North King
blech
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2004
- Messages
- 18,165
Using polls cited on Wikipedia, I figured out the general election electoral vote for the two candidates. Keep in mind that this is an extremely early set of polls, so they should only give a rough idea of who has more catchup work to do.
I also don't know the sample size for any of the polls, so they could have ridiculously large margins of error; however they mostly seem reasonable.
Depending on how the campaign went, Obama could win in a landslide or lose in a landslide, at least in the electoral college. He would win the popular vote, most likely, but a number of states could swing by very narrow margins. However, I believe that to some degree this would be offset by thorough campaigning
Clinton would win a general election in the electoral college, but the win would be pretty narrow either way. The number of swing states is very few. I suspect there's some polling error here, and the bias of recent campaigning in, say, Ohio. If Ohio were a swing state, note that she would not automatically win, and it would indeed come down to the swing states.
This does raise the question of what a Clinton/Obama ticket or vice versa would do: would they destroy each other's advantages, and lose thoroughly, or would they manage to take both of their core demographics, and win handily?
We may well find out, depending on how the primary goes from here.
Anyway, feel free to discuss.
I also don't know the sample size for any of the polls, so they could have ridiculously large margins of error; however they mostly seem reasonable.
Depending on how the campaign went, Obama could win in a landslide or lose in a landslide, at least in the electoral college. He would win the popular vote, most likely, but a number of states could swing by very narrow margins. However, I believe that to some degree this would be offset by thorough campaigning
Clinton would win a general election in the electoral college, but the win would be pretty narrow either way. The number of swing states is very few. I suspect there's some polling error here, and the bias of recent campaigning in, say, Ohio. If Ohio were a swing state, note that she would not automatically win, and it would indeed come down to the swing states.
This does raise the question of what a Clinton/Obama ticket or vice versa would do: would they destroy each other's advantages, and lose thoroughly, or would they manage to take both of their core demographics, and win handily?
We may well find out, depending on how the primary goes from here.
Anyway, feel free to discuss.
