The Number Crunching Thread

Discussion in 'Civ5 - Strategy & Tips' started by alpaca, Oct 8, 2010.

1. OlleusDeity

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Beyond the Veil
Only if you assume a fair coin. If, after looking after the first 4 throws, you see HHHH; you are entirely justified in believing that the coin is biased and that the next throw is more likely to be H than T.

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so since there are only two possible outcomes - HHHHT or HHHHH, what are the chances that it is one of those two?

or would you be saying that chance (HHHHT) + chance (HHHHH) < 100%, given HHHH already exists?

3. vexingknows

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Dec 24, 2010
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that's an interesting question: at what point can you assume the coin is unfair? my statistics is a bit rusty but i think a formula that may apply would say that with a sample size of four, and all heads, you can only approximate within an error of 50% at 95.54% confidence that the result will always be heads... ie you cannot assume the coin is unfair with that much confidence.

thankfully i can contribute something to the actual number crunching too:

cities have 6 base combat strength.

each population point adds 1/4th a point.
it increases exponentially with number of techs, it takes something like 12 techs to add 1 cs initially, you get next point after about 4 then 3 etc, until in later eras you get a point every tech and a couple later ones give two points. all techs grant 48 points.
being on a hill grants a 1.15 multiplier, rounded up.

i don't know what garrisons do offhand but it shouldn't be too hard to figure out

4. eazyseekerWarlord

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They add 20% of their CS to the CS of the city, IIRC.

5. RD-BHHuman

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Formerly: Missouri, USA
The chance of H*H*H*H*H = 1/32.

The chance of H*H*H*H*T = 1/32.

The chance next flip is H = 1/2.

The chance next flip is T = 1/2.

6. TrestonChieftain

Joined:
Dec 9, 2011
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My guess is that he's simply challenging the assumption that heads or tails are the only two possible outcomes.

Some people like to live on the edge.

7. Ran88dom99Chieftain

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May 31, 2011
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Pls put this thread in the war academy or THE wiki or something.

8. Lord_BubuChieftain

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Jan 20, 2012
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not that it really matters, but it should be
* (100 - (cristo redentor + piety finisher reductions)) or
* (100 - cristo redentor - piety finisher reductions)

for those who make a Excel spreadsheet.

9. Siegfried_KChieftain

Joined:
Mar 26, 2014
Messages:
2
I changed "CIV5Technologies.xml",
and this formel isn't more correct ?!

marafon, difficult:8, two civ.,
Start...
research 7.425 will be 7.425
research 13.095 will be 13.095
research 63.180 will be 63.180
research 93.150 will be 93.150 ist ok ! but :

research 384.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -45.495
research 564.000 will changed to +134.504
research 2.511.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -65.979
research 3.321.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -114.972
research 11.169.000 will changed to (minus ! ) +2.086

Why ??
what's wrong in your formel ??
C = ceiling( B / ( 1 + floor( M * K / T ) / 100 ) )

I changed just "B" and this can not make sth negative.
It see like sinus : +, -, +, - ...