If we go Archery first can we get BW in time to slave workers when we are want to? I think early skirms are more valuable than early dogs anyways. There is also a 1:5 chance I am next to Babylon, while makes rushing dogs pointless. I also might want to stay a bit closer to home and keep units off my forest hills.
Dan, archery first is pointless. The first build is warrior anyway and then worker. Even if Mali does worker first, if we go archery what will it do with the worker while we wait for bronze? Also it will need to grow size 2 and slave archer as producing it witout chop or slaving will be slow and inneficient.
So even for the 1 civ you say it would benefit, the benefit is questionable.
Now regarding dogs...upgrading is a gamble as it will delay our tech a bit. However while you have 20% to start next to babylon, you have 80% to start next to any other civ. You can have a dog upgrated at the edge of your border at turn 8. If you are 6 tiles away from opponent that is a dog next to tehir capital at turn 14.
It takes 5 turns to grow size 2 another 4 to be able to slave worker and 1 anarchy, that is turn 10 that they will slave worker...that is start archer turn 11 and the fastest you can get it is in 2...so turn 13.
So there is no chance Anyone will have an archer before turn 13 (unless they are on 3 hammer hill)...and turn 13 is if they work hammers after slaving to get archer, thus stalling growth...which most people if they do not see the dog comming will not do.
So it is a gamble that might have a big payoff.
Also important is if you spot a close enemy with your scout to not let them see your scout (if you can avoid it) and know that tehy have natives close.
But at the end of the day it is up to you....
In any case next turn you do not need to run at 0%...so you have 2 more turns of scout movement before you decide.