Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

[Joij21]

and who's going to support that ? Bidon ? Aren't they supposed to fight China in 2030 ? The commander of the US transport airplanes thing required his troops to be ready to execute POWs like gloriously but not exactly in the free media ... Is it going to be claimed that was a joke or two ?

Well considering a sizable amount of China's oil is imported from Iran, blowing up Iran would actually hurt the Chinese economy in a way that could be beneficial to the United States come some theoretical need to start &#$@ by 2030.

Also that 50% launch failure from Iran is just abysmal. They'd need a barrage of at least 60,000+ missiles all at once to do anything of substance. And I don't even believe they have that many!

Netanyahu should just bomb them, ignore sleepy Joe's milquetoast pleas, and reclaim his masculine dominance over another old white man.

 

[Lexicus]

Israel are trying to go "we defeated this massive attack with next-to-no real damage, super easy, barely an inconvenience" and "this was a horrific attack that presented a real danger to us" at the same time. I'd laugh, but uh they've proven this line works before, so.

There are a bunch of weird things about this whole story. I read yesterday that the US National Security spokesman or whatever his title is, Kirby, said it wad categorically false that Iran had given warning of the attack before it happened, but I remember reporting from earlier in the weekend saying Israel was on high alert because Iran had announced that a retaliation for the Israeli consulate strike was imminent, so even if Iran didn't give specific or precise warning about the attack, they certainly did "telegraph" it in general terms.

I've also heard conflicting reports about where the strike was aimed, with Zionists claiming it was aimed mostly at civilians while other reports claim it was mostly aimed at the airbase from which the Israeli aircraft that attacked the Iranian target in Damascus took off and other military targets. At least some of the drones and missiles do seem to have been aimed at that airbase because there were reports of minor damage to that airbase (in the Negev).

Meanwhile the Intercept reported that over half the Iranian projectiles experienced technical failures with the US shooting down over half of the remaining ones.

This has been reported as a "total failure" for Iran but I wouldn't jump to conclusions quite so hastily. Iran may have gained more information about Israel's missile defense capabilities (my guess is the reason the US and other aircraft were used here is to prevent Israel from showing too much of its missile defense hand, so to speak). The other question of course is what was the cost of the Iranian salvo and what was the cost of shooting it down. I think it's likely that Iran can keep shooting drones at Israel faster than Israel can manufacture interceptors, at least in the medium to long term.

 

[r16]

this so called intermediate range weapons were limited by a ton of treaties . The most horrible of them all , due to American propaganda , was the SS-20 . Limited to hitting Europe , China and Japan , it looked possible that it might be an evil Commie trick if it was made an ICBM by attaching it to a "booster" or first stage ... As Iranians are not a part to SALT or START or whatever the hell , all those in-one-piece-Iranians-are-stupid missiles you see in the news are those first stages raining down on Iraq after sending their payloads on their way . Will be charitable and say maybe 5 missiles were kaputt and whatever .

 

[r16]

the target is the F-35 base . The second base has F-16s , still hard hitting and dangerous but not important to the extent of the F-35 that has "clear" advantages in attacking in Iran . They are close by , taking advantage of any supporting decoys Iranians might have deployed and far enough so that there would be less "confusion" for Iranians . Because this seems paltry to unwashed masses , the Iranians are lying that they so effectively blew up a spy center that nobody will see it .

 

[amadeus]

I read yesterday that the US National Security spokesman or whatever his title is, Kirby, said it wad categorically false that Iran had given warning of the attack before it happened

I wonder if there are not some domestic politics involved here: would he want to admit the U.S. has a diplomatic backchannel with Iran? (We almost certainly do anyway.)

If he denies we knew about the attack, we can say how strong and tough our defenses and intelligence capabilities are. If he admits it, it opens the administration to attacks from the right. (Though, we would probably be doing the same thing under the GOP anyway.)

I’m thinking this is a coordinated circus act. At least cable news gets some extra ratings points?

 

[Kyriakos]

In what world would tv channels have knowledge of when the attack will happen, but the White House would not?

It was a circus act. The question is whether Iran wanted to gain anything other than throwing a bone to the enraged (by lack of retaliation up to then) iranian public. Directly attacking Israel, by Iran, was obviously something new, even when done in a theatrical manner meant to prevent actual losses (or minimize them vastly) by the defender.

 

[Lexicus]

I wonder if there are not some domestic politics involved here: would he want to admit the U.S. has a diplomatic backchannel with Iran? (We almost certainly do anyway.)

If he denies we knew about the attack, we can say how strong and tough our defenses and intelligence capabilities are. If he admits it, it opens the administration to attacks from the right. (Though, we would probably be doing the same thing under the GOP anyway.)

I believe he's saying that Iran gave no specific warning of when or how the attack would happen, which I think is likely true, but that Iran broadly "telegraphed" the attack before it happened seems incontrovertible.

 

[Kyriakos]

It wasn't a retaliation anyway. If someone kills your dog, you don't retaliate by moving a drone on a collision course with their window (and what sleeping being may be past it) and prior to that informing them that you will do that so they will get a few friends with airguns to hit at the drone. If Iran wanted to actually retaliate, it would secretly plan the hit of an israeli embassy, meant to kill people there.

From the outside, we can only suppose that this show happened just so that the leadership of that theocracy could keep its own people content, instead of having a revolt on its hands. One wonders if this was the right "retaliation" even in that respect, however.
Maybe a tint in their favor is that they did send drones/missiles directly against Israel. Has Israel ever dared to directly hit Iran instead of embassies/people of Iran in other countries? (it has done plenty of the latter).

 

[Joij21]

In what world would tv channels have knowledge of when the attack will happen, but the White House would not?

Joe Biden is so out of the loop now that everyday occurrences are considered to be 'unprecedented'.

But don't worry the easter bunny has his back and will properly assist & advise him in his crusade against mighty Persia.

 

[amadeus]

I believe he's saying that Iran gave no specific warning of when or how the attack would happen, which I think is likely true, but that Iran broadly "telegraphed" the attack before it happened seems incontrovertible.

Given the geography of Israel being a relatively small and narrow country, I think an ostensibly broad warning is in effect more specific but also allows some plausible deniability.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Funny how people begin to extract complicated conclusions trying to explain the results they don't understand or like. The true is Iran attacked with everything it had, from several countries and several directions simultaneously. It included a mix of drones, cruise missiles and mainly ballistic missiles trying to sature Israel defenses. It didn't telegraphed anything, at least on purpose, but any attack was going to be detected in advance by Israel and USA. Drones waves are detected the moment they are in the air, aircraft taking off to launch cruise missiles are detected, ballistic missiles launches are also detected. Apparently Iran didn't targeted Israel cities tough (even Iran know that would be a bad idea), but did its best to hit something in Israel. It simply has not such capability and it failed.

It is like in Ukrainian war. First Ukraine army was weak and Russia was going to win in 3 days, then Russia fails and suddenly Ukraine was the strongest army in Europe. Nope Ukraine was weak indeed, Russia just failed.

Same for the case of Iran, there was not any understanding or pre warning. Iran attacked when it could. Iran had to attack and it did the best but it could. Its attack was simply was thwarted, as anyone with some knowledge would have expected. Iran military included.

 

[banzay13]

Iran has definitely only used a very very very small portion of its stockpile. And has figured out certain things for itself. Such as - supersonic ballistic missiles pass the Iron Dome. Drones and cruise missiles (even if thousands of them are fired) - will be shot down by aircraft still over Jordan

 

[Lexicus]

Funny how people begin to extract complicated conclusions trying to explain the results they don't understand or like.

An interesting preamble to a post that is literally nothing but conclusions you like.

It didn't telegraphed anything, at least on purpose,

Do you think that other people here can't remember things that happened earlier this month?
This is from two weeks ago:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-will-retaliate-israels-attack-its-damascus-consulate-2024-04-02/

even Iran know that would be a bad idea

Yeah, it's almost like the picture of Iranian leadership being crazed with hatred of Jews and Israel and incapable of any calculated or rational action, painted by some on this website, is a fiction

 

[Moriarte]

So what happens next after the Israel bill passes or fails in Congress, I wonder. Clearly, the quiet from Israel is in anticipation of improved financing for the military, courtesy of the American people. But when they will receive the financing, will they fall back to tried and proven retaliation mode, or contain themselves this time to not step over the red line, which can easily end up in wider regional conflict, or even WW?

 

[r16]

the essential thing is Iran is still the weaker one in the equation with the madness about supporting Israel . It was telegraphed and it was so much telegraphed that it was a matter of jokes . Paper tiger Iran begging America for permission to fire into some empty desert for a fake show of force . It became a paper tiger Iran that couldn't hit anything . In the Middle East it is only the perceptions that matter and that Israel is not yet attacking the Refah town will be described as a result or something . Punishing Israel for not supporting is so big a mistake that the crazed will not see it coming at all . Not that the punishing would have meant to Tel Aviv anything but still . Another day , another lack of Israel's declaration of war on Russia ...

drones too much in number , America and UK will have to help . That was a standart thing but previously not so openly . The "success" of the ballistics kinda sorta implies Iran defeated the US and the UK , too . Not very happy in the West at the moment .

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Iran has definitely only used a very very very small portion of its stockpile. And has figured out certain things for itself. Such as - supersonic ballistic missiles pass the Iron Dome. Drones and cruise missiles (even if thousands of them are fired) - will be shot down by aircraft still over Jordan

So you expected Iran to use all it's stockpile and then turn in a peace loving unarmed country and the ayatollah to retire to a hippie commune or something. Otoh there are an operational limit in the number of missiles which can be fired simultaneously.

An interesting preamble to a post that is literally nothing but conclusions you like.

LoL what conclusion?. It is simply what happened even if you find it disgusting, it is not me who is making any conclusions of my own to conform reality to my tastes as others here do.

Do you think that other people here can't remember things that happened earlier this month?
This is from two weeks ago:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-will-retaliate-israels-attack-its-damascus-consulate-2024-04-02/

Obviously half a month ago after the Israeli attack to Iran assets on Syria. Perfectly timed for the Israeli fighters to take off in time.

 

[Gorbles]

LoL what conclusion?. It is simply what happened even if you find it disgusting, it is not me who is making any conclusions of my own to conform reality to my tastes as others here do.

It's not simply what happened, it's your personal opinion of what happened. That's all there is to it.

 

[r16]

there is absolutely no change in Russian thinking about engaging the Western troops deployed so it is just a waste of time . For the friends of some place not in the Middle East . Israelis DO understand they are stuck , they regret their lack of action when they were mistaken to use their long haired bunch for increased American hence Western support and they are merely embarrassing their enemies with:

a screenshot and not an actual link

of course the old guys tell me it was quite the same back in the day , too .

as in there is no need to declare the West is matchless and everybody must tremble in fear and so on and so forth and whatever .

 

[Thorgalaeg]

It's not simply what happened, it's your personal opinion of what happened. That's all there is to it.

My personal opinion how? Iran launched a lot of missiles and there is not evidence of any significant damage at all, period, neither Iran is able to provide any evidence. Then there comes the usual 'smart' theories about Iran telegraphing and such which are totally baseless. A big loss of time as always.

 

[r16]

uh , you can always ask for a RD tag . That shuts up evil real quick .