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The Number Crunching Thread

Discussion in 'Civ5 - Strategy & Tips' started by alpaca, Oct 8, 2010.

  1. Olleus

    Olleus Deity

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2005
    Messages:
    6,478
    Location:
    Beyond the Veil
    Only if you assume a fair coin. If, after looking after the first 4 throws, you see HHHH; you are entirely justified in believing that the coin is biased and that the next throw is more likely to be H than T.
     
  2. MadDjinn

    MadDjinn Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    4,554
    so since there are only two possible outcomes - HHHHT or HHHHH, what are the chances that it is one of those two? :mischief:

    or would you be saying that chance (HHHHT) + chance (HHHHH) < 100%, given HHHH already exists? :crazyeye:
     
  3. vexing

    vexing knows

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2010
    Messages:
    2,668
    that's an interesting question: at what point can you assume the coin is unfair? my statistics is a bit rusty but i think a formula that may apply would say that with a sample size of four, and all heads, you can only approximate within an error of 50% at 95.54% confidence that the result will always be heads... ie you cannot assume the coin is unfair with that much confidence.


    thankfully i can contribute something to the actual number crunching too:

    cities have 6 base combat strength.

    each population point adds 1/4th a point.
    it increases exponentially with number of techs, it takes something like 12 techs to add 1 cs initially, you get next point after about 4 then 3 etc, until in later eras you get a point every tech and a couple later ones give two points. all techs grant 48 points.
    being on a hill grants a 1.15 multiplier, rounded up.

    i don't know what garrisons do offhand but it shouldn't be too hard to figure out
     
  4. eazyseeker

    eazyseeker Warlord

    Joined:
    May 1, 2011
    Messages:
    214
    They add 20% of their CS to the CS of the city, IIRC.
     
  5. RD-BH

    RD-BH Human

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2009
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    818
    Location:
    Formerly: Missouri, USA
    The chance of H*H*H*H*H = 1/32.

    The chance of H*H*H*H*T = 1/32.

    The chance next flip is H = 1/2.

    The chance next flip is T = 1/2.
     
  6. Treston

    Treston Chieftain

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4
    My guess is that he's simply challenging the assumption that heads or tails are the only two possible outcomes.

    Some people like to live on the edge.
     
  7. Ran88dom99

    Ran88dom99 Chieftain

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    40
    Pls put this thread in the war academy or THE wiki or something.
     
  8. Lord_Bubu

    Lord_Bubu Chieftain

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2012
    Messages:
    61
    not that it really matters, but it should be
    * (100 - (cristo redentor + piety finisher reductions)) or
    * (100 - cristo redentor - piety finisher reductions)

    for those who make a Excel spreadsheet. :)
     
  9. Siegfried_K

    Siegfried_K Chieftain

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2014
    Messages:
    2
    I changed "CIV5Technologies.xml",
    and this formel isn't more correct ?!

    marafon, difficult:8, two civ.,
    Start...
    research 7.425 will be 7.425
    research 13.095 will be 13.095
    research 63.180 will be 63.180
    research 93.150 will be 93.150 ist ok ! but :

    research 384.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -45.495
    research 564.000 will changed to +134.504
    research 2.511.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -65.979
    research 3.321.000 will changed to (minus ! ) -114.972
    research 11.169.000 will changed to (minus ! ) +2.086

    Why ??
    what's wrong in your formel ??
    C = ceiling( B / ( 1 + floor( M * K / T ) / 100 ) )

    I changed just "B" and this can not make sth negative.
    It see like sinus : +, -, +, - ...
     

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