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[SilentConfusion]

Here's a demographics summary for t=5:

GNP: (16,16,16,18,19), (16,16,17,18,19), (16,16,18,18,19), (16,17,17,18,19), (16,16,18,19,19), (16,17,18,18,19), (16,17,18,19,19), (16,18,18,18,19)
MFG: (2,2,3,3,5)
CY: (2,4,4,5,5)
Soldiers: (2k,2k,4k,4k,4k)
LA: (6k,6k,7k,7k,13k)
Pop: (1k,1k,1k,1k,1k)
AR: (83%,83%,83%,83%,85%)
LE: (85,85,85,85,88)

Individual team summaries:
* = my prediction

Team Sirius:
GNP: 18 (4cpt, 4ept, 10 bpt)
MFG: 5
CY: 2
Soldier: 2k
LA: 13k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Ag and Fishing and could be teching any of these: Wheel, Myst, Hunt, Mining. It must be Hunting or Mining. They don't need Hunt for AH as they already have Ag, so they'd only tech it first if they had lots of camp resources or if they really wanted archers. I think most likely it is Mining. Maybe they have farmables with gold/silver/gems or maybe they are just on their way to BW.

Possible Techs:
Hunting - t=6 (next turn)
*Mining - t=8 (3 turns)

Possible Builds:
*workboat - t=6 (next turn)
worker - t=12 (7 turns)

Growth: none


Team Mavericks
GNP: 16, 17 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-11bpt)
MFG: 2
CY: 5
Soldier: 4k
LA: 7k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Myst and Mining. They are teching one of the following: Fishing, Agriculture, Wheel, or Hunting. All of them besides Wheel I consider possible. They didn't grow on t=5 so they must be building a worker.

Possible Techs:
Fishing - t=6 (next turn)
Hunting - t=6 (next turn)
*Agriculture - t=9 (4 turns)

Possible Builds:
*worker - t=12 (7 turns)

Growth: none


Team Quatronia

GNP: 16, 17, 18 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-12bpt)
MFG: 3
CY: 4
Soldier: 4k
LA: 7k
Pop: 1k
AR: 85%
LE: 85

They start with Fishing and mining and are researching one of the following: Wheel, Ag, Hunt, or Myst. I don't think they would tech Wheel or Myst first. If it is Hunting then the GNP can't be 18. Can't be building a warrior first.

Possible Techs:
*Ag - t=8 or t=9 (3 or 4 turns)
Hunt - t=6 (next turn)

Possible builds:
*worker - t=12 (7 turns)
workboat - t=8 or t=10 (3 or 5 turns)

Growth: t=11 or t=22 if not building worker


Team CDZ

GNP: 19 (2cpt, 4ept, 13bpt)
MFG: 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldier: 2k
LA: 6k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Fishing and Hunting they are teching Sailing, Archery, or AH or Wheel, Ag, Myst, or Mining working a FIN water tile. I think it is very likely to be AH. If building a warrior then MFG = 2 and CY = 5

Possible techs:
Sailing - t=12 (7 turns)
*AH - t=12 (7 turns)
Archery - t=7 (2 turns)
Wheel - t=7 (2 turns)
Myst - t=6 (next turn)
Mining - t=6 (next turn)
Ag - t=7 (2 turns)

Possible builds:
workboat - t=10 or t=15 (5 or 10 turns)
warrior - t=8 (3 turns)
*worker - t=12 (7 turns)

Growth: t=11 if not building a worker


Team Merlot

GNP: 16, 17, 18, 19 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-13bpt)
MFG: 2, 3
CY: 4, 5
Soldier: 4k
LA: 6k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 88

They start with Myst and Mining. They could be teching Fishing, Wheel, Ag, or Hunt with 10-12bpt, or they may be teching Poly, Med, or BW with 13bpt. I doubt they start with Wheel, but all the others are possible. If teching Fish or Hunt GNP = 16, 17. Can't be building warrior as it would either be done or they would have grown by t=5.

Possible techs:
Fishing - t=6 (next turn)
Ag - t=8 or t=9 (3 or 4 turns)
Hunt - t=6 (next turn)
*?Poly - t=12 (7 turns)
Med - t=10 (5 turns)
BW - t=14 (9 turns)

Possible builds:
*worker - t=12 (7 turns)

Growth: none

 

[remake20]

Sorry I forgot to get a demo screen, I can do it, but it might help if you do that I think.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Here's a new screenshot from t=5 and there has been a change in tile assignment and LA. I am thinking that someone got access to a better tile to work with their border pop.

Here's the new demoscreen:

It can be compared to the one for t=4 in the turn report thread.

I actually narrowed down the possible tiles worked:
Team: CY/MFG
Sirius: 2/5
Mavs: 5/2
Quat: 4/3
CDZ: 4/3 or 5/2
Merl: 4/3 or 5/2

I'll update the last summary I just posted.

But then there was a tile switch. It wasn't Sirius or Mavs. It must have been Q, CDZ, or Merl. They switched to a tile with less food and more hammers. This means that someone probably got a forest plains hill in their second ring. It could be CDZ or Quat trying to build a workboat faster. If this is true then they probably have 15/30 hammers into it, and will therefore now finish it in 3 turns on t=8. It could have been someone building a warrior first, but that would mean they worked a 3f tile while building the warrior only putting 10/15 into it. This doesn't make so much sense to me. The other possibility, and I think this is quite likely, is that it is Team Merlot who got a forest plains hill and switched to it so their EXP bonus would kick in for the worker they are building. But only one person has 2 CY and that is Mavs (unless two people switched).

Also the land numbers came in for the second ring.

The possible values are (11k,13k,13k,15k,15k) or (11k,13k,14k,14k,15k)

Sirius has 13 land tiles.
Someone has only 11 land tiles.

 

[SilentConfusion]

t=6

Score increase:
CDZ: 33 -> 39

Their score was (land + pop + tech + wonder)
0 + FLOOR(1*6.297) + FLOOR(2*5.99) + FLOOR(1*16.13) = 6 + 11 + 16 = 33

No population increase so it had to be a tech researched.

This had to be a starting tech, and that means they had to be working a 3c water tile. This means they had MFG = 2 (plain hill) and CY = 4 (They could have been working a 1f3c tile, but that seems a little unlikely to me). The only two techs that would finish this turn with 13bpt are Myst and Mining. There was an increase in soldier points this turn and by my calculations no one could have built a warrior, so they must have teched Mining. They probably went worker first to use that Mining since they wanted it in soon. By my calculations no one could have finished a warrior this turn.

Here's the demo-screen:

Notice that 2k soldier points is due to CDZ researching Mining.

Notice also that the high CY value went to 7. No one gained a population, so that has to be an improved tile. I was predicting Sirius to be going for a workboat which was due this turn. Before I took the screenshot several people from Sirius were logged in. They must have had a +5f resource (fish) only 1 tile away from their capitol so it must be coast therefore it is a 5f3c tile, this would up their GNP to 21. So they now have a MFG = 2 and a CY = 7 and they start on a new build this turn (I'd guess a worker). It should take them 7 turns (t=13) to finish their worker. They should finish Mining in 2 turns (t=8).

I would guess that the CYs = (3,4,5,5,7) with 7 being Sirius with their fish and Mavs being 5 with their unimproved food tile. The 4 is CDZ because they were working a coastal seafood (2f3c) or a lake. that would make it Q and Merlot with 3 and 5. whichever has the 3 was the one that switched tiles on t=5.

 

[SilentConfusion]

Here's a demographics summary for t=6:

Individual team summaries:
* = my prediction

Team Sirius:
GNP: 21 (4cpt, 4ept, 13 bpt)
MFG: 2
CY: 7
Soldier: 2k
LA: 13k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Ag and Fishing and are teching Mining. The finished a workboat and improved a fish tile with it on t=6. Now they can build another workboat, a warrior, or a worker. I am almost certain that it is a worker now. It should be done in 7 turns.

Possible Techs:
*Mining - t=8 (2 turns)

Possible Builds:
worker - t=13 (7 turns)

Growth: none


Team Mavericks
GNP: 16, 17 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-11bpt)
MFG: 2
CY: 5
Soldier: 4k
LA: 7k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Myst and Mining. They are teching one of the following: Agriculture or Wheel. I don't consider Wheel as a possible first tech. They didn't grow on t=5 so they must be building a worker.

Possible Techs:
*Agriculture - t=9 (3 turns)

Possible Builds:
*worker - t=12 (6 turns)

Growth: none


Team Quatronia

GNP: 16, 17, 18 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-12bpt)
MFG: 3, 4
CY: 3, 4
Soldier: 4k
LA: 7k
Pop: 1k
AR: 85%
LE: 85

They start with Fishing and mining and are researching one of the following: Wheel, Ag, Hunt, or Myst. I don't think they would tech Wheel or Myst first. Can't be building a warrior first.

Possible Techs:
*Ag - t=8 or t=9 (2 or 3 turns)


Possible builds:
*worker - t=12 (6 turns)
workboat - t=10 (4 turns)

Growth: t=11 or t=22 if not building worker


Team CDZ

GNP: 19 (2cpt, 4ept, 13bpt)
MFG: 2
CY: 4
Soldier: 2k
LA: 6k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 85

They start with Fishing and Hunting and the teched Mining on t=6 working a 3c tile.

Possible techs:
<wait and see>

Possible builds:
workboat - t=15 (9 turns)
warrior - t=8 (2 turns)
*worker - t=12 (6 turns)

Growth: t=11 if not building a worker


Team Merlot

GNP: 16, 17, 18, 19 (2cpt, 4ept, 10-13bpt)
MFG: 2, 3*
CY: 4*, 5
Soldier: 4k
LA: 6k
Pop: 1k
AR: 83%
LE: 88

They start with Myst and Mining. They could be teching Wheel or Ag with 10-12bpt, or they may be teching Poly, Med, or BW with 13bpt. I doubt they start with Wheel, but all the others are possible.

Possible techs:
Ag - t=8 or t=9 (2 or 3 turns)
*?Poly - t=12 (6 turns)
Med - t=10 (4 turns)
BW - t=14 (8 turns)

Possible builds:
*worker - t=12 (6 turns)

Growth: none

 

[SilentConfusion]

I'm amazed that some people consider a maximum of 2 days between turns "glacial". To me it's quite appropriate for the level of discussion we're having on our team. Perhaps other teams aren't discussing/spamming opinions enough.

By the way, FYI, there is a reason why we haven't ended our turn yet. We haven't accidentally forgotten to play. This one turn might take us a bit more time to reach a decision, but after this we should be able to play fairly quickly for the next few dozen turns.

Speak for yourself. Sirius has easily had a couple of hundred posts of discussion just in the past day or two, mostly discussing and analysing our specific move this turn from every conceivable angle.

Two posts that say that Sirius is making some kind of decision. As to what it is... I'm open to opinions.

My guess would be it is whether to build another workboat before a worker. They just finished a workboat which improved a coastal fish tile. Now they are asking themselves whether to build another workboat or a worker. Maybe they have multiple fish or maybe they're considering an exploring workboat.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Saturn suffered greatly in the last game for failing to build a workboat early on. I doubt LP would repeat that mistake.

 

[damnrunner]

Saturn suffered greatly in the last game for failing to build a workboat early on. I doubt LP would repeat that mistake.

They also suffered greatly from generalized sucking. Didn't they lose a few cities to Barbarians?

 

[SilentConfusion]

Saturn suffered greatly in the last game for failing to build a workboat early on. I doubt LP would repeat that mistake.

I think they are very likely to get an exploring WB out fast, because I have heard LP so many times say that he should have done that in the last game.

@damnrunner: Yes they also had a lot of barb troubles, although if their island is the same size as ours they won't have that much troubles barb spawnbusting this time.

 

[damnrunner]

My point was that they did poorly not due to lack of an early WB but do to overall bad play. Not building a WB was a small part of this - but by no means the main factor.

 

[remake20]

I try to look at your demo graph analysis, but sometimes I don't get to read it, so if I am the current turn player and there is something important that I might need to change plans or do something else send me a PM just in case I don't get a chance to read it.

 

[SilentConfusion]

I try to look at your demo graph analysis, but sometimes I don't get to read it, so if I am the current turn player and there is something important that I might need to change plans or do something else send me a PM just in case I don't get a chance to read it.

I am shocked and completely appalled that not everyone is reading this mess of numbers and speculation. Hopefully anything that is important enough to change something will be brought up and commented on by AMAZONs and perhaps polled. Our turnplayers will hopefully at least read that even if they do not read the nitty gritty details of this thread.

It would be a big help if the current turn player could get a screenshot of the demo-screen when they log in to take the turn. It really doesn't take that much more time to do it and it saves me from having to log in. I usually am able to, but perhaps not always. It's always better to take a screenshot, even if you think someone else might have already got one.

Also. If anyone wants to delve into this kind of work. I could use some help analyzing and keeping all the information organized. Feel free to offer your valuable time. I can go through everything with you and make sure it is easy to learn. I guarantee that every AMAZON could do what I do with only minimal instruction. (Not that they want to. )

 

[remake20]

I read them most of the time, but I don't always get to. Sure I can get a picture for you.

 

[wideyedwanderer]

SC, I'm willing to help out if you tell me what to do. I've read everything you posted, including the "How it works," stuff, but it's kinda intimidating to jump into. I'll go back and reread it.

I think we definitely have to research fishing next. We can't risk falling behind in exploration.

 

[SilentConfusion]

SC, I'm willing to help out if you tell me what to do. I've read everything you posted, including the "How it works," stuff, but it's kinda intimidating to jump into. I'll go back and reread it.

I think we definitely have to research fishing next. We can't risk falling behind in exploration.

It is a lot and it can feel a bit intimidating, but I assure you it is not too hard for you.

Tomorrow I will host a tutorial in this thread about how to get into doing analysis yourself. It will be a big help if others are able to help. I will also go over the new score increases (which were all gained techs) and see if we can't figure out the techs that our opponents just got.

I'm pretty tired now, so I'll get some sleep and I have a presentation at work tomorrow, but tomorrow afternoon I will sit down for the weekend and hammer out some analysis and some tutorials.

 

[SilentConfusion]

This will be a tutorial aimed at helping wideyedwanderer and other interested in helping the (TOP SECRET) department.

The Steps:
1. Obtain at least one screenshot each turn. Hopefully the turnplayer will be kind enough to get one for us. If not someone else has to log on and get one.
2. Compare the screenshot to the one from the previous turn. If there is no change, then there is no new work to be done.
3. If there is a change it should be analyzed and we try to figure out what could have caused the change and the possible opponent values.

And that is it. Step 3 is the only somewhat complicated step, but it is not really that bad.

The main equation that is useful to us is:
(Highest.Opp.Value + X + Y + Z + Lowest.Opp.Value)/5 = Average.Opp.Value

There are only at most 3 unknown values. Sometimes we can figure out what these are, but sometimes we only have possible values.

An example calculation:
On t=4, the LA values were:
Highest.Opp.Value = 13000
Lowest.Opp.Value = 6000
Average.Opp.Value = 7800

On the next turn (t=5) the LA values were:
Highest.Opp.Value = 15000
Lowest.Opp.Value = 11000
Average.Opp.Value = 13400

The new values gives us this equation:
(15k + X + Y + Z + 11k)/5 = 13.4k

Simplification yields:
X + Y + Z = 67k - 26k = 41k

This means the total of the three unknown values is 41k.

Let us try to find the possible value combinations.

Assume that X = 15k (the max possible)
-Y + Z = 41k - 15k = 26k
-Assume that Y = 15k (the max possible)
-Then Z = 26k - 15k = 11k
-So (15k,15k,11k) is a possible set of values of the unknown values.

Assume that X = 15k and Y = 14k
-Then Z = 41k - 15k - 14k = 12k
-So (15k,14k,12k) is another possible set of values of the unknown values.

We can continue in this way (lowering Y and figuring out Z) and find all possible combinations of values that contain a value of 15k. Then you can assume X = 14k and do the same thing. You can continue all the way to X = 11k and find all possible combination of values that would give that average.

Sometimes the number of possible value combinations is a lot. We can do a number of things to limit this. We can pay attention to previous high and low values to try to get exact values for some of the unknown values. In this example we know that one of the "unknown values" (X, Y, or Z) is 13k (Team Sirius popped borders early and had the high score of 13k until turn 5). In this case we can say that X = 13k and then Y + Z = 41k - 13k = 28k. This cuts the possible values by a lot.

Another thing we can do is use the rank value to eliminate some possibilities. In this example on t=5 our LA was 14k and we are ranked 4th. This tells us that there are at least three teams that have 14k or 15k. (If we could figure out how tie-breakers are calculated we could eliminate even more value combinations.) We know the Highest.Opp.Value is 15k, but now we know that at least 2 of the 3 unknown values are either 15k or 14k. If we combine this with the fact that we know Sirius has 13k, we can severely limit the possible values.

By switching tile yields we can change our own value and therefore our rank. It is sometimes true that by looking at demoscreens with different tile configurations and watching how the rank changes, it is possible to eliminate more possibilities.

That is it. Then I post the possible values left after eliminating everything possible and make my best guesses as to why the changes happened. In the case of the t=5 LA change it is clear (border pops), but in some cases it might not be immediately obvious why the change happened.

The score changes should be noted for each turn as well. Noting that there was a score increase, you can check to see if there was also a change in Pop values, which would indicate city growth or an increase in Soldier points, which may mean that a military tech was researched (although it could mean other things).

Hopefully that was pretty well spelled out.

Demoscreens so far:

T=0

Spoiler :

T=1

Spoiler :

T=2

Spoiler :

T=3

Spoiler :

T=4

Spoiler :

T=5

Spoiler :

T=6

Spoiler :

T=7

Spoiler :

T=8

Spoiler :

T=9

Spoiler :

T=10

Spoiler :

Now for some analysis of the score increases. We know they are all from techs and not from growth because the Highest.Opp.Value for Pop is 1k. Now lets see if we can figure out which ones.

CDZ score 33 -> 39 on t=6
Sirius score 33 -> 39 on t=8
Mavs score 33 -> 39 on t=9
Merlot score 33 -> 39 on t=9
Quat score 33 -> 39 on t=9

I already showed that CDZ teched Mining on t=6 working a 1f3c or 2f3c water tile.

Looking at my summary I see that the only possible tech that Sirius could have completed on t=8 is Mining.

I already had the Mavs pegged for Ag finishing on t=9, so this is almost certainly what they teched.

I had Quat pegged for teching Ag as well and that it would be done on t=8 (if their GNP was 18) or t=9 (if their GNP was 16 or 17). I guess we can figure that they had a GNP of 16 or 17 (meaning working at a 0c or 1c tile) and that they just teched Ag.

Merlot also must have teched Ag. This means they didn't have a GNP of 18 or 19, so it was 16 or 17.

Summary of techs so far researched:

CDZ teched Mining on turn 6 having worked a water tile to get there extra fast.

Sirius teched Mining on turn 8 working a 0c tile.

Merlot, Quat, and Mavs all teched Ag first and finished on turn 9.

EDIT: The next step is to look at the GNP changes on the turns after those techs were gained and see if we can't tell if what tech they must have switched to and what GNP (and therefore what bpt) they must have.

 

[damnrunner]

Very well done!

 

[Sommerswerd]

I wonder... is it possible that one of the teams that teched agriculture has a monopoly on pigs rather than rice? I remember in the last game, alot of hooey was made about rice and sheep being inferior starting resources compared to pigs and corn/wheat.

You need agriculture or hunting for AH so that could explain why they teched Agriculture since you also need Agriculture (or Fishing) for Pottery.

 

[SilentConfusion]

I wonder... is it possible that one of the teams that teched agriculture has a monopoly on pigs rather than rice? I remember in the last game, alot of hooey was made about rice and sheep being inferior starting resources compared to pigs and corn/wheat.

You need agriculture or hunting for AH so that could explain why they teched Agriculture since you also need Agriculture (or Fishing) for Pottery.

Only us and CDZ started with Hunting and could tech AH right away. So if other teams had some animals, and I am sure some of them do, then they will need to tech AH through either Ag or Hunt. Hunting is 3 turns sooner, which means AH is three turns sooner. So if they do have pigs or some other pastureable they didn't take the fast route to AH. Pottery does require Fishing or Ag. So, you are perfectly right in saying that it is possible that they are going Ag>AH>Pott. If they wanted an early fishing boat, they might as well go through fishing and hunting rather than Ag, unless they had farmables since hunting and fishing together are 118 beakers (11 turns at base 10 bpt), while Ag and fishing together are 148 beakers (15 turns at base 10 bpt). If they were neglecting fishing early, then Ag could be for AH.

Rice is 1 less food so if equal amounts of rice were given it would be less food, but if there were more rice tiles (like 3 in BFC instead of 2 wheat/corn) that might be an even trade. It is 2 more food, but requires an extra population to work. This may still be weaker, but it I think it is more even and possible. Our sheep are 5f, Sirius' fish is 5f. It could be that we all have 5f tiles (is plains pig 5f?).

SUMMARY: Yes possible someone without farmables is going Ag>AH, although this would probably mean they aren't going for fishing early.

 

[Sommerswerd]

SUMMARY: Yes possible someone without farmables is going Ag>AH, although this would probably mean they aren't going for fishing early.

That is good news... that in conjunction with all your other analysis means we are still in good shape to possibly be the first team to get a scout workboat out.

About pig versus sheep... The issue is that a patured pig gets +3 regardless of tile, whereas a pastured sheep gets +2 regardless of tile. That means that in terms of pure pig is superior to sheep... but I agree that if you have a whole lot of sheep it matters less.