New patch, new game. I think the lake tobacco is a no-brainer; you are within 2 of the other tobaccos, and can put a second city next to the marble later. You also get a 2 gpt bonus at the start, and have two forests to work. The tobacco plantation +3 gold isn't that great. And as Askia, you don't lose a turn.
On the other hand, the lake marble city might be awful, by settling in place you have three lux in the second ring. Up the lake will be a good 2nd city (probably). On the other hand, you lose the forest, and the first ring is pretty awful.
What do you all think?