2 x Sci Leaders

[xyresic]

Ottomans on a really bad start. Regent. Working for a Philosophy Slingshot. Get Philosophy and then take Map Making as my free tech. I didn't even realize what happened till I started cycling through my units.

Not a great pic, so look closely at the list of units stationed in Istanbul. Both on the same turn. Think I'll go get a lotto ticket.

 

[Son_Of_Dido]

I've gotten it to happen to me a second time the other day.

Both times on a Philosophy-Republic slingshot, both times with the Germans.

It is the most amazing luck, no?

I wonder what the actual odds are of this happening.

With that Island start, I'm thinking you take G Lighthouse and G Library, and then get out and meet people?

 

[nerovats]

Odds are 1 in 400 for scientific civ and 9 in 1000 for non scientific.

 

[anaxagoras]

You slipped a zero, there. The non-scientific odds are 9 in 10,000.

 

[Xethorsiph]

Since Ottomans are scientific, the chances of this are 1 in 1600.

 

[Othniel]

Since Ottomans are scientific, the chances of this are 1 in 1600.

No, nerovats is right. For a SCI civ, chances are 1 in 400.

A sci civ has 5% chance of getting an SGL when they are the first to discover a new tech. The math for SGL events happening back-to-back are:

0.05 x 0.05 = 0.0025 OR 1 in 400.

 

[Chamnix]

The AI should demand a reload.

 

[anaxagoras]

Right, but for non-scientific, the math is 0.03 x 0.03 = 0.0009, or 9 in 10,000 (i.e. just a bit less than 1 in 1,000).

Cross-posted with your edit, Othniel, but I'm still correct. 9 in 1,000 is actually greater than 1 in 400 (which equates to 2.5 in 1,000), so you know that can't be right.

 

[Othniel]

Right, but for non-scientific, the math is 0.03 x 0.03 = 0.0009, or 9 in 10,000 (i.e. just a bit less than 1 in 1,000).

Cross-posted with your edit, Othniel, but I'm still correct. 9 in 1,000 is actually greater than 1 in 400 (which equates to 2.5 in 1,000), so you know that can't be right.

Cursed be my slow editing!

Yeah, once I stopped and thought for just ONE more second, I realized it would be logically impossibly for it to be 9 in 1000.

 

[Othniel]

The AI should demand a reload.

Only humans have the right to a reload.

 

[Spoonwood]

Nerovats said:

Odds are 1 in 400 for scientific civ and 9 in 1000 for non scientific.

Othniel said

No, nerovats is right. For a SCI civ, chances are 1 in 400.

I'll assume nerovats meant 'probability' instead of 'odds'. The probability for two consecutive SGLs (assuming such events independent) as a scientific tribe, as already pointed out, equals (1/20)^2=1/400. However, the odds for such equals (1/400)/(1-(1/400))=(1/400)/(399/400)=1/399.

 

[ecuwins]

That is the bomb! Sometimes it is just like magic. I have gotten up to 5 SGLs in games but never simultaneously.

 

[anaxagoras]

I'll assume nerovats meant 'probability' instead of 'odds'. The probability for two consecutive SGLs (assuming such events independent) as a scientific tribe, as already pointed out, equals (1/20)^2=1/400. However, the odds for such equals (1/400)/(1-(1/400))=(1/400)/(399/400)=1/399.

Alright, if we're going to get pedantic, odds shouldn't really be expressed as a fraction. They should be expressed as a ratio. So the odds of getting two consecutive scientific leaders for a scientific civilization are properly 1:399 (colloquially, "one to three hundred ninety-nine"). Which is, of course, exactly equal to the probability of 1/400 (colloquially, "one in four hundred" or "one out of four hundred").

I think the discussion was enough to disambiguate the issue, but YMMV.

 

[Spoonwood]

The distinction between probability and odds doesn't come as pedantic, since odds and probability don't equal each other in general. They are conceptually distinct, as well as numerically distinct (usually). Saying 1/399 as opposed to 1:399 does since using '/' as opposed to ':' or vice versa has no effect on meaning.

 

[anaxagoras]

The meaning was clear in the initial discussion.

 

[Turner]

Moderator Action: Okay...moving on....

 

[Sharwood]

Awesome. I'd get that lottery ticket, and proposition a few women while you're at it.

I'd go with what Son of Dido said on an island start. Incidentally, that island looks EXACTLY the same as the one I started on in my current game. The only possible differences are where you have your cities and the parts I can't see.