[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[EnglishEdward]

The true extent to which the Ukrainian Army wanted to and would have attacked anyway or attacked as
prompted by the USA with promises of aid (albeit is no aid unless you attack a promise or deception)
may be known to future historians privy to comms records; we here can only have differing views.

What has become clear is that attacks on well defended and prepared positions are very costly.

I cannot help thinking of:

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The true extent to which the Ukrainian Army wanted to and would have attacked anyway or attacked as
prompted by the USA with promises of aid (albeit is no aid unless you attack a promise or deception)
may be known to future historians privy to comms records; we here can only have differing views.

So what did you base your claim on?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: It is too easy to drag the past into this thread and push the conversation off the rails. Please stay with current news. Thanks.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787511688717054360

Another su-34 bites the dust. Confirmed by maybe the only reliable Russian source (fighter-bomber)
This time no pilot survived apparently. They were the best according to said Russian source.

It seems Ukraine is making good use of its new patriot missiles.

 

[EnglishEdward]

So what did you base your claim on?

Alas, I have typed many things in this thread which people might interpret as claims.

So which particular claim are you asking about ?

 

[Verbose]

The true extent to which the Ukrainian Army wanted to and would have attacked anyway or attacked as
prompted by the USA with promises of aid (albeit is no aid unless you attack a promise or deception)
may be known to future historians privy to comms records; we here can only have differing views.

What has become clear is that attacks on well defended and prepared positions are very costly.

I cannot help thinking of:

You should be in favour of an expeditionary airforce for Ukraine then?

The Ukranians tried to kind of just power through the Russian lines the first week of last year's offensive. And then they scaled it back to the slow grind of manually clearing mines (at night) followed by small-unit infiltration, and just gnawing away at the Russian positions. To conserve manpower, and gear. And the end result we now know.

Then there seems to have been some pretty daft in particular US commentary about how the US would do it, which when fully dumb somehow managed to miss the small detail that doing it like that assumes the Flying Artillery acting in full freedom with impunity, and Ukraine doesn't have it. Not for Ukraine not asking for it, from about day one of the war.

I'm not sure why we should keep hashing over some Americans saying some dumb stuff quite a while back?

Obviously we can myopically focus on dumb stuff said by Americans until the cows come home. In fact, a lot of the Russian commentary on the war does precisely that – because it is in Russian interest to deny Ukraine agency, ignore European agency, and try to make it out as all about the US – but why should we?

 

[EnglishEdward]

You should be in favour of an expeditionary airforce for Ukraine then?

I am not in favour of any UK expedition to Ukraine at all.

I'm not sure why we should keep hashing over some Americans saying some dumb stuff quite a while back?

All right, what is the US saying right now ?

Obviously we can myopically focus on dumb stuff said by Americans until the cows come home. In fact, a lot of the Russian commentary on the war does precisely that – because it is in Russian interest to deny Ukraine agency, ignore European agency, and try to make it out as all about the US – but why should we?

I don't think I have been quoting Russian commentry.

And the concept that I should not mention unpalatable things,
merely because Russia is trying to propagandise around them,
would merely allow Russian propaganda to paralise my analysis.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Having encouraged Ukraine to launch an offensive in 2023 against a superior army,
in a direction the Russians knew about months in advance to enable fortifications
and could continually observe the build up and deployment of troops, to no benefit,
in exchange for more limited USA aid

This claim.

 

[red_elk]

Having encouraged Ukraine to launch an offensive in 2023 against a superior army,
in a direction the Russians knew about months in advance to enable fortifications
and could continually observe the build up and deployment of troops, to no benefit,
in exchange for more limited USA aid, the US National Security Adviser is saying
that they are going to do the same thing again.

That's in hindsight.
Back then they believed they were launching offensive against crowd of demoralized mobnicks who were supposed to run away at first sight of Leopards coming their way.

 

[Snowygerry]

It is surprising how two people that lived next to eachother for centuries can be so completely wrong in their assessment of eachothers fighting capabilities/political will.

Two years of Russia’s war in Ukraine: mistakes made and lessons learned

Saturday marks two years since the fateful February 24 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These ye...

www.lrt.lt

An important lesson that the West must still learn is that avoiding escalation is not effective in the face of the war. On the contrary, the logic of escalation dominance must be applied, according to Jermalavičius.


“In the West, especially in Washington, Berlin, perhaps Paris, and elsewhere, the strategy of avoiding escalation dominates, and it leads to very slow aid delivery [...]. This allows Ukraine to survive, but it doesn’t help to bring it closer to victory,” he said.

 

[EnglishEdward]

@ Ziggy Stardust

Oh that, I thought that was common knowledge from the
generality of news reporting over many months.

We even had a Danish poster confidently post here that Ukraine
would break through, and isolate the Crimea from land supply.

@ Red_Elk

I never for one moment believed that the withdrawal
of Russian forces from north of Kiev via Belarus
or from Kherson over the very big river, meant that.

And if the Ukraine/USA administrations believed that
then, all I can quote is the great late Frankie Howard
saying that my "flabber" has never been so "ghasted".

@ Snowgerry

I am not sure that what the ordinary people actually there
actually believed even comes in to question and I doubt that
the politicians or generals etc even bothered to ask them.

 

[Farm Boy]

Why ask somebody you are trying to turn into meat? Seems counterproductive to humanize it.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Some US general once said a British general was a general who'd fight to the last Australian.

Now I've never quite bought the argument the war is primarily a US attempt to weaken Russia by fighting to
the last Ukrainian, I think that would be God_Emperor Vlad Rasputin Putin has something to do with it.

The Ukrainian strategy is clearly to get the US, Nato and the EU, UK etc more actively involved.

But what exactly is the US strategy now ?

 

[Gedemon]

We even had a Danish poster confidently post here that Ukraine
would break through, and isolate the Crimea from land supply.

The offensive failed, but that was the goal. I'm sure everyone will find reasons for that (not enough support / overconfidence / under-preparation / underestimation of Russian's defensive lines, ...) but if it hadn't failed, it could* have made the war shorter.

*note the conditional

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

@ Ziggy Stardust

Oh that, I thought that was common knowledge from the
generality of news reporting over many months.

We even had a Danish poster confidently post here that Ukraine
would break through, and isolate the Crimea from land supply.

Now give me support for the claim you made. I put it in bold.

Having encouraged Ukraine to launch an offensive in 2023 against a superior army,
in a direction the Russians knew about months in advance to enable fortifications
and could continually observe the build up and deployment of troops, to no benefit,
in exchange for more limited USA aid

Or does the "oh that" dodge (which doesn't event address the non-bolded part, so it's a really obvious dodge) mean you got nothing and are acting deliberately obtuse?

 

[red_elk]

@ Red_Elk

I never for one moment believed that the withdrawal
of Russian forces from north of Kiev via Belarus
or from Kherson over the very big river, meant that.

And if the Ukraine/USA administrations believed that
then, all I can quote is the great late Frankie Howard
saying that my "flabber" has never been so "ghasted".

The fact is they launched the offensive. They believed there are good chances of success, otherwise they probably wouldn't do it.

 

[Gorbles]

The fact is they launched the offensive. They believed there are good chances of success, otherwise they probably wouldn't do it.

"a good chance of success" isn't what you originally claimed they believed.

 

[red_elk]

Another Abrams bites the dust.
Looks like Ukraine started to deploy them again, judging by several videos with them being destroyed in last several days.
First 5 were destroyed in about a week somewhere in the beginning of April IIRC.

 

[Gedemon]

Another Abrams bites the dust.

And one T-64
vs
four T-72 and three T-80

1:3.5 ratio, as usual.

After the golf carts, there are now assault using motor bikes...

And there is also that, which is, AFAIK, completely new:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1clh3eb/russian_ka29_helicopter_destroys_a_ukranian_naval

Helicopter has won this time.

 

[red_elk]

1:3.5 ratio, as usual.

That's quite unusual for the sources you commonly refer to, they tend to have it like 1:10 or so.