This is why I think there will be a Lib-Lab coalition

ComradeDavo

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Some of you probably know that i've been predicting a Liberal-Labour coalition after the next general election, but I don't think many people are really taking the idea seriously. Well take a look at these poll numbers....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6378231.stm

Poll boost for Cameron's Tories

The poll suggests Cameron's support has grown
Support for Labour under Gordon Brown could drop to 29%, while the Tories led by David Cameron would attract 42%, an opinion poll suggests.
With Mr Brown expected to take over as PM, the ICM/Guardian phone poll asked 1,000 adults at the weekend which party - with a named leader - they preferred.

The same question a month ago suggested Labour under Brown would gain 31% and Conservatives under Cameron 39%.

The Lib Dems under Sir Menzies Campbell dropped to 17% from 19% a month ago.

When asked about voting intentions - regardless of leaders - the poll suggests 40% of respondents supported the Conservatives, up three points on January.

Support for Labour was static on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats lost 4 points to drop to 19%.

* ICM interviewed 1,000 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between February 16 to 18.
I do not believe that is suffiecent enough for Cameron to achive a majority. Tatical voting and the first past the post system wil see the Tories gain many MP's, but I predict also the Lib Dems gaining MP's - there overall vote will be down but they are second to Labour in over a 100 seats and with the Labour vote heamoraging to the Tories the Lib Dems will most likely pick some of these seats up.

So...thoughts? Is my prediction completely wacky? Anyone have their own preditions?
 
I don't understand British politics, but I do enjoy the phrase "Lib-Lab". I am therefore in favor of this coalition so people can say "Lib-Lab" more often.
 
I hope not!

Labour has had its socialist image tarnished too much by traitors like Blair,I hope an alliance with the Libs will tarnish it even further...

But if thats what it has to take to prevent the Torries from taking power..
 
Is there a breakdown of these polls by district (constituency)? Given that Britain has a non PR system and a third party large enough to bleed a nontrivial number of votes from the major parties, then it seems quite plausible that the Tories could get an absolute majority in the next Parliament even if their current numbers stay flat.
 
Is there a breakdown of these polls by district (constituency)? Given that Britain has a non PR system and a third party large enough to bleed a nontrivial number of votes from the major parties, then it seems quite plausible that the Tories could get an absolute majority in the next Parliament even if their current numbers stay flat.
I haven't seena breakdown, but i'm basing my prediction on the last couple of elections and the fact that the Tories are gaining those supporters from Labour voters, thus it's going to be those close seats where Labour lose out.

Somethign that i've mentioned a few time son these forums is that the curerent Tory leadership is alienating it's hardcore right,the anti-euorpe types that UKIP could poach. In rural areas this will help the Lib Dems, and depending on how many Labour voters tatically vote Lib Dem to 'keep the Tories out' this would probably balance any loss or gain between the Tory and Lib Dem parties. Thus I think that both the Lib Dems and the Tories will gain Labour seats.
 
It's not impossible, but don't count one such a government accomplishing anything useful. Remember what happened the last time there was a Lib-Lab coalition.

(US readers: This was in the late 1970s under James Callaghan, whose minority government was so impotent that the result was the election of Thatcher).

I'm predicting a small majority for one of the main parties, probably the Tories, but it's too early to call as yet.
 
Trying to determine what the results in seats would be in a General Election given a percentage swing to or from the different parties is very difficult because of things like tactical voting.
It is even harder to do now because if the recent boundary changes which on the whole are to the Conservative and LibDem’s advantage and against Labour.

A uniform swing calculator can be downloaded :
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/predicting-results-2

And it shows that:
A Con/Lab/Lib percentage of 42/29/17 would mean a Tory majority of 74. (The Guardian reckoned it would be a Tory majority of 50).
A 40/31/19 percentage would mean a hung parliament but, crucially, the Lab and LD seats would not be a majority either – indeed they would together be less than the Tory total meaning they would need the help of the minorities to form a government.

As for a Lib-Lab pact – isn’t there just as likely to be (and some of you LibDemmers might want to look away now) a Con-Lib pact?
Aren’t the New Tories very, very liberal and isn’t it fair to say Cameron is the best LibDem leader the LibDems never had (since Lloyd George)? :mischief: Just like Blair is the best Tory leader the Old Tories never had (since Thatch)?

Cameron might lose some votes to UKIP but he reckons he will gain far more Lib Demmers and liberal Labourites to more than make up for those losses.
Like it or not, the New Tories are very much encamped in the LibDem back garden in so many ways.

I think Cameron probably welcomes the UKIP defections anyway as they remove the ‘fruit cakes and closet racists’ from the party. Long gone are the days of denouncing the Tories as racists or anti EU. Many Lib Demmers are coming to realise this and would not be too adverse to a Con-Lib pact.

This is just my opinion of course but have you heard the Tories and LibDems attacking each other like they used to? Have you heard the talk about the possible defection of an LD MP to the Tories? Just talk, I admit, but the fact it is even talked about shows how far Cameron has changed the New Tories.

And if a Lab-Lib pact cannot make a government without help from the minorities then wouldn’t it make a lot of sense to join in with the very liberal Cameron? :mischief: :mischief:
 
What with the Lib DEm membership sonsiting of many left-wingers, and their support comign from the Liberal left, an un-holy alliance wouldn't be the most wisest of courses.
 
I can see a Con-Lib pact being reasonably effective, especially since a lot of the far-right Tories* would probably break away leaving a relatively center-left Conservative Party (Thatcher'd turn in her grave if she was dead). It would also mean that we could have general LibDem** policies, without their looney pro-life stuff coming through.

*
OK, for the benefit of those observing from accross the Atlantic, here's a very very brief overview of British politics. Many Americans struggle to understand how British politics work, that's ok, many Brits struggle to understand how British politics works also.

History.

Traditionally there were two major players in British politics. We'll start with, based on proportin of elections won to contested, the most successful political party in world History. The British Conservative Party. The roots of the Conservatives go back to the time of Oliver Cromwell, when the monarchy were in excile bandits engaged the Lord Protector's army in guerilla warfare, these Torys (literally "thieves"), were in the main Cavaliers who had fled at the end of the English Civil War. After the Restoration of the Monarchy, the Torys became a legitimate political party, their main area of support was in the English Country side as they were seen to represent traditional Royalist England and were (and still largely are) the party of the "statu quo". After the Restoration, many parliamentarians remained, indeed the new King even recognised any knighthood or peerages granted by Cromwell and thus even the nobility had people from lowley, anti-royalist backgrounds. These people united for protection and entered Parliament as The Whig Party (the name comes from "whig" sound Scottish Parliamentarians used to shout to urge their horses on in battle). The Whigs on the whole stood left of the Conservatives (although would be considered center-right by modern interpretation). They supported US independance (hence the American Whig Party of early US politics), supported votes for non-landowners, votes for women, Irish independance (after changing their name to the Liberal Party) etc. Their is one major black mark on Whig history. They believed in lessay fare politics, which is essentially the idea that Government should never interfere with private indeviduals. This meant that they blocked the Tories proposed measurse to limit how much land owners in Ireland could demand from their tenants and thus propogated the Potato Famine. That said, they almost redeemed themselves in the mid-19th Century when, now as the Liberal Party, they proposed an Irish Independance bill. Unfortunately the Tories, now know as the Conservative Party, blocked this bill and Ireland remained part of the UK. In (I think) 1900 Trade Unions were legalised by The Liberal Party, allowing as a side effect the formation of the Labour Party. The Labour Party were funded by the Trade Unions and thus stood much to the left of the Liberals, the Conservatives were having a fit that Socialists should be allowed into politics, but on the whole the Labour Party were not taken seriously, and general consesus was that they'd merge with the Liberal Party within a few years. I wont go into detail but a series of unexpected events happened which changed the face of British politics. The Liberals again proposed an Irish Independance bill, which was passed, however, in the meantime 80% of the province of Ulster had industrialised and many people didn't want to be ruled by what they percieved as "country yokels" in Dublin and went as far as to arm themselves (illegally imported weapons from France and Germany) stating that they would "violently oppose any Irish Government forced upon them". This was the conception of the Ulster Freedom Fighters (or Ulster Defence Army) and the start of the modern troubles in Ireland. The Conservatives fully supported the UFF (ironic as the Tories were a largely rural Catholic group and the IFF were an urban Protestant group). This resulted in a massive split in the Liberal Party, leading to an election where Liberals even stood against each other for the same seat in Parliament. This pretty much destroyed the Liberals. They became a laughing stock in British politics at a time when center ground was not popluar in an increasing polarised climate. their swan song was probably their involvement in the coalition Governments of the War years. Traditional Liberal support shifted either to the Conservatives (about 20%) or to the Labour Party (80%), meaning that in the first post WWII election, Churchill's landslide defeat was not at the hands of the Liberals, but at the hands of the Labour Party (depite modern perceptions Churchill was never an overly popular figure in British Politics, he rested primarily on the fact that he was decended from British war hero Sir John Churchill and his claims that the Labour Party were akin to the NAZI Party destroyed what credibility he did have). Clement Atlee's Labour Government of the post war years had the biggest majorty in British history (a majority that has only been beat once sice, by Tony Blair in 1997), they were undoubtably the most radical Britsih Government and set up things like the Welfare State, National Health Service, Nationalised Transport, and Public Services, and essentially formed the Socialist Britain that has not yet been fully destroyed (despite Thatcher's best efforts which succeeded in undoing about 90% of what Atlee achieved).

Today.

So, the later part of the 20th Century saw two major players, The Conservatives (similiar in outlook to the Republicans), and the Labour Party (traditionally Socialist), and a sizable third party The Liberal Party (similar in outlook to the Democrats, indeed the Liberal Party merged in 1988 with a breakaway group from the Labour Party and are now known as the Liberal Democrat Party, or LibDems for short). From 1979 the Conservatives won a succession of elections under first Margaret Thatcher (there's no two-term rule in Britain, a leader can theoretically continue as long as they keep winning elections), and later John Major, however increasing sleaze scandals, along with continually failing to deliver on promises of "better times ahead" caused a growing disenchantment with the Conservatives, in 1997 The Labour Party (unofficially known as New Labour) under Tony Blair took full advantage and by dropping a lot of traditional Labour policies (including removal of the word "Socialist" from their charter) and claiming the center ground, in the process winning a lot of Conservative votes. They won a landslide victory, and many predicted a repeat of the reforms of 1945. This was a very different Labour party form Atlees though. In adopting a more traditional Conservative stance they alienated a lot of old Labour supporters,and Tony Blair's Government has been far from Socialist. As the Conservatives have gradually got back on their feet some tradional voters are seeping back away from Labour to their old party, leading to the situation described in the first post. British Politics has become very fragmented. Recent years has seen a number of fringe partys often issue-specific such UKIP (UK Independace Party wishing to withdraw from the EU), Veritas (essentially old Tory moderate-right politics, very anti-immigration), The Liberals (those opposed to the merger with the Social Democrats are still there claiming to be the real Liberal Party), Socialist Labour (those opposed to New Labour who would prefer a return to Labour Party policies of 1945, they get a lot of verbal support, but little electoral support), the Green Party (environmentalists, act more as a pressure group than as electoral candidates), the Scottish National Party (campaigning for Scottish Independance - obviously only exist in Scotland and struggle to get support there outside Glasgow), Clywd Cymrie (as with SNP but for Wales), Sinn Fein (campaigning (and shooting people) for Northern Ireland to become part of the Irish Republic). The good ol' British Communist Party are still there and not really achieving any more than they have over the last 100 years. More worrying are the British National Party, or BNP. Headed by Nick Griffin they are a breakaway group from the National Front (NF). On the surface they appear reasonable, claiming to stand for "British, and particularly English culture". they oppose immigration but state that they are not for repatriation. In truth people who have joined an then fled reveal that their policies are almost idential to those of the German NAZI party and that once in power they would seek to eliminte any non-Celto-Saxons from the Isles, retake the rest of Ireland and of course withdraw from the EU. The BNP are small but growing, absurdly a large portion of BNP support comes from people who are ethnically Asian. less than 50% of those eligible to vote in the UK do meaning that it's easier for fringe partys to grab seats on councils and possibly even Westminster if the turnout keeps dropping. Many blame apathy though it's likely that the apparant lack of differnce between the modern Conservative Party and the modern "new" Labour Party is causing people to look elsewhere, or to get so jaded that they just don't bother.

Right I've waffled far more than I intended, and am even now thinking I've missed stuff (such as joining the EU) and am sure Brits will be yelling at their screen because I've left something they consider paramount out. For those ouside the UK hope this has made it slightly clearer, or at least made you realise why it it ain't clear?

Smash the BNP, before the BNP smashes you.
 
I don't understand British politics, but I do enjoy the phrase "Lib-Lab". I am therefore in favor of this coalition so people can say "Lib-Lab" more often.

Heh. If you like that, then last time the Lib-labs had a coalition, it was called the "lib-lab pact" how does that grab you ????!!!!!

The numberless minions of the Lib-Lab Pact shall destroy you all!!!
 
I can see the Greens merging with the Conservatives. Which would of course piss the tree-huggers off no end.
 
What with the Lib DEm membership sonsiting of many left-wingers, and their support comign from the Liberal left, an un-holy alliance wouldn't be the most wisest of courses.

Thing is davo, it's hard for a party consisting exclusivly of left wingers to achieve power. It's a broad coalition that always brings a Labour government to power, and the problem is that New Labour has alienated its traditional supporters, ie: trade unionists (privaisation) , leftwingers (everything), pacifists (war mongering), progressive liberals, like yourself (democracy, constitutional reform) so it's membership has really hollowed out and the party now has a debt of some 20 millions so when it comes to fighting cameron in the next election we are in a pickle.

If Labour looses power (something I will be working hard to avoid) the corporate and big business sponsors will loose intrest as they have no intrinsic intrest in the aims of Labour or socialism and just want to cosy up to those in power whoever that might be.


I think the point of this of all this should not be lib-lab / con-lib pacts and what not per se but rather, how can those of us who have a similar agenda and vision for the UK be bought together in the face of institutionalised elitist power?

As far as I know Davo, you and I share very similar ideas, ( with the exception of the legalisation of canabis) but we both agree on constitutional reform (or more acurately a far quicker pace of constitutional reform) , for example, something shared by a great many people.
 
I heard the other day that Labour are back to being 90% funded by Trade Unions, it's hard to see how they'll remain a largely right-wing party under those conditions.

Always remember Tony Blair PM is an anagram of My Tori Plan B.
 
I heard the other day that Labour are back to being 90% funded by Trade Unions, it's hard to see how they'll remain a largely right-wing party under those conditions.

Always remember Tony Blair PM is an anagram of My Tori Plan B.

Intresting, do you have a link?
 
Sadly no, I was told in the real world which is why I don't know how true it is.
 
oh dear god David cameron is the next marget thatcher don't let him fool you, he is the devil reborn :devil:
 
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