A What if: WWI Reversed

[Verbose]

Ottomans would rather like to have Balkans (Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia etc..) than Somalia or Sudan.
Yemen is important so it is good to keep it.

Well, in this scenario they can't have either. Serbia and Bosnia are ear-marked for Austria, and Bulgaria is a fellow victorious ally. As said, the Ottomans are getting screwed in this scenario.

 

[Azkonus]

Well, in this scenario they can't have either. Serbia and Bosnia are ear-marked for Austria, and Bulgaria is a fellow victorious ally. As said, the Ottomans are getting screwed in this scenario.

Man, we aren't gonna get screwed, we are waiting for Mustafa to save and lead us

But, what I implied as many of you know, Ottoman Empire was formed and centered around Balkans (Selim made a big mistake when he expanded the borders 3 times!!! of its previous length in his lifetime)

When Ottomans lost the Balkans they lost everything. So I assume if they gor victorious from WWI they would somehow concentrate to get the Balkans back.

Don't forget lots of generals asked permission from Ataturk to march and take at least Salonica back which he refused.

 

[Verbose]

Man, we aren't gonna get screwed, we are waiting for Mustafa to save and lead us

But, what I implied as many of you know, Ottoman Empire was formed and centered around Balkans (Selim made a big mistake when he expanded the borders 3 times!!! of its previous length in his lifetime)

When Ottomans lost the Balkans they lost everything. So I assume if they gor victorious from WWI they would somehow concentrate to get the Balkans back.

Don't forget lots of generals asked permission from Ataturk to march and take at least Salonica back which he refused.

Yeah I know.
But the scenario dosn't exactly allow the Ottomans to act as they otherwise would.

There is no way Germany and Austria will throw loyal ally Bulgaria to the Ottomans. Forget it. And as said, Serbia and Bosnia are marked for Austria. Bosnia was already wrested from the Ottomans before the war, and the war was technically "about" Austria punishing Serbia. That's why the Ottomans are being "compensated" elsewhere. I guess the Ottomans could try to fight Germany and Austria over it eventually, but that would be a terribly bad idea.

In fact, I'm even pretty certain that there is no way in hell Germany and Austria would accept an Ottoman annexation of Greece. Germany in particular at the time hade an actual craze for ancient Greece. It would look horribly bad if the moderna incarnation of Greece got butchered and handed to the "barbarous" Turks, allies or not allies. The Germans were pretty into the whole "300" thing, and the Turks to the minds of Europeans were way to easy to cast as "despotic oriental barbarians". Germany wouldn't want to be implicated in something like that in the eyes of the other Europeans of the day.

Same things goes for any other nations the Germans and Austrians might see as suffciently "European". They would be totally out of bounds for the Turks. They would be allowed to go after other brown barbarians. That's a set of assumptions based on a knowledge of wesern European thinking at the time, not what Turks are actually "like".

There's also the matter of who would lead a victorious Ottoman empire. Mustafa Kemal turned up as "the man of the hour" when Turkey was defeated and humiliated. If it isn't, Kemal might end up as just another general retired off to some dusty garrison town, slowly drowning in a bottle, and the surviving Ottoman Empire might well end up continuing to be run by Talat's ministery, or even by the homicial bloody fool Enver Pasha.

Really, in this scenario I can envisage a post WWI Ottoman Empire struggling bloodily, and unsuccessfully, to hold on to various unnatural additions of next to no value to it under the godawful leadership of Enver Pasha.

Enver was the special man of the Germans. They would try to reward him, personally, as much as the Ottoman state. And if Enver is in, and if the Ottomans are dependant on German help, Mustafa Kemal is out. I would think Enver would murder him at first opportunity.

 

[cubsfan6506]

The main problem with this is spain. Portugal in France to say the least didn't matter. So the Central powers wouldn't of rewarded them with such large territories for no help in their war.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Imagine that somehow in a a major battle, somehow, Britian's Navy was completed destroyed and the combined French-British army anhilated. Britian is under strict blockade and France overran. Both nations are on the verge of destruction and chaos. The US never came to the help, never showed their slight lean for the Allies.

See the problem is when and how these implausible events come to pass will have enormous bearing on what happens after.

-The british navy being completely destroyed is rather unlikly as the Grand Fleet outnumbered the High Seas Fleet 3 to 2, had considerable reserves to call up from other theatres and Britain had greater ship building capacity and the ability to import from the US.
-The 'annihilation' of the French and British armies is somewhat more plausible, but would require considerable sacrifice on the half of the germans - which is going to weaken their ability to create and project power in the post-war situation.

So we really need to know the 'how' and 'why' before predictions can be made.

I will say that Austria and Spain have nothing like the power projection, resources and will to do anything like what your map shows. Giving up bits ot india to germany turn the Indians agaisnt the germans seeing them as just another colonial oppressor, and Britain/ANZ would be really against giving up Malaya (strategic location, rubber and tin being very essential).
Plus if forced to give up every colony the allies might just 'accidently' leave massive military supplies and advisors to long running insurgencies.

 

[Dachs]

1. French-Comte was ceded to Germany

I suppose this is quasi-reasonable, but IMHO the Germans would have leaned more towards screwing with Belgium and the Channel ports than Franche-Comte.

2. Romania was spilt and ceded into three lands for Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire

Nah. Just puppet it, give administration of Ploiesti to Austria-Hungary (and maybe Rumanian Bessarabia too), and the Dobruja back to Bulgaria.

3. Bessberia and Moldova along with Crimea and Georgia, Azerbajian is ceded to the Ottoman

Bad idea. The Turks can't administrate all that gunk. They have better places to expand anyway, like (as has been elsewhere noted) Turan and Persia (a target to seize with British acquiescence and German aid after the treaty is signed by a separate protocol). Anyway, that stuff already got given to the German puppets in the Ukraine; why cede it to the Turk?

4. Greece is completely annexed to Ottoman

Also dumb. The Turks are a puppet themselves already; why should the Germans let some unreliable fool like Enver run the country if they could just have the thing puppeted to themselves. And, that supposes that Greece actually enters the war; 1917 is a ways off already, after all, and for awhile Constantine was actually extremely pro-German.

5. Libya is returned to the Ottomans along with British Possesions in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

I suppose, although the Germans more likely would just take those "Red Sea possessions" for themselves, and the British would likely as not be able to keep the Suez Canal through negotiations, because that's a bit far away from the main European theater.

6. Lands ceded over in the Treaty of Bresk-haisdfvk was spilt between Austria-Hungary and Germany

The territory was already effectively puppeted into smaller states; why not use those? It requires less work than the alternative.

7. India was given indepedence other than some areas ceded to the winning Allies

Perhaps but unlikely. There's little pull the Germans can exert over those territories, even with a great sea battle. I agree with Dis' later comment that the nature of the victory matters a good deal.

9. Some Lands in Russia Ceded to Japan to end the war with them

Japan would give up Qingdao and the German Pacific islands for Kamchatka and the Maritime Province? Uh...

Eastern Europe. You wouldn't get that much annexed German land. You would get a lot of German and Austrian supported/controlled buffer states. Finland should be among them I would think.

Yup.

But Germany would probabaly hold on to Singapore for strategic reasons as indicated.

Even with a winning fleet, Singapore would be a devil to take, I should think.

And if I was the Ottomans, why would I want Baluchistan? If Imperial Pan-Turanian ambitions are to be taken into account, the Ottoman empire should gain large swathes of land east of the Caspain sea, all the way up to China, from the Russians, since that's where a slew of Turklanguage speaking people are located. Alternatively, another set of Ottoman-dominated puppets should be set up there.

Hurrah! Let's set up Turan!

The lands Germany and AH annexed are actually following the real lands that Russia lost when they decided to surrended. So I think it would remain the same.

Yes, Russia lost them, but not really to Germany, instead to the German puppets that were set up there, like Poland (yes, Poland was originally set up by Germany) and the Ukraine.

Well, If was an Ottoman Sultan, and I could tap into the rich resources of India I would instead of the empty land of central asia. Turkey may want to have Turkic lands but not poor ones I assume.

The rich resources of Baluchistan?

If you pull the British out of Suez, its going to shoot for independence.

Technically Egypt already has independence as well as a native army, IIRC.

Even if they would be able to occupy Greece (I'm a bit dubious about that one), for how long would that last?.

I'm a lot dubious about that one. If we have this occur after Greece enters the war in 1917, then Greece's regular forces had enough men to kill the Ottoman army all by its lonesome, with an excellent tradition of partisan warfare (and proto-Special Forces in the form of evzones) and a unique naval tradition to keep alive in the Aegean Sea as pirating on the Turk supply lines. That, and Germany has no good reason to give Turkey Greece, as has been previously said.

Well I assume that the Ottomans would have emerge stronger from the War, and with German help put down the rebellions of Arabia.

The only way to have the Ottomans emerge stronger from the war is to help them out before the 1917-8 collapse, and that means that Greece doesn't even get into the war.

However, the Ottomans have before tried to unify their empire though calling for the survival of the only Muslim Caliph. Possibly, like India with Hinduism, The Ottoman could have retain their empire through the pull of the last Muslim Caliph on Earth and with Islam. It would be the thing that unites their Empire and giving the Ottomans enough time to deal with the Christian Greeks.

The Ottomans back when they were relatively stronger couldn't hold onto Greece; what makes you think that they will be able to keep control during the 1920s, especially when you've so conveniently introduced the element of religious war that is sure to bring Russia down on the Turks' head, and even if Germany has weakened Russia significantly dealing with internal and external problems will kill the Turks.

4. Ottoman empire won't occupy the whole Greece neither anything in Romania or Ukraine. It will probably get the most islands from Greece, but Greece will continue to exsist like a state.

Some coastal islands are eminently possible.

Serbia and Romania will continue to exist like states.
6.Austro-Hungary will get land from Romania, Italy, Poland and Serbia.

Nah. Serbia won't exist as a state anymore, it'll be absorbed into Austria to form a tripartite state, so the "Slavania" portion of "Austria-Hungary-Slavania" can counterbalance the "Hungary" part. Other than that, though, Austria should be asking for little land: anything extra in Poland is silly (Germany wants to puppet it and besides it would be difficult to hold geographically) and Italy should only lose Venetia.

And why shouldn't Portugal withstand the invasion?

Spain was militarily incompetent, true, but Portugal is more militarily incompetent, generally.

Poland would never be independant. Germany and AH would crush the moment it trys, you have seen History work itself, its not going to just let it be free, nor is Poland strong enough to handle two victorius powers. I know Polish independance is important to you, but think logically

An independent Poland in the Congress Kingdom borders or something close to them under the control of a Hohenzollern king makes a good deal of sense from the German point of view (lets them keep the Russians away from German borders) and was actually established with the land from the Treaty of Brest Litovsk.

Greece entered the war not until 1917 and in this timeline a Greek entry is highly unlikely.

THANK you. Sanity FTW.

As said, the Ottomans are getting screwed in this scenario.

It's hard not to screw the Ottomans after about 1700 or so.

Man, we aren't gonna get screwed, we are waiting for Mustafa to save and lead us

Ooooh, Mustafa Kemal, a mad genius whose intelligence consists entirely of sitting there and waiting while the French and Communists give him free weapons for promising things he doesn't have yet. Yudenich and Allenby both beat the tar out of him, so he must be a great warlord indeed.

Enver was the special man of the Germans. They would try to reward him, personally, as much as the Ottoman state. And if Enver is in, and if the Ottomans are dependant on German help, Mustafa Kemal is out. I would think Enver would murder him at first opportunity.

-The british navy being completely destroyed is rather unlikly as the Grand Fleet outnumbered the High Seas Fleet 3 to 2, had considerable reserves to call up from other theatres and Britain had greater ship building capacity and the ability to import from the US.

Pssh, what about the German quantitative advantage?

Yeah, it's silly. One decisive battle isn't completely out of reach, but at the same time it isn't entirely likely.

-The 'annihilation' of the French and British armies is somewhat more plausible, but would require considerable sacrifice on the half of the germans - which is going to weaken their ability to create and project power in the post-war situation.

Uh...depends on when this happens. 1914? I think that 'sacrifices' ought be relatively low.

 

[Verbose]

Technically Egypt already has independence as well as a native army, IIRC.

Really?

Between 1883 and 1922 Egypt was properly colonised as far as I remember. Ruled pretty much personally by Sir Evelyn Baring, Lord Cromer, AKA "Over-Baring".

The Brits set up the Khawagat system, and were terribly pleased with themselves over how they made Egypt flourish under their tutelage. They really had a hard time understanding why Egyptian nationalist sentiments were continuously on the rise.

Eventually, in 1922, they technically granted Egypt independance under their own monarch. But the Egyptians quickly concluded it was a sham, leading to more nationalist rioting, and the assasination of Sirdar Sir Lee Stack in 1924.

 

[Disenfrancised]

Uh...depends on when this happens. 1914? I think that 'sacrifices' ought be relatively low.

But if it happens that early and without the huge war then the Germans aren't going to press for much (A few French colonies and trade concessions).

Really?

Between 1883 and 1922 Egypt was properly colonised as far as I remember. Ruled pretty much personally by Sir Evelyn Baring, Lord Cromer, AKA "Over-Baring".

The Brits set up the Khawagat system, and were terribly pleased with themselves over how they made Egypt flourish under their tutelage. They really had a hard time understanding why Egyptian nationalist sentiments were continuously on the rise.

Eventually, in 1922, they technically granted Egypt independance under their own monarch. But the Egyptians quickly concluded it was a sham, leading to more nationalist rioting, and the assasination of Sirdar Sir Lee Stack in 1924.

Independence isn't quite the word, but there was a seperate egyptian political hierarchy, and army command structure. If the British left the germans would have to take on the well organised and somewhat armed insurgents without the decades of local collaborators, economic links, and information networks Britain had set up.

 

[Arwon]

I think the most realistic scenario here is that the Germans somehow win naval supremacy and starve England and France into submission or collapse much like happened to Germany in 1917 and 18.

 

[Tee Kay]

In my scenario, France was largely defeated by late 1915/early 1916, Britain was successfully blockaded and sued for peace in early 1917. Meanwhile, Russia kept fighting until the Bolshevik Revolution in late 1917. The United States, Romania, Greece, China, Siam and others did not join the war. Portugal and Italy did join on the side of the Allies, in 1916 and 1915 respectively.

Independent: Finland, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Trucial Oman, Oman, Ireland, Sierra Leone
German protectorates (nominally independent): Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, White Russia, Ukraine, Belgium, Luxembourg.
Territorial changes:
- French and British Pacific Islands divided between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria. Britain still controls Tonga, French still controls French Polynesia.
- Weihaiwei (Britain) and Port Arthur (Japan) to Germany. Kwanchowwan (France) to Austria-Hungary. Britain and Portugal retains Hong Kong and Macao respectively.
- French India split between Ottoman (Mahe), Austria-Hungary (Chandernagar), Bulgaria (Yanam) and Germany (Pondicherry and Karikal).
- Germany gets all of east New Guinea, New Britain and New Ireland
- Serbia is split between Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria
- Montenegro annexed by Austria-Hungary
- Albania became Austrian protectorate
- Bessarabia given to Romania
- The Ottomans receive Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Aden, Libya, parts of Caucasus region of Russia, and the northern half of Cyprus.
- Italian Dodecannese islands given to Greece.
- Southern part of Cyprus given to Bulgaria
- British and Italian Somaliland to Bulgaria. French Somaliland given to Germany
- Austria receives Tunisia and parts of Algeria, Mozembique, Gambia and Guinea Bissau
- Germany receives Niger, French Equitorial Africa, Kenya, Belgian Congo, Zanzibar, Angola, Gold Coast, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Benin, Morocco and parts of Algeria.
- Northern France became a demilitarised zone, where German "special interest" is acknowledged.

 

[Eran of Arcadia]

What effect do you think this would have had on the Irish question?

 

[Disenfrancised]

I think the most realistic scenario here is that the Germans somehow win naval supremacy and starve England and France into submission or collapse much like happened to Germany in 1917 and 18.

But Britain and France have 2:1 ship number advantage, can call up reserves from about the world and 10 times as much Atlantic coastline as Germany had North Sea coast - Even if they did win some major battles Germany would have a job 10 times as hard with half the ships to do it.

To win the Germans need to defeat the French/make them give up (as Britain can't really fight on without a European partner) on land.

Plus all you guys handing over these vast colonial territories to Germany is going to overstretch the hell out of them - in RL the allies took over the admin of some 15 million Africans and some far scattered outposts in the pacific and far east, and shared out the costs between - here the Germans are going to have to suddenly jump to running an extra 120 million people and millions of sq kilometers of territory in every corner of the globe whilst keeping Eastern Europe in line. Things will get unpleasant for Germany rather quickly, and they know this and probably won't be quite so greedy (at least not take all that at once ).

What effect do you think this would have had on the Irish question?

Depends on when Germany wins really, if it happens before the easter rising the UK will probably let Ireland become more independent more quickly in exchange for guarantees of neutrality against the Germans. If the risings happen and are perceived in the UK as costing Britain the war...I don't predict nice things happening to Ireland. And if Germany steps in thats just adding to their overstretch...

 

[dandelman]

Fascinating !
For another great take on the Treaty of Versailles and its frightening consequences for the subsequent decades, do have a look at my wonderful new book, "A Shattered Peace: Versailles 1919 and the Price We Pay Today" [ www.shatteredpeace.com ] ... available through Amazon and most bookstores!
(i'd also be delighted to chat with your bookclub via speakerphone or video hookup!)
All the best,
David A. Andelman
david@ashatteredpeace.com

 

[Kyriakos]

Sorry, is this the Truman show?

 

[TheLastOne36]

hmm i think i see the evidence of a Polish Independance here

Just a question about the map above, If Poland is independant, then i believe Poland would gain Silesia atleast and access to the City of Danzig.

Also Even if Poland didn't get Silesia, i'm sure it would be Austro-hungarian not German.

Also what about Cyprus? Greek or Ottoman?

 

[hossam]

well the russians backed out of the war before it was over, unless of course the bolshevik revolution never happened in this scenario

 

[Tee Kay]

hmm i think i see the evidence of a Polish Independance here

Just a question about the map above, If Poland is independant, then i believe Poland would gain Silesia atleast and access to the City of Danzig.

Also Even if Poland didn't get Silesia, i'm sure it would be Austro-hungarian not German.

Also what about Cyprus? Greek or Ottoman?

I imagine Cyprus would be split two-ways, the north to the Ottomans, the south to the Greeks or some other power (maybe Bulgaria?), or it would all become Ottoman.

 

[Verbose]

hmm i think i see the evidence of a Polish Independance here

Just a question about the map above, If Poland is independant, then i believe Poland would gain Silesia atleast and access to the City of Danzig.

Why would it? It would be under full German tutelage, and the Germans would have no reason not to hold on to Silesia and Danzig.

They might set something minor up, like Congress Poland before, and add some bits frm the former Russian holdings to it.

 

[Adler17]

The only Prussian province that might be added to Poland was Posen. But not very propable though. Why Silesia (I think you mean Upper Silesia)? There a majority wanted to stay German in 1920 so there is no reason. And West Prussia was the land bridge to East Prussia. That would never be given to Poland.

Adler

 

[TheLastOne36]

The only Prussian province that might be added to Poland was Posen. But not very propable though. Why Silesia (I think you mean Upper Silesia)? There a majority wanted to stay German in 1920 so there is no reason. And West Prussia was the land bridge to East Prussia. That would never be given to Poland.

Adler

I said, Access to the port Danzig, as an enclave, is what i meant.

Also good point about Silesia. Forgot about the german population at the time.