Take-Two CEO Insists Projections for the 'Lifetime Value' of Civilization 7 Are 'Very Consistent With Our Initial Expectations for the Title'

[The_J]

IGN has posted today an article called "Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick Insists Projections for the 'Lifetime Value' of Civilization 7 Are 'Very Consistent With Our Initial Expectations for the Title' — Despite 'Slow Start'".
IGN has interviewed the CEO of Take-Two, Strauss Zelnick, and he said "I think the key thing is that Civ has always been a slow burn. It's always been a title that had — I'm not really a big believer in the long tail theory of the entertainment business — but Civ is an example of that theory. And right now our projections for the lifetime value of the title are very consistent with our initial expectations for the title."
He also admits that the start was not great, overall, but that this still does not impede the sales projections (as just mentioned).
You can read the whole article here.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

FYI, it is already being discussed for several pages in this thread:

https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...culation-thread.697557/page-165#post-16853913

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick Insists Projections for the 'Lifetime Value' of Civilization 7 Are 'Very Consistent With Our Initial Expectations for the Title' — Despite 'Slow Start' - IGN

Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick Insists Projections for the 'Lifetime Value' of Civilization 7 Are 'Very Consistent With Our Initial Expectations for the Title' — Despite 'Slow Start' - IGN

We’re now half a year since the troubled launch of Civilization 7, which has fewer players on Steam than both Civilization 6 and the 15-year-old Civilization 5. But according to the boss of Take-Two, Civ 7 is projected to meet the company's initial internal expectations over the course of its...

www.ign.com

 

[Krikkit1]

FYI, it is already being discussed for several pages in this thread:

https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...culation-thread.697557/page-165#post-16853913

Yes please merge

 

[SupremacyKing2]

Yes please merge

I am not a mod. I don't have the ability to merge threads. But hopefully, a mod does see this post and merges them.

 

[Aquila SPQR]

Yeah, sure.

 

[Kwami]

I am not a mod. I don't have the ability to merge threads. But hopefully, a mod does see this post and merges them.

But a mod made this thread, so...

 

[Smegger213]

If they wanted to achieve around 7000 to 8000 concurrent players per day. Then I guess they succeeded lol.

 

[Maiq]

But a mod made this thread, so...

At least they are living up to their pfp

 

[The_J]

I hear the arguments here, but I also need to consider the following: Having a dedicated thread for a news item makes searching a lot easier, not only for search engines, but also for new users who don't read threads of a couple of 100 pages. It directly shows what is going on, without the need to know which thread in a forum has what type of discussion going on. Therefore a separate thread for this is warranted.
Thanks.

 

[Trav'ling Canuck]

One stat from SteamDB that I just noticed is that Civ 7 is currently ranked #8 in "Wishlist Activity". I can't find the definition of this stat, and I haven't seen it before so having been watching how it may have changed since launch, but that sounds to me like there may be quite a few prospective buyers sitting on the sidelines.

That may be part of the reason for the CEO's optimism that lifetime sales will still reach their goals. They may expect to convert many of those wishlisters over time.

 

[Kwami]

One stat from SteamDB that I just noticed is that Civ 7 is currently ranked #8 in "Wishlist Activity". I can't find the definition of this stat, and I haven't seen it before so having been watching how it may have changed since launch, but that sounds to me like there may be quite a few prospective buyers sitting on the sidelines.

That may be part of the reason for the CEO's optimism that lifetime sales will still reach their goals. They may expect to convert many of those wishlisters over time.

I think that Civ7 moving up to #22 on the best selling list during Steam's 4X sales event is evidence that a lot of potential players are just waiting for a good sale. If you don't consider "free" games or the Steam Deck (not a game), then Civ7 is actually sitting at #11 on the best sellers list right now. That's actually pretty good! And none of the other 4X and grand strategy games features in the 4X sale are outselling Civ7. Age of Wonders 4 is just a couple of spots back, but that game just got a new expansion, too.

 

[Smegger213]

I think that Civ7 moving up to #22 on the best selling list during Steam's 4X sales event is evidence that a lot of potential players are just waiting for a good sale. If you don't consider "free" games or the Steam Deck (not a game), then Civ7 is actually sitting at #11 on the best sellers list right now. That's actually pretty good! And none of the other 4X and grand strategy games features in the 4X sale are outselling Civ7. Age of Wonders 4 is just a couple of spots back, but that game just got a new expansion, too.

Civ 7 may be riding up in the charts (No 23 at the moment). But its not being born out with the number of players playing count. The last 30 days average has now dropped to 6822. That's a big drop from when the average was over 18000 in March. Plus it still has more negative reviews than positive.

 

[bladex1200]

I think the big reason for his belief in "long-tail theory" as it were is that Civilization and, by extension, the genre of 4x and strategy games in-general does historically have a long tail. I mean, look at the revival the Age of Empires series has experienced, which literally began with the community running AoE2 multiplayer unofficially for over a decade before the game got a revisit by Microsoft. If you're a CEO and you witness that, and you look at a franchise like Civilization - which still has loyal fans playing older installments - I can 100% believe that you'd confidently assert that your latest entry will have a long tail just like those before it.

Strategy gaming is experiencing something of a renaissance right now, with tons of early-2000s RTS games having already received or being in the process of receiving their remasters (Dawn of War's remaster is set to release this week) and new RTS games on the horizon. While obviously RTS and TBS/4x are not the same genre, it's fair to say that these kinds of games where theorycrafting and challenge runs and just long average playtime per game can keep interest high for months and years afterwards are definitely becoming popular again.

Civ 7 has received mixed reviews but the game is functional and people aren't mass-refunding their copies. It's fair for someone who is viewing this from a business perspective to believe this is simply a growing pain and that as the game matures, it will win back many who naysayed some of its design choices.

 

[Wrenched]

Dawn of War's remaster is set to release this week

I am pumped for the Dawn of War remaster!

I was playing the original release recently but really looking forward to the remaster updated to better play on today's hardware. Supposedly the devs also preserved mod compatibility too which is a nice touch.

Stardock is also returning to the Elemental series 4X with a reimagining/remaster and also announced Ashes of the Singularity 2...both IPs which I adore.

Great time for 4X and RTS.

 

[vorlon_mi]

I'm quietly impressed by the CEO's comments. Unlike the goofy tech CEO lampooned by these guys https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCchBatdUMZoMfJ3rIzgV84g (who are hilarious, in my opinion), I have to believe that the leaders at Firaxis and Take-Two had some sensible, candid meetings about the projections for Civ7. I think that they knew some of their changes would be divisive. I think that they had (and have) projections for revenue and sales that included multiple levels of positive and negative reviews.

I would expect that they considered the possibility of a reception similar to what Beyond Earth experienced. I imagine that tough questions were asked about Ed's and the team's commitment to the vision of multiple ages and civs aligned to each age. If I were asked to do a multi-year revenue projection for Civ7, I would include sales and bundles at specific times; releases of additional civs and leaders; plans for a first expansion that changes elements of the gameplay, e.g., religion, adding a 4th age.

On one hand, I expect that members of Firaxis who are closest to the design and implementation of Civ7 wanted SO MUCH for the fan base to embrace their new game. Reading the negative reviews and seeing the lower-than-older-games player numbers has to sting. So disappointing.

On the other hand, I expect that many of them knew that this design was a step out, a big change, a risk, and that lots of people might hate it.
I expect that they are taking a view with a longer time horizon, confident in their plans for 2026.

 

[moondog385]

This indicates to me they plan to support and refine this game for some time which is good news. Corporations are awfully risk averse and I was worried they’d drop Civ 7 — which, to be clear, does have issues that need addressing. Of course, this could just be a PR statement and not his actual views.

 

[reddishrecue]

I didn't think they drop civilization 7 just like that. If the sales are meeting their goals then they will continue with it.

 

[McSpank01]

I dunno, this all sounds like corporate speak to me. It is always better to put a brave face on things and project a positive outlook. It would be disastrous to the game if the CEO came out all doom and gloom and suggested it was looking bad. That would have a snowball effect and people would stop buying it altogether. Projecting the idea that this is a game that will get years and years of support is exactly what he should be doing.
The problem is going to be whether there is ever going to be a point where the game becomes low key raved about, where there are a raft of YouTube videos titled 'Firaxis turned Civ 7 around' and 'How Firaxis made Civ 7 the best in the franchise'. Thats when you will get a return by the players, where there are just communities of players just playing and sharing streams and Civ 7 is the go to 4X game.

I don't really know what they need to do to get to that point, but it seems like it is well off in the distance right now.

 

[Siptah]

@McSpank01 i agree with you that this is the only thing they could have said. Yet, they did go forward and state it - which I consider reassuring and positive. They could have also remained silent for some more time.

As to what needs to happen to „turn it around“, there are better threads to discuss this than this one, but for me personally, the most pressing issue is how boring and predetermined modern is, which makes the civ choices inconsequential, thus making also the second transition pointless. If this is changed, I would would probably go from „civ 7 antiquity is the best civ has ever been“ to „civ 7 is the best civ has ever been“

 

[GIO888]

"slow start"? I agree with the "corporate speak" statement! Civ VII doesn't register on Steam top 100 - Civ VI does, respectably, and Civ V is in there, for goodness sake!

I've played Civ and loved it since 1992-3. Proper Civ Junkie? I haven't got Civ VII yet.

I know I'm far from alone. I think that says a lot?