2019 NFL Offseason thread

[caketastydelish]

I think I can will the 49ers into the playoffs.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/08...9ers-the-time-for-wins-is-now/?obref=obinsite

 

[caketastydelish]

Jags, Texans, and Titans should all finish with from seven to nine wins. Schedule favors the Jags so I expect them to win it.

I think the Titans will be significantly better than last year.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think the Titans will be significantly better than last year.

Being better and having a better record are two different things. Last season the AFC South played the NFC East (two almost sure wins against the Giants and Washington) and the AFC East (three almost sure wins against everyone but the Cheatriots). This season they face the NFC South, where the only team even on the border of soft is the Bucs, and the AFC West, where the Raiders and Broncos are maybes. So every team in the AFC South is trading in a 5-3 minimum for half the season on a schedule where even a solid performance might run 3-5.

 

[caketastydelish]

After reviewing the Titans schedule, I'd be highly surprised if they don't win at least 10 of their games. Obviously this is factoring in what happened to Andrew Luck, but still.

edit: I will confess that they "lucked out" with AFC West because they play the easier teams (Broncos and Raiders) as away games. Games I think they can win regardless of where they play.

Then they have home field against Chargers and Chiefs, which could actually mean something. They should win at least two games against AFC South (Panthers and Bucs), and I anticipate the Texans will be beat up and miserable by the end of the season, so those are games they should also win. They will beat the Colts both times and the Bills should be easy pickings. These are all games I'm confident they can win, which puts them at 9 wins at a bare minimum. Meaning more realistically, they will win at least one more of the other games.

 

[caketastydelish]

Something I just thought of. One team that (potentially) could be pretty good is the Broncos. I say that very hesitantly because they have a new HC who has never been a HC before so we have no idea how he'll do.

If he ends up being all that, at least defensively, then that should make things interesting. Flacco has a higher upside than Keenum IMO, and more importantly, they now have the Steeler's o-line coach (has consistently had a successful record putting up good o-lines).

I'm far from certain that the Broncos will be great, but the upside is there. They could potentially improve on both sides of the ball, which would obviously make them a solid team.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I based my projections on the Titans, Texans, and Jags all splitting with each other and beating the Colts twice.

 

[caketastydelish]

I think the Titans will beat the Texans both times. The Texans are already worse than they were last year (while the Titans have improved), and if injury-prone J.J. Watt or Deshaun Watson goes down (legitimate chance of happening especially by near the end of the season), they have absolutely no one else who can replace them.

The Jags are a more legit threat.

 

[rah]

I don't think anyone can plan on beating Watson twice. The only way is if he's sitting on the bench or in the hospital.

 

[caketastydelish]

He has a decent chance of being in the hospital. But secondly, and more importantly, we know for a fact that their defense will be a lot worse. They’ve experienced downgrades in their secondary and they will be without Clowney. The Titans, with their exceptionally talented offense, will absolutely torch them.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

It isn't like Mariota has demonstrated that he is as bulletproof as Superman either. I can't be any more confident that the Titans make it to those games at full power than I can be about the Texans, so I think it is best to predict a split at this point.

 

[caketastydelish]

The Titans have more talent overall. Probably on both sides of the ball. The Titans also have a vastly superior backup QB situation than the Texans. Or almost any other team for that matter.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I dunno about "more talent overall," but I agree on their backup quarterback. Problem being that is still backup. Tannehill hasn't proven to be a superior talent even when he was getting starter reps in practice. I doubt that he will set the world on fire if Mariota goes down. Probably better than handing the ball to Jacoby Brissett...oh, wait, he's the starter!

 

[caketastydelish]

Tannehill is superior to the vast majority of backups in the league.

And yes, they are better on both sides of the ball.

Offense: Corey Davis, Adam Humphries (one of the best slot receivers in the game), promising prospect A.J. Brown, D. Walker as their tight end, running back Derick Henry, and a vastly superior offensive line than what the Texans have. I don’t deny for a second that Watson is better than Mariota and that Deandre Hopkins is better than any wide receiver the Titans have, but overall, the Titans have far more talent

On defense: you could say the Texans have the better defensive line but that argument is much harder to make without Clowney. I’d say the Titans are slightly better at linebacker. What absolutely sets the Titans apart from Texans defensively, though, is their secondary. The Titans secondary is much better, no contest.

Edit: if J.J. or Watson goes down either one of those would single handedly end the Texans from being any kind of competitive. There’s not a single player on the Titans roster where the same can be said. And the fact that Watt and Watson are both injury prone to begin means they are really walking on thin ice.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Tannehill is superior to the vast majority of starters in the league.

If I were an argumentative sort...oh, wait, I am an argumentative sort...I would ask you respectfully to back up this claim here.

And even if you could that doesn't change the fact that coming in on the minimal practice reps that a backup gets might be in his skill set but if it is it has never been demonstrated so assuming it is there seems...unrealistic.

 

[caketastydelish]

... what? You have defended Tannehills playing ability yourself before.

Edit: and Tannehill will also have far more talent to work with in Tennessee
than he ever had in Miami.

 

[Serutan]

Here's how I see the AFCS:

Titans - A term firmly mired in mediocrity although I think Vrabel may actually be a good coach,
strange as that sounds for a branch of the Darth Hoodie tree. 9-7 is their ceiling.

Texans - Theoretically, they have the best QB in the divsion but their O-line could easily
neutralize him if not flat out get him killed. I also suspect that the atmosphere
there may be a bit on the toxic side with O'Brien's power play and his "handling" of
Clowney's contract situation. It's like Bell last year in that he is untradeable
because he's not under contract so they can't patch the O-line with him as it were.

Jags - Hard to read for me. Perhaps the best talent overall, the real question is how quickly
and well the offense meshes with Foles. It will be better than with Bortles, but how much?
And I don't think the defense has a lot of room to slip.

Colts - The real wild card. I know a lot of people think Brissett is a huge dropoff, but I disagree. It's true he is a dropoff but anyone basing a big dropoff on 2017 is using a foundation of sand; that year he was thrown to the wolves. He had next to no time to learn the playbook, next to no practice time with the starters, bad talent around him (even though Ballard had shown up he was still trying to dig up to ground level), and bad coaching. IMO he didn't do that badly all things considered. And oh by the way he has finished every game he's started unlike another ex-Elvii backup QB that has been discussed here. This time around, he is in a much better position to succeed as the circumstances above no longer apply. Even though I wouldn't favor them I do think they have a realistic shot at the division or a wild card.

As for who wins? I think a random number generator is the best way to predict this division.
I'll put my neck on the chopping block when the new regular season thread opens.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

... what? You have defended Tannehills playing ability yourself before.

Edit: and Tannehill will also have far more talent to work with in Tennessee
than he ever had in Miami.

There's a HUGE difference between defending his playing ability and anointing him as a top sixteen caliber quarterback, which is what "better than the majority of starters in the league" means, much less "better than the VAST majority of starters in the league" which by pretty much any definition of "vast" would require him being a top ten caliber quarterback. I think he is good enough to start, in a few places. Indianapolis, for instance, comes immediately to mind. Washington, though they have the draft pick they wanted. I think he could give Andy Dalton a run for his money in Cincinnati. Once the Lamar Jackson experiment blows up and everyone involved has been fired he could start in Baltimore. If I were a 49er fan I'd much rather see him coming out of the tunnel than Garoppolo, but that's driven as much by salary cap as demonstrated greater ability.

 

[caketastydelish]

That doesn’t contract what I’m saying. I said he’s better than the vast majority of backups, not starters.

 

[rah]

The problem is, I'd flip them and make him the starter.

 

[caketastydelish]

I'd disagree. Mariota is far more dual-threat than Tannehill. Not to mention this is the last year of Mariota' contract. Give him the "do or die" time just to see what happens. Also, Mariota is familiar with this offense much more than Tannehill.