN and ENG are sitting on right now. They may already know Physics.

I'm not saying that we need to completely abandon our current plan we just need to redirect our emphasis from gpt to bpt. Due to WW we could make peace with ENG and gain Astronomy from them, then if we trade Economics away now we can gain Chemistry and gpt from ROM & JPN and possibly another tech. Even if we lose Smith's we can switch to a palace as a prebuild for Newton's which should be a big boost to our research efforts.

We will have plenty of time to amass an army of cavs, infantry and artillery. Which leads to another question: can artillery be sent thru airports?

Study the map some and let's continue the discussion. I'm also open to another plan. I'm concerned that our finish will be too slow compared to the other teams and we'll end up behind them.

 

[bluebox]

Nice idea and good presentation I almost felt like sitting in a meeting

But seriously, I think this shift in strategy would come too late. The proposed strategy *can* explain the steep gain in territory of Teams tao & ivan. But what's up with e.g. wacken or even clarius? Do they have airports or helis and have huge territory wins around 450AD and 950AD? b/c of that?

If you compare the curve of tao and ivan to ours, you'll see that the reason why they're lower on territory probably is that they aimed at a dragster tech race from the beginning. THey put their shields and gold inot libraries instead of troops. We already discussed the culture graphs a little bit here:

Klarius and Wacken even start to sell the libraries! So they already have what they want. They are playing C3C though. But once Ivan and tao start to do so, we cannot overtake them anymore.

You've calculated a lot of gold into your tech race plan. Just a simple guesstimation by me:

71 turns x 400gpt = 28400g
28400g / 356g (cost for a rushed Cav) = 79 Cavs!

What would 79 cavs do to the Roman territory?? As Leif pointed out: We need a foothold city and troops anyway.

I love your plan, gator, and all the thoughts you put into it, but I suspect our chance to win this for us is to fulfil mistfits prophecy of a win before Adv. Flight. Sorry to second the devil's advocate. Curious what the others will say.

 

[leif erikson]

@leif: 5% flip chance per turn doesn't mean 50% flip chance over 10 turns.
Chance of a city flipping during a turn set if it has 5% flip chance per turn =
Chance of it flipping first turn + flip chance on the second turn provided it didn't flip the first turn + flip chance on the 3rd turn provided it didn't flip the first 2 turns... + flip chance on the 10th turn provided it didn't flip the first 9 turns
= 40%
Even at 6% flip chance per turn, the chance of it flipping during a turn set is just above 46%

Thanks for the formula. That helps me understand it better.

The point remains, however, that those cities had flip probabilities during my last turn set and now they are under even greater pressure. SO, that means 30 turns of adding up flip chances. :shakehead:shakehead

The conclusion, Aligning with Rome will, essentially, mean handing them to Rome. Extended peace will also mean the same thing.

I think your point of admitting defeat is probably on the mark. Although I'm not ready to say we can't do this. There are difficulties and it will require us to think way out and creatively exploit the AI.

However, unless we change to a research strategy, we aren't going to see a Modern Age. So the question remains, can we win in 7 or 8 turn sets without changing strategy? Or are we doomed?

 

[leif erikson]

Which leads to another question: can artillery be sent thru airports?

No, they can not!

 

[DJMGator13]

I agree this may be too late to switch strategies. I think we should have done this 2 or 3 turnsets ago and we would have been right in line with the other teams.

@bluebox - I did not look at the cpt graph, interesting stuff there as well. Team Durtz definately went on the tech path as well so we are the only team taking this approach.

I'm off to work now, I'll check back later. Keep the thoughts coming in on how to get a city on the ROM/JPN island.

 

[Capt Buttkick]

If we go for Gator's plan, would it be worth our while to investigate wonder-building AI cities be4 we decide? To make sure they don't cascade to Smith's.

 

[leif erikson]

I agree this may be too late to switch strategies. I think we should have done this 2 or 3 turnsets ago and we would have been right in line with the other teams.

@bluebox - I did not look at the cpt graph, interesting stuff there as well. Team Durtz definately went on the tech path as well so we are the only team taking this approach.

Nothing like being unique!

I'm off to work now, I'll check back later. Keep the thoughts coming in on how to get a city on the ROM/JPN island.

I don't think there is any magic trick that is going to help us with this. What is going to work, imho, is a dogged, determined strategy to war with the AI and, through a series of peace and war declaration cycles, wearing down the AI until they relent and give us a city or two on their home island along with techs that may be useful to us.

I think we have to face the fact that we aren't going to be flying units all over the map and be in the race to the finish. In that light, our core can prolly build libraries and banks. These may prove useful if we need to target a tech and learn it quickly. Like, say Military Tradition?

Our 2 greatest problems will be war weariness and city flips if we continue to follow our current road. How can we minimize both? If we continue, we will need to be at war almost constantly with one civ or another. Is a change in governemnt, to Monarchy, in order? That will hurt us in the gold department.

Enough rambling!

 

[leif erikson]

If we go for Gator's plan, would it be worth our while to investigate wonder-building AI cities be4 we decide? To make sure they don't cascade to Smith's.

Just took an in game look at this. Currently there are 2 wonders under construction.

Magellan's Voyage in Rome and Satsuma, both size 12 cities. Satsuma is relatively shield poor based upon the latest map we have. Rome is, well, huge.

JS Bach's is being built by Rome in Ceasaraugustus, a size 4 city, Japan in Shimonoseki, a size 4 city, and by England in Warwick, a size 7 city that we will hopefully take soon.

I would guess that the only cascade we need fear in the next 5 turns would be if Magellan's get built by Japan in Satsuma and Rome cascades to Smith's. Checking never hurt, except in the cost in gold!

EDIT: Can we see wonders being built if we don't have the techs to build them ourselves?

 

[Capt Buttkick]

I think we should minimize flip risk and WW by razing any and all cities unless there's a really good reason to keep one or two. I don't mind much if the AI fill in gaps with settlers as long as we contain the situation with military. The more cities we raze, the more we'll get in peace deals. After starving the aquired cities down, we can even gift them to the AI and raze them to push further peace negotiations along

 

[leif erikson]

I think we should minimize flip risk and WW by razing any and all cities unless there's a really good reason to keep one or two. I don't mind much if the AI fill in gaps with settlers as long as we contain the situation with military. The more cities we raze, the more we'll get in peace deals. After starving the aquired cities down, we can even gift them to the AI and raze them to push further peace negotiations along

I think this is an excellent idea! Especially in England. Let's hope Rome does fill in some so we can snag and raze those cities as well. Perhaps this is a way to better peace deals and an opening on their island?

When we get onto the Roman/Japanese island, we could keep some around, say, Rome for a possible Palace Jump?

 

[WillowBrook]

Good discussion, guys!

My current opinion is that we're committed to our strategy of buying victory. It won't hurt to go after cavs, but that's probably as far as we need to go research-wise - once Rome and Japan are at war, they won't do much researching, either.

As for razing cities, unfortunately, we need some to build our units. But at least the English ones can be razed if we can keep foreign replacement settlers at bay.

 

[leif erikson]

once Rome and Japan are at war, they won't do much researching, either.

Therefore, we ought to get them to war with each other before they have a chance to get to Nationalism!!

 

[DJMGator13]

Okay so we're sticking with our original plan. Not a problem, I just wanted to throw out another idea.

Now we need to decide if we should trade Economics right away to gain Astronomy and Chemistry? We really only need Chemistry, then Metal then MT. We should be able to self research those in 4-5 turns without any libraries so I wouldn't build any. I think ROM was offering both techs and a small gpt deal for Econ. It might be worth pulling that trade with both ROM & JPN and see what they know past Chemistry. We may be able to snag Metal which would mean we can have cavalry in 5 turns.

One way to make WW go away is to eliminate them from the game. As long as we stay at war with a civ we should keep their cities. We still want as many taxmen as possible to keep the gold rolling in.

Question (maybe even requires a lurker response): How does our power rating affect receiving cities in peace deals? We are strong militarily to everyone except Rome and our Power graph looks like this:

Back to the plan: We should pull the trade deal for Economics with JPN gaining Chemistry and Astronomy then declare on them. Then use Economics to bring Rome in against Japan. We can wait a few turns until we learn MT to upgrade our knights in Rome to cavs and then we declare on Rome also. By then we should be close to being able to make a peace deal with Japan for an off island city.

 

[leif erikson]

Question (maybe even requires a lurker response): How does our power rating affect receiving cities in peace deals? We are strong militarily to everyone except Rome and our Power graph looks like this:

Power rating looks quite favorable to us! This should help us, I hope?

Back to the plan: We should pull the trade deal for Economics with JPN gaining Chemistry and Astronomy then declare on them. Then use Economics to bring Rome in against Japan. We can wait a few turns until we learn MT to upgrade our knights in Rome to cavs and then we declare on Rome also. By then we should be close to being able to make a peace deal with Japan for an off island city.

You had me until we started talking about which Civ to pick on? Can you please explain why Japan?

We can do nothing to Japan ourselves. We have the ability to strike Rome directly and with positive results. As we help Japan damage Rome one would hope we might get something on island?

To ally with Rome means giving them at least one, and perhaps two, of our cities near Tientsin. Tientsin is prime for flipping!

 

[DJMGator13]

I picked Japan because I doubt we can get them to align with us against Rome even for a tech, but I could be wrong. It should be easy to get Rome to align against Japan especially for a tech.Problem could be if Rome steam rolls them before we can get active.

I thought Willow bought some knights in Tientsin? How many troops do we have on the island we share with Rome?

BTW, I pre-ordered Civ 4 today.

 

[leif erikson]

I picked Japan because I doubt we can get them to align with us against Rome even for a tech, but I could be wrong. It should be easy to get Rome to align against Japan especially for a tech.Problem could be if Rome steam rolls them before we can get active.

I have a fear of Rome dominating the island as well. If we think Rome will be too much for Japan, perhaps we should align with Rome against Japan and then stab them in the back? May as well be at war with everyone, destroying cities and causing all sorts of damage.

This also hedges our bet so no matter who comes out ahead, we can exploit the one not doing so well.

I was sort of joshing, but maybe this isn't such a bad idea?

I thought Willow bought some knights in Tientsin? How many troops do we have on the island we share with Rome?

Yes, there are 6 Knights and 2 Horses awaiting upgrade. There are also 2 Horses in production ready to be rushed. 10 Knights should be enough to get things started.

BTW, I pre-ordered Civ 4 today.

I better start thinking about that as well?

 

[leif erikson]

Apparently, the GOTM Server is not operating correctly atm.

Whle the GOTM server is down ...
Apologies for the interruption in service on the GOTM web server that hosts your upload/progress/download service, amongst many other facilities. I PM'd Thunderfall to alert him to the problem after it became apparent that it was not a temporary glitch, but he hasn't responded yet.

Here are some fall-back measures to keep the ball rolling while we wait for it to be restored.

If any team happens to produce a new turn set save, please pass it to the next player via post atachment in teh old fashioned way. I'll try to get around the attachments and upload them when the server is restored.

If any team needs access to its last save, please PM me. I *can* get to the server using FTP, and can therefore grab a copy of your last save and post it for you if you need it.

I hope normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.

I have Bluebox's last save on my system. If someone needs it, please ask and I can attach it to our thread.

@Capt., should you complete your turn set and are unable to use the GOTM Server, please attach the save in this thread. Thanks.