Originally posted by Switch625
To me, they are not two separate opinions. He did not say the Soviet Union would be defeated, he said they would be badly disrupted. If Moscow had fallen, there would have been chaos, confusion, etc., but they still would have continued fighting. There was simply too much of the Soviet Union for Germany to be able to conquer enough of it to force a Soviet surrender.
If the Germans had captured Leningrad as well as Moscow, due to the above-mentioned chaos, then the morale of the Russian people would have sunk to an all-time low. First, their belief in the invincible Stalin and his exhortations that "There is no doubt that Germany cannot stand this strain much longer. In a few months, perhaps in half a year, maybe a year, Hitlerite Germany must burst under the weight of her own crimes..." would have been crushed when he was captured at Moscow along with high-ranking officials.
I quote from Alexander Werth's
Russia at War, "There was, in fact, a gap of nearly a year- roughly from August 1941 to August 1942 when the Red Army was extremely short of equipment, and this shortage
was very nearly disastrous between October 1941 and the following spring..." (Emphasis added)
The 'evacuation of industry' was in full swing during the Battle of Moscow, but many industries weren't up to 100% until about June of '42-right during the disasters of Kharkov, Kerch, and Sevastopol.
With the capture of Leningrad, the storied 'birthplace of the Revolution', the Russian government would be almost forced to sign an armistice with the Germans. The Russian Army, low on equipment, would face mass desertions and defections and the political comissar would probably have been reenstated as equal to the commanding officer-if the Russians had kept fighting.