Withdraw Chances

[Wyrmhero]

How are withdrawal chances calculated? It says 20% chance to withdraw on the promotion, but the chance of withdrawal in a battle is not the same number. And, is the chance of withdrawing cumulative with winning the battle? (so, with 50% chance to win, and 20% chance to withdraw, that's 70% to survive) or is it seperate? (so with 50% chance to win, and then 20% to withdraw if it looses, the unit has 60% chance to survive) Would apreciate any help to clarify this.

Wyrmhero

 

[xalien]

When playing BTS I've noticed that withdrawal chances go down as combat odds decrease. I think that winning chances serves as a modifier to withdrawal chance. So with 50% chance to win withdrawal chance from 20% goes down to 10%, if winning is 10% then withdrawal just 2% ... I think.

 

[Pyr0mancer]

Well with the exception of artillery/siege units, you only withdraw from losing battles. Therefore, the withdrawal chance for normal units is (100-%win)(%withdraw). In other words, if you have a 50% chance of winning the battle, and a 20% withdraw rate, you'll withdraw from 20% of the LOSING battles, or 20% of 50% = 10%. If you have a 10% chance of winning, you'll withdraw from 20% of 90% = 18%.

Artillery/siege units, that have a maximum on the damage they can do, will withdraw (100%) when they reach that maximum, or if they lose the battle (whatever the withdrawal chance is).

Go by what shows up with you mouseover with rightclick. Chances of winning + chances of withdrawing = chances of survival.

edit: Although, I think First Strikes negate withdrawal, or in other words if you are killed by the first strikes of an enemy then you don't get a shot at withdrawing. I think this because I've managed to kill Loki outside of a city using my HN Giant Spiders, which have 1 first strike. Granted, it took something like 50 turns with 4 spiders...

 

[xienwolf]

Withdrawal chance is only calculated if they opponent wins the damage check to deal you a death blow (hence any unit who withdraws is always VERY low on life).

Thus it is somewhat an additive function. It is a 50% chance to win, and then if you do not win, a 20% chance to withdraw. Thus the 20% check is only made 50% of the time, and thus your true chances of survival are about 60% if you check the overall (reasonably certain I did that right...).

Not sure about why the displayed chances are different than what the promotion claimed you should get. If it really does scale with damage though that would meant that Loki shouldn't be 100% chance to withdraw immediately following a prior withdraw (because he is hurt and it would lower his 100% chance). Thus I am hesitant to believe that such is the case.

 

[Wyrmhero]

Thanks for the quick response! Is there any way to get a unit with around 100% withdrawal rate, except for Loki (when he works as he should)?

 

[rusty217]

Thanks for the quick response! Is there any way to get a unit with around 100% withdrawal rate, except for Loki (when he works as he should)?

Yes,

With hippus stables, horse archer and flanking 1,2 and 3, that is 95%

if you have unrestricted leaders and use a leader with defender trait then that is 105% withdrawal chance...

Oh, and the Hippus hero with flanking 1,2 and 3 should be 100%...

 

[Wyrmhero]

Thanks rusty217. Now I have to try the Hippus just for that...

 

[Zechnophobe]

In Vanilla, you can't get more than 80% withdraw, so I'm thinking it's the same here, which is why loki doesn't just SAY 100% withdraw.

Withdraw % is exactly that percentage of your chance to LOSE a combat. Therefore if you have a roughly 0% chance to win, than you'll have about the maximum chance of withdrawing.

Some examples:

10% Withdraw
90% Win (Chance to lose 10%)

Withdraw chance will be 1% (10% chance of losing, 10% of 10% is 1%)
91% chance your unit will come back alive.

50% Withdraw
40% Win (Chance to lose 60%)

Withdraw chance will be 30% (50% of 60% is 30%)
70% chance your unit will come back alive.

Hope that includes everything. Note that in FFh, units also seem to withdraw on DEFENSE, and sometimes when they do it on OFFENSE they'll actually move to different tiles. This is unique to the mod. Units defending a city do not retreat (Ergo why loki dies if he's in a city).

 

[Grey Fox]

And Zechnophobe's post is correct, except the global define MAX_WITHDRAWAL_PROBABILITY makes it capped out at 90%. (Unchanged from vanilla)