Two MGLs in a row: 255-1 odds

[DementedAvenger]

SirPleb's point is very well taken.

After every MGL, you have a 1/16 chance that the next elite win will produce another great leader.

That means there is only a 93.75% chance that you won't have back-to-back leaders.

If I remember my college stats class rightly, since .9375^11 = .4917, you can start feeling upset about not getting back-to-back MGLs after only ELEVEN (MGL producing) elite wins!!

Yep, we're both right here . I was just talking about elite wins in general, while you were talking about elite wins immediately following a leader creation. I used the exact same formula you did to come up with 177:

(255/256) ^ 177 = 0.5, just as (15/16) ^ 11 = 0.5


Now for some random off-topic calculations:

(1/16)^x = (1-10^[log (0.5) / elite wins])

Where x is the number of leaders you can expect to get (in a row) 50% of the time (assuming we haven't built the heroic epic).

Assume 10,000 people have played civ over the last year.
Assume each person played an average 250 hours that year.
Assume each person achieved 5 elite wins per hours.
Therefore, overall, we have 12,500,000 elite wins in the last year.

Solving for x, we get about 6.

Therefore, there is a 50% chance that somebody got 6 leaders in a row last year.

 

[WilliamOfOrange]

I have had several games where I get two MGLs in a row, with or without HE and with or without being Militaristic. My best game, GOTM35 I believe, I at one point I got two in the same turn on consequtive attacks and about 4 or 5 in a matter of 5-7 turns. It wasn't like I had all my units Elite either. I tend to pick and chose when my Elites fight. I tend to lose a lot, but the dice does roll my way eventually. I seem to have a nack for telepathically or telekinetically guiding a RNG towards my will. It's the same thing with my CD player on random, I hit play and I can sometimes control the first few songs in the order I want. For the MGLs I just think about it and it surprises me every time. Does anyone else have this occur, or has anyone heard of this phenomenon?

 

[Bagatur]

No, but I have observetions how MGLs are triggered, by reloading and replaying same fights in different ways. I like to save my elites also,so I very selectable attack with elites. The trigger is not in attacking unit, but in attacked. Where u usually lose Cavarly against spearmen, there is very high chance of getting MGL. Also, if lets say u have 5 fights in this turns. Very likely if u lose one unit, in whatever consequence u replay the fight u will always lose one unit. Well, it varies between unit types and their strenght, but if u take same kind of units attacking same kind of targets its always same. Even order of losing fight is same. This leads me to think, RNG number generated is only one, not one for each fight. Also, me and my cousin noticed, MGL production seems to depends on strenght of units taking part in fight. This could be illusive, we both share feeling, when u kill strong unit with weaker or similar strenght, it more often produces MGL

 

[WilliamOfOrange]

Certainly, but I find that I get a higher chance of getting a MGL with attacking a pikeman with a kinght than I do with Calvary on Spearman

 

[Mr. Do]

Uhh, Bagatur, have you not heard of the concept of the random seed number generated, and how it works if it is preserved?

 

[Bagatur]

Willian, this is exactly what I found.

Mr. Do, sure I did heard, I'm programmer also and even know how to use them, but there could be more than one random number and they all can be preserved E.g - one for deposing, one for fight, one barbarian appearing, etc, got the point I guess. I said there is one RNG for fights, dunno for other events, but seems its one at all, bcs random events are connected with fights also. If u change something unrelated to fight, it could affect fights. This is simplier way - one random number, but several random numbers can add more unprediction to save/load masters (I have few friends doing it) . "Preserve random seed" actually takes from u opportunity of playing game by save/load as u like, but from other side adds knowledge of how the things will happen.

 

[michael4000]

Now for some random off-topic calculations:

(1/16)^x = (1-10^[log (0.5) / elite wins])

Where x is the number of leaders you can expect to get (in a row) 50% of the time (assuming we haven't built the heroic epic).

Assume 10,000 people have played civ over the last year.
Assume each person played an average 250 hours that year.
Assume each person achieved 5 elite wins per hours.
Therefore, overall, we have 12,500,000 elite wins in the last year.

Solving for x, we get about 6.

Therefore, there is a 50% chance that somebody got 6 leaders in a row last year.

NICE!! I hope whoever got the six-in-a-row used them wisely...

 

[Pook]

Thanx Crimso and Punkbass2000 for correcting my understanding. It's only the Heroic Epic that changes the chances of getting a leader, not being militaristic.

Michael 4000, that means you beat 255-1 odds as well.

On further reflection, if a civ being militaristic gave it an increased chance of getting a leader, that could truly be unbalancing. Much better off without it.

 

[widdowmaker]

I found a bug or somthing, listen to this. I was playing russia and JUST hit the idustiral era and got medicine, i beeline for electricity (or whatever tech gives the wonder that gives u 2 free techs) get the wonderr, as soon as the wonder is donbe i get a SGL off of the next tech, and another SGL off of the 2nd tech (hoover tech) rush hoovers in my capital and i got hydros next turn while the rest of the world is just getting steam power.

Oh, and i also finished industrilaztion the same turn i finished the wonder that gives 2 free techs, got a SGL off of THAT too.


Of course it was on cheiftan and other than acient age i researched every tech on my own, so the chances were pretty high.

 

[punkbass2000]

Wow, that's pretty impressive and unlikely. I'm not sure what bug you're talking about. Perhaps having more than one SGL at a time? This is not a bug, it is only MGLs that prevent further leaders.

 

[widdowmaker]

oh, i thoght it was SGL's too.

 

[Halcyon]

Every so often someone researches Philosophy first and gets two Scientific Leaders. There's something to be said for being able to rush the Pyramids and the Great Library sixty turns into the game.

I on the other hand rarely get a SGL at all in a game. The last one I had was for researching Superconductor - with eight SS parts built and prebuilds for the last two meaning that they'd take only one more turn to complete. Only time I've ever started a Scientific Golden Age.

 

[DragonRunner]

There's a SOTD of someone getting 2 SGLs in one turn thanks to philo.

 

[Julius Caesar I]

I have the Heroic Epic, and I got two MGL's in the span of about 15 turns. It was actually the first MGL that I used to rush the Battle Field Medicine, and I am waiting now to research a Wonder Tech to use the other one. I dont need anymore armies right now, I have two very good ones in the battlefield. And if I want another one I can have Moscow spit out an army in 7 turns.