It's clearly not "best in all cases". It is stronger than I expected, however, and I think it's an open question whether it's best in some cases. If so, I want to understand how to recognize those cases, and how to execute the strategy properly. Forcing the strategy, with a good leader but random start positions, seems like a good way to figure those things out.
Fortunately, this little experiment will be interrupted in a few days by BtS.
peace,
lilnev
Lilnev,
You are about a 10x better player than I am, but I'll take a stab at this anyway (at least you can respect my age)
Here are some of my take-aways. First, I had absolutely no discussions with the game designers, nor know any of them, but I think I understand some key design concepts. I'm almost positive that designers would say something like: 'We designed the choice between lightbulbing and settling to be a difficult choice, which stronger players will know which is best based on circumstances. Of course, if one is always better, then it isn't a game choice, it's just a 'sucker play' to induce weaker players to do something stupid.'
OK, so when is one better? Clearly, since settling works every turn, the longer one settles, the greater the benefit. On the other hand, lightbulbing can give a big tech early. bBt the key here is for a long-term economic strategy, settling should be superior.
The wonder spam produces a lot of great people, and gets them early.
Very few people have mentioned what is, to me, a key to wonder-spamming, which is by not building settlers, and not needing a lot of workers, the capital city can produce wonders. That is why he gets them before the AI even at high levels, and of course the right leader and resources help. Not only aren't turns taken up, but population growth isn't stopped. The settled capital tries to make up for not having so many cities. Clearly, culture flipping cities can occur with so many wonders.
So, I disagree with pretty much everyone on the board about the 'key' to the strategy. To me, the key is that he isn't building a lot of settlers, so his capital city, which is his richest, builds the wonders, gets great people, and settles them. At some point, with a tech lead, he goes on the offensive.
So, best characteristics:
Industrious and/or philosophical leader
Stone/marble nearby
Good capital, rich in food and production
Nearby lands NOT as good. This to me is a key point. If the nearby lands are rich, getting those settlers out may be better
Relatively peaceful neighbors
Worst case(s) for me to try it
Financial leader
My UU is good for early warmongering; I want to set up an ability to expand
Ability to get an early religion, will want to build a shrine and spread maybe
Nearby lands are rich and fertile
Poor production resources nearby
Good strategic resources nearby (If I have iron, copper, and horses, and my neighbors don't guess what I'm doing)
Nasty neighbors
We will never get everything in our favor, but the more like the favorable and less like the unfavorable I get, the more likely I will employ it.
I didn't mention barbarians, because it's a maybe. IF barbarians are very strong, then it is harder to pull off UNLESS I get the great wall, in which case it is easier to do these things while the barbs kill the AI. Of course, in that case, again, every strategy is better! If the barbs are weaker, it's easier to get away with fewer troops.
Best wishes,
Breunor