Speculating on future DLC Civilizations based on Civ6 Civilization Popularity

The Chinese gaming market boomed just around the release of Civ 6, and Civ 6 is much more marketed in China than Civ 5. Many also thought Civ 5 was an "old" game and would prefer the newest installation.

I do agree that many will play Qin because of the bonuses - hence why I said identity is just "likely partly the reason" - but the fact that national identity played an important role in the 2nd biggest civ player community on Steam is also something that I observed as a Chinese player myself. In other words, the "popularity" metric can be fueled by national identity, which would always lean towards the group with the most population, and makes such a metric a bit unbalanced.
Yes, if you work at obvious example, like China, it's big enough market to guess that national identity is important even without looking at this metric. Also, China is one of the core civs in all Civ games, so its absence would trigger negative reaction. (It could be considered a "Basic need" in Kano model)

But let's look at Korea, for example. Big market as well, but not a core civ. The decision to include it is much more complex - is it better to add in vanilla, or add later for a second wave of free marketing? This metric can't answer.
 
In Korea’s case I’m wondering if they’ll be the first of the 3rd batch of dlc. Maybe all three eras at once? Firaxis does seem to save Korea for first expansion of second dlc.
 
So, how did you do?

Britain and Silla are indeed coming, but that is hardly surprising. And it definitely seems as though Firaxis took note of Bolívar’s popularity too!

Other than that, it seems like they were focusing on surprises! No Poland or Australia, but instead we see a few series newcomers like Nepal, Bulgaria and Qajar Iran.
 
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