TOP SECRET (Please Enter)

[SilentConfusion]

So much to learn from this MTD and so little time to learn it. Aarrgh.

There is not a huge rush to learn it all now. First of all, I will make sure it doesn't fall by the wayside at the beginning, giving people time to see how to do it and learn as we go.

Also I can help suggest things to start with if you're wanting to learn some of this stuff. Some stuff is more important than others. Also some of the stuff can be used at the beginning, while some stuff has to wait until we meet people.

Don't feel like you are rushed to learn this stuff.

 

[Gingi]

There is not a huge rush to learn it all now. First of all, I will make sure it doesn't fall by the wayside at the beginning, giving people time to see how to do it and learn as we go.

Also I can help suggest things to start with if you're wanting to learn some of this stuff. Some stuff is more important than others. Also some of the stuff can be used at the beginning, while some stuff has to wait until we meet people.

Don't feel like you are rushed to learn this stuff.

OK, that works. So what are your suggestions? (What's the most important? What can be used before we meet anyone?)

 

[SilentConfusion]

OK, that works. So what are your suggestions? (What's the most important? What can be used before we meet anyone?)

The score analysis stuff is useful early before we meet people, and it is also not too complicated.

The other thing that can be used right away is the demographics screen info.

Understanding all the numbers in the demo screen can take a little time, but you could choose to focus on learning a few at a time.

If you have any questions when you're looking it over please let me know.

 

[Gingi]

The score analysis stuff is useful early before we meet people, and it is also not too complicated.

The other thing that can be used right away is the demographics screen info.

Understanding all the numbers in the demo screen can take a little time, but you could choose to focus on learning a few at a time.

If you have any questions when you're looking it over please let me know.

Thanks. I'm using it right now on our pitboss. Except there's nothing really to see because half the people don't have a city yet. The average life expectancy is 43.

Damn, where are you guys, the Stone Age? Oh wait, it's 4000 BC.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Reminder to all turn-players. Please take at least a screenshot of the demographics screen each turn. A screenshot showing the scores would also be nice, just in case CivStats is down. You can post it in the turn log if you like or you can post it here. I will try to make sure to log on and get some if the turn-player forgets.

While people are settling their first city it would be helpful to get screenshots of the demographics screen between each teams turn if possible. Please make a note of which teams have settled at the time of the screenshot.. After the initial city settling it is not as important to get screenshots between people's turns, but please feel free to take more screenshots for us to analyze.

One note on taking screenshots of the demographics screen. If they are not posted right away, please make some kind of note (i.e. renaming the file) as to which turn the screenshot was taken.

If anyone has any questions about what kind of information could help us, please ask.

At the beginning the info that could help us is the score, demo screen, and Top 5 City screen (unlikely but possible).

 

[remake20]

I think I will need to withdraw my position here. Sorry.

 

[SilentConfusion]

I think I will need to withdraw my position here. Sorry.

Understood. There is a lot of things that Team AMAZON will need to do and this is only one of them. And as far as I'm concerned there are no hard and fast positions. Anyone can jump in and help or comment at anytime.

 

[SilentConfusion]

The game has started and the first turn is running.

Lord Parkin settled a city for his team only 7 minutes after the game opened up. He did not however hit end turn. Some of the teams will want to get demo information after each team settles. I will get a demo screen shot now. But keep in mind LP is clever, he might leave his tile assignment in a confusing setting just to throw people like us off. So I would take his MFG and CY numbers with a grain of salt, but some of his other numbers he can't hide. We might consider doing this ourselves. Set our tiles for something that would indicate maybe a warrior (high hammers) then switch back after other teams had settled confusing the issue.

EDIT: Whether we think that switching tiles to confuse our opponents is kosher or not is up to us to decide. It only hurts those people who try to log in and get demo screens after every team settles allowing them to identify which demo numbers go with which team. This only works on the first turn, and demo numbers after that are a mixed bag.

If a team were to try and confuse those who are demo checking between people settling they would:
1. settle their capitol, but don't end turn
2. arrange their tiles in a way that they do not intend to keep them (i.e. max hammer setup such as someone might choose to put out a first warrior)
3. let other teams log in and try to get demoshots
4. wait for another team to settle and switch your tiles right afterwards to the desired configuration
5. then when another team logs in to take a demo shot they won't know for sure which are your new MFG/CY numbers and which belong to the team that just settled.

Note that this actually helps that other team hide which tiles exactly they are working to start with as well. This is not fool-proof, but might confuse some. Only MFG, CY, and maybe GNP would be affected. They will still know land area and life expectancy.

 

[SilentConfusion]

In the last post I said I'd get a screenshot after Team Sirius (LP) settled, but I did not. That's because our fearless Captain and first turn-player Sommerswerd was already ahead of me.

So here is the demo screen after Sirius settled. Note they have not ended turn and I wouldn't trust the MFG and CY numbers as of right now.

And a little while later Team Mavericks (DMOC) settled, and Sommerswerd captured this screenshot:

Now to analyze this info.

From the first screenshot:

Team Sirius:
GNP: 18
MFG: 5
CY: 2
Soldiers: 2k (warrior)
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

This tells us that Sirius has 7 land tiles in his first 9, which means he's coastal (not a big surprise). His Life Expectancy is 85, which means he has 6 healthy faces. If we assume he is on a river (+2), and count the +2 from difficulty level that means he only has 2 more health due to forests. This means he probably has 4 or 5 forests in his BFC. His MFG is 5, which tells us that he settled in place on a plains hill and he has a forested plains hill to work in his first 9 tiles. I wouldn't trust that he stays with this tile setup, but at least we know he has the ability to put out 5 hammers from the start.

The second screenshot doesn't show us as perfect numbers, but we can figure out a lot.

Team Mavericks:
GNP: 16,17, or 18 (didn't change the max and 16 is the minimum)
MFG: 1 or 2 (can't tell. if he settled in place on a plains hill, which I would suspect then he as 2)
CY: 5 (working a 3 food tile (probably an unimproved food tile, although could be a floodplain)
Soldier: 4k (Mining + warrior)
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 83% (just means he's not charismatic)
LE: 85

We can't tell what his GNP is at this point, but probably 16 if researching a first tier tech or 18 if researching a tech with prerequisite. Has a 3 food tile, and I'm guessing it's not a floodplain. Also has 7 land tiles in first 9. This makes sense with equal starts (all coastal). Same health as Sirius so also 4 or 5 forests.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Team Quatronia (Provolution) logged in settled and ended turn. Guess they knew what they were doing.

Here's the demo screen after that, provided by our turn-player:

This is how we calculate these:
GNP: (18 + x + y + 1 + 1)/5 = 10 (we know two opponents haven't settled yet)
------> x + y = 50 - 20 = 30 (this number can be anywhere between 30 and 34)
------> if total is 32, then x and y = 16 (minimum)
------> if total is 33, then x and y = 16 and 17
------> if total is 34, then x and y = (18, 16) or (17, 17)
Therefore GNP can be 16, 17, or 18 for either.

Team Quatronia:
GNP: 16, 17, 18
MFG: 3, 4, 5
CY: 3, 4, 5
Sold: 4k
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 85%
LE: 85

We can actually eliminate 5 from MFG and CY because they can't be working a tile that gives them a total of 3f5h or 5f3h, unless they settled on a marble plains hill or something like that, which I'm sure the map-maker wouldn't do. So I think it is 3f4h, which would be a plains hill start (I sense a trend) and a 1f2h tile (a plains forest) or 4f3h, which would be a plains hill start and a 2f1h tile (a grassland forest). I think it's more likely to be a grassland forest, so they probably have MFG = 3 and CY = 4. They also have same health and they're not EXP so they also have 4 to 5 forests.

EDIT: that 1f2h tile could be a grassland forest hill, in which case it is equally as likely as a grassland forest.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Here's the demo screen after Team CDZ settled:

Will be back with analysis of it.

If anyone else wants to attempt to do analysis, go right ahead.

EDIT: Alright here's what I get from looking at it:

Team CDZ:
GNP: 19 (new high)
MFG: 1, 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldiers: 2k (hunting)
LA: 6k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

CDZ has a GNP of 19, and since they are not creative (free +2) they must be researching a second tier tech such as AH, Archery, or Sailing, unless they are working a 3 commerce coastal tile. They are either working a 2f3c coastal tile (lake or unimproved clam maybe) and teching a first tier tech such as Agriculture/Myst/Mining or maybe a 3f tile (unimproved food tile) and researching AH. I think the latter makes much more sense. They have 6 land tiles, so 1 less than the other civs. They are not charismatic and they have the same health as everyone else so far so again 4 to 5 forests. They probably have a plains hill cap.

I see some trends:
all coastal ~7 land tiles
all have 4 to 5 forests

It is possible people have very similar starts.

 

[SilentConfusion]

We have three more demo screenshots courtesy of Sommerswerd all taken after we settled with different tiles selected. This is very helpful and on behalf of the TOP SECRET department, Thank You.

This first one is with us working a 1f2h (grassland forest hill) tile:

And this one is with us working the 3f (sheep) tile:

And this one is with us working a 1f1h2c (grassland silver) tile:

We can use these to possibly narrow down the possibilities for what our opponents have.

So far the possible values are:
GNP: (19,18,16-18,16-18,16) with CDZ with 19 and Sirius with 18
MFG: (5,4,3,2,0) or (5,3,3,2,0)
CY: (5,5,4,2,0), (5,5,3,2,0), (5,4,4,2,0), or (5,4,3,2,0)
Soldier: (4k,4k,4k,2k,2k)
LA: (7k,7k,7k,6k,0)
pop: (1k,1k,1k,1k,0)
AR: (85%,83%,83%,83%,0)
LE: (85,85,85,85,0)

We can't narrow any of these down with this set of stuff, unless we know how tie-breakers worked. If anyone knows this or knows how to find this out, we could tell a lot more.

 

[SilentConfusion]

These are from after the last team, Team Merlot, settled:

Working 1f2h (grassland forest hill) tile:

Spoiler :

Working 3f (sheep) tile:

Spoiler :

Working 1f1h2c (grassland silver) tile:

Spoiler :

First off we can tell the following about House Merlot:
GNP: 16, 17, 18, 19
MFG: 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldier: 4k
LA: 6k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 88 (Pacal is EXP so also has 4 to 5 forests)

Everyone has 4 to 5 forests and it seems everyone started on a plains hill. Everyone is coastal (4 teams have 7 land tiles, 2 have 6 land tiles)

Summary post to follow

 

[SilentConfusion]

Our Opponents and What We Know:

Team Sirius (settled first), still hasn't ended turn:
GNP: 18
MFG: 5 (has plains forest hill in first 9 tiles)
CY: 2
Soldiers: 2k (warrior)
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85 (4 to 5 forests)
Notes: With +2 to GNP for CRE culture, he techs a start tech at 10 bpt. This leaves Wheel, Myst, Hunt, Mining. Out of those Mining is the most likely. They start with Fishing and Agriculture. If they go for Mining it would be done in 8 turns. Be aware that they might change this before ending turn. A workboat would build in 6 turns; a warrior would be done in 4 turns; a worker would be finished in 12 turns. Won't grow at current setup.

Team Mavericks (settled 2nd) also haven't ended turn yet:
GNP: 16, 17
MFG: 2
CY: 5
Soldiers: 4k (mining + warrior)
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85 (4 to 5 forests)
Notes: Could be working a floodplain, but more likely is working an unimproved food tile, which means their GNP is 16, meaning they are teching a start tech at 10 bpt. They start with Myst and Mining. They probably tech Agriculture or Hunting (next AH) to improve that tile they are working. Ag would be done in 9 turns, Hunting in 6. A warrior would be done in 8 turns; a worker would be done in 12 turns. Probably going worker first. If not worker first they would grow to size 2 on turn 5.

Team Quantronia (settled 3rd):
GNP: 16, 17, 18
MFG: 3, 4
CY: 3, 4
Soldiers: 4k (mining + warrior)
LA: 7k
pop: 1k
AR: 85%
LE: 85 (4 or 5 forests)
Notes: They work a 1f2h tile or a 2f1h tile. With the exception of unimproved elephant or forest spice, they probably don't have an extra commerce, meaning they have a GNP of 16 and tech a start tech. They start with Fishing and Mining. So could be Wheel, Ag, Hunt, or Myst. I think most likely Ag or Hunt. Ag would be done in 9 turns, Hunting in 6. A warrior would take 4 or 5 turns; a workboat would take 8 or 10 turns; a worker would take 12 turns. If not building a worker would grow in 11 or 22 turns.

Team CDZ (settled 4th)
GNP: 19
MFG: 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldiers: 2k (hunting)
LA: 6k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85 (4 or 5 forests)
Notes: With GNP of 19, they work no commerce tile and tech a tech with a prerequisite. They start with Fishing or Hunting. This means they tech Sailing, AH, or Archery. Most likely it is AH. They are probably working a 3f tile like a sheep or pig, but not riverside. A warrior would be built most likely in 8 turns; a workboat in 15 turns; a worker in 12 turns. If not building a worker would grow in probably 5 turns.

Team Merlot (settled last)
GNP: 16, 17, 18, 19
MFG: 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldier: 4k (mining + warrior)
LA: 6k
pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 88 (Pacal is EXP so also has 4 to 5 forests)
Notes: We don't know their GNP. It could be 19 and they're teching BW or a Religion or it could be 16 and they're teching a Ag or Hunting to improve their food tile. They are possibly working a 3f tile as well.

EDIT: Note that Sirius ended their turn and apparently did not change anything. My suspicions this time were unfounded it seems. Maybe all that time was scout consideration.

 

[SilentConfusion]

No change in the demographics numbers. No one has changed tiles or done anything yet, which makes sense.

 

[SilentConfusion]

We should be able to tell how much water is on the map. The map.land# which you can see by hovering over your score. For this map it is 761 (if I remember correctly). I don't think this means that there are 761 land tiles, although it could be just that simple, but either way it is dependent upon the number of land tiles at least. If we can figure out how that number is calculated we could figure out how many water tiles there were. Also if we knew the approximate map size we could get a ratio. I did some preliminary tests in WorldBuilder, but I couldn't come up with anything conclusive. If anyone knows somewhere that it has been discussed or can point me to the section of code that needs to be analyzed I would do the work of finding out.

 

[SilentConfusion]

T=2 and T=3 have no change in demographics or score.

 

[SilentConfusion]

My turn numbering was off.

I said there was no change for T=3, but there was. Here is the screenshot.

Notice that the land area numbers changed. This is because the CRE team (Team Sirius) has expanded their borders. Which incidentally means that if they are set up like us (I suspect they are) they are probably galley accessible to another island now. They also start with fishing so they can build a workboat immediately (not that they should). I bet no one has seafood in their capitol to make people choose whether to build a workboat anyway for exploration. They now have 13k, which means they picked up 6 land tiles when their capitol expanded.

they were something like this:

OOO
XOO
XOO

so maybe now they are something like this:

-OOO-
XOOOO
XXOOO
XXOOO
-XXX-

I'm going to try to pay attention to the tie-breaker rules. We had 7k LA same as 3 of our opponents (including Sirius) and we were listed 3. We are still 3rd which means that Sirius and one of Mavs and Quatronia got tie-breakers over us in LA values.

 

[SilentConfusion]

No change in demographics this turn. Everyone besides Sirius will pop borders next turn, so we'll see how much land they each have.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Please feel free to jump in and do some analysis. This especially goes for those who showed their interest earlier.

What I do each turn is look at the demographics screenshot in the played turn log and compare it to see if it is the same as the one for last turn. I don't know what it is but it is sometimes hard to read the numbers from those screenshots, so sometimes I log in and take my own.

If all the numbers are the same no analysis needs to be done and it can just be reported that there was no change.

If the numbers are different then that value has to be reanalyzed. This just means figuring out the possible opponent values. In some cases you may not be able to narrow it down very much, but other times you can narrow it down a lot.

Every 5 turns or so I will try to post a summary report with all the info about each team and how many turns I think they would have left on various builds and techs.

Just don't be afraid of "messing things up." Just jump in and give it a shot. I can do a quick double-check the first few times to make sure you've got the right idea. It'd save me time in the long run.

I guess I will do such a summary post right now.