sharing intrigue...

It's reliable on the turn that another civ tells you. But the AI doesn't have much in the way of long-term planning, so it recalculates its decisions every turn. So if Alex tells you that Cathy is marching an army towards you on turn 250, it's true. But it might not be true on turn 251.
 
But the AI doesn't have much in the way of long-term planning, so it recalculates its decisions every turn.

Every single turn? I thought it re-rolled at certain predetermined key points during a potential invasion (somewhere had read that it would be 5 turns before they hit your borders they would re-roll the odds and make a decision then) but I had never thought it was every turn.
 
Every single turn? I thought it re-rolled at certain predetermined key points during a potential invasion (somewhere had read that it would be 5 turns before they hit your borders they would re-roll the odds and make a decision then) but I had never thought it was every turn.

I read it somewhere around here, so take from it what you will. It might be every few turns, but either way, it has to recalculate too often to form complex strategies.
 
Every single turn? I thought it re-rolled at certain predetermined key points during a potential invasion (somewhere had read that it would be 5 turns before they hit your borders they would re-roll the odds and make a decision then) but I had never thought it was every turn.

Either way they have sanity checks before, during, and after setting up the invasion and immediately prior to declaring war. So it's very volatile information.
 
I'd say 90 percent of the time you can ignore it. But--if the civ plotting against me is already hostile, then I definitely keep on my guard.

Usually you have to start worrying about it another civ tells you an army or fleet is headed your way. And sometimes it might not occur for 10 or 20 turns...

But when your own spy warns you, then you can expect some trouble.
 
Either way they have sanity checks before, during, and after setting up the invasion and immediately prior to declaring war. So it's very volatile information.

agreed. This is even moreso if you take their advice and build up a defense force that the AI wasn't expecting, so monty moves his 101 jags back home.
 
On my very first game on G&K, I think it was Suleiman that told me Bismark was marching to attack one of my cities. And it came true exactly as he said.
 
On my very first game on G&K, I think it was Suleiman that told me Bismark was marching to attack one of my cities. And it came true exactly as he said.

I've had similar ages ago, same civ as well. Can't remember which other civ told me Bismarck was on his way, but I was sufficiently concerned to bring ships near to home waters. And he did bring army - by water, with virtuallly no escort - absolute slaughter ensued. Actually made me wish that the AI learned with each game (seriously), as he would never do that again.

My experiences match responses already given.
 
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