Yatsuan Lacrosse League (YLL)

[ice2k4]

Tonights game, delayed twice due to rain, finally got underway at about 8:00 p.m. EDT. In a huge upset against the Golden D. middie line, the RadioActive Monkeys shut out Golden D. in a 4-0 match.

RadioActive Monkeys have gained 2 stat points to be distributed anywhere (please post where.)

Spoiler :

Faceoff: Monkeys take possession of the carabba.
Golden D. saves the shot! (1st shot)

Monkeys retake possession after the save.
Monkeys score! Monkeys 1-0 (2nd shot)

Faceoff: Monkeys take possession.
Monkeys score! Monkeys 2-0 (3rd shot)

Faceoff: Golden D. takes possession.
Monkeys save the shot! (4th shot)

Monkeys retake possession.
Golden D. saves the shot! (5th shot)

Monkeys retake possession after the shot.
Monkeys score! Monkeys 3-0 (6th shot)

Faceoff: Monkeys take possession.
Golden D. saves the shot! (7th shot)

Monkeys retake possession after the shot.
Golden D. saves the shot! (8th shot)

Monkeys retake possession after the shot.
Monkeys score! Monkeys 4-0 (9th shot)

Faceoff: Monkeys take possession.
Golden D. saves the shot! (10th shot)

Monkeys win 4-0!

Also, I encourage those who can listen to the matches live to come. The game is much more fun and even I find it nailbiting, even though I'm the one conducting them. Although it is my fault today with the times and everything, just letting everyone know how much fun they can be.

Updating standings now. Also the next matches will most likely be played on the weekend, unless I found out I don't have practice one day this week.

 

[grant2004]

Wow congratulations to the radioactive monkeys whatever you're irradiated with can I have some?

 

[730195]

Well, there is an optimum distribution of stats, if that's what you are referring to. Wonder if those who selected that distribution were smart or lucky.

Correction, no one selected an optimum distribution.

 

[Joe Harker]

what is the optium distaburation then?

 

[730195]

what is the optium distaburation then?

I'll wait a bit in case anyone objects.

 

[ordinaryguy]

I'll wait a bit in case anyone objects.

I object because the season is still not over and other people can still join in. By revealing the secret, it's no longer fun.

Edit: Well, you could always pm the answer to Joe Harker if he really wants to know but not publicly, thank you

 

[730195]

I object because the season is still not over and other people can still join in. By revealing the secret, it's no longer fun.

Edit: Well, you could always pm the answer to Joe Harker if he really wants to know but not publicly, thank you

I'll wait until the game ends or all playing are agreeable. It's not my intention to give one player extra info the others don't have (although the analysis is not partucularly hard and others may have already done it).

 

[dutchfire]

I wouldn't mind seeing the optimal distribution, but I *think* it depends on your opponents distribution.

 

[730195]

... the optimal distribution, but I *think* it depends on your opponents distribution.

A logical thought, but it doesn't seem to be true.

 

[Joe Harker]

I am just joking, dosen't matter anyway because we can add two stats points when we win so it changes over time and also the differences are proberly very small and therefore luck has more to do with it. Also we are not allowed to change our stats disturbation i think (would be unfair to)

 

[730195]

I am just joking, dosen't matter anyway because we can change stats when we win so it changes over time

When you win and add stat points, you can add them in a way that makes your team closer to the optimum or you can move farther away. Starting optimum and moving in that direction every time you add points seems better than starting random and moving random when you add points.

also the differences are proberly very small and therefore luck has more to do with it.

If we take the best (stat-wise) team of a few days ago and compare it against an optimum team, I would expect the optimum team to win 55% of the time while the other team would win 29% of the time. "Small" may be in the eye of the beholder.

 

[Joe Harker]

Ok fairly big difference in proberlity (sorry about spelling) but still might win 29% of the time, we only play two matches against each other, fairly high chance of winning at least one

 

[ice2k4]

I am just joking, dosen't matter anyway because we can add two stats points when we win so it changes over time and also the differences are proberly very small and therefore luck has more to do with it. Also we are not allowed to change our stats distribution i think (would be unfair to)

No changing the stat distribution is not allowed, only adding the stat points is.

Also, there really is no optimal distribution of stats because this game depends a lot on luck, and also the opposing team's stats.

 

[DaveShack]

I'll wait until the game ends or all playing are agreeable. It's not my intention to give one player extra info the others don't have (although the analysis is not partucularly hard and others may have already done it).

I only mentioned the "algorithm" thing to see what kind of answers might pop up, not to cause anyone harm. It's a lot more fun to play not having the actual statistics, so I suggest none of us publishes the analysis.

I took the programmatic route, creating a list of virtual teams with many possible combinations of stats, and then ran 10,000 games against each pairing of virtual teams. The results happen to match the win distribution that I inferred from the rules, without running the experiment.

It is very important to note that any team can win any match, due to chance.

 

[730195]

Also, there really is no optimal distribution of stats because this game depends a lot on luck, and also the opposing team's stats.

Unfortunately the last bit does seem to happen. Some stat distributions are better than all others. You can still lose on the roll of the dice, but if you analyze it, there is no reason I can think of to go sub-optimal.

 

[730195]

I took the programmatic route, creating a list of virtual teams with many possible combinations of stats, and then ran 10,000 games against each pairing of virtual teams. The results happen to match the win distribution that I inferred from the rules, without running the experiment.

I took that route initially, but was happier in simply extending the probabilities out through the 10 allowed shots and recording who won and what the probability of that path was.

 

[GeorgeOP]

No changing the stat distribution is not allowed, only adding the stat points is.

We shouldn't allow stat changes based on winning imho. If a team wins a couple games based on luck, they now have 4 more points than opponents. Then they have more of a chance to win and can steamroll their way to a championship. Besides, shouldn't I get more points for a blow out win? (and who said it was an upset?)

 

[Joe Harker]

in your table ice2k you have got DA BEST scoring only 1 goal when they have scored 2

 

[GeorgeOP]

If we're going to allow stat adding, I would like to add two points to my midfield.

 

[grant2004]

well your victory wasn't a huge upset George, the upset was that my midfield only managed to take the ball once, I'm not great with probabilities, I've forgotten quite a bit since I took statistics, but I think the chance of that happening was only a tenth of a percent, given our midfield stats.