I'm with you on this. I also like to often build a small tight empire of 8-12 cities for the mid game, and find myself questioning the wisdom of investing heavily in getting the AH up ASAP when I'm already close to getting my best sites for cities filled.
My thoughts exactly.
For Deity especially (somewhat also true for Immortal), I found that I need about 8 cities minimum to be able to compete for the victory condition I'm going for, and at that point there is not much need for a heavy investment into future settler production.
Getting the AH is then a gamble, since I might suddenly find myself forward-settled and out of room with just 3-4 cities if I delay too much.
And speaking of neighbours:
There are also times where I find that I spawn next to notorious AIs like Korea/Kongo/Austrialia etc. (for instance, Korea spawns close by and by turn 40 already has like 50 science per turn while I have like 6).
If that happens (and it happens often enough that I need to take it into account) it's usually going to be a terrible game ahead unless I kill them outright before they snowball out of control (and as a bonus I get to keep their cities anyway).
With such neighbours, I'm not only on the clock before they snowball science/culture wise, I'm also on the clock vs. the AI military tech-wise (before they get swordsmen/horsemen/crossbowmen or walls etc.), so I'll also skip the GP and Warlord's throne/AH so that I can produce more warriors and archers right now.
TL;DR:
Getting the AH with double Magnus promotions often feels like a big gamble where you're banking on large rooms of uncontested land and no nearby notorious snowball-AIs.
Getting a core of 8+ cities (usually with Pingala for the extra science/culture) just seems a lot more stable for the average early game.
Building govt plaza and the buildings also alleviates issue for lack of governor titles early. I don't usually go for researcher promotion on Pingala because I think it is easier to earn science than culture. furthermore a premature grants promotion is generally useless until you have districts. I am under the impression that it one wants to get a religion (on higher difficulty) one should not have to rely on grants since the AI would have gotten a religion even before us unlocking a few titles.
Magnus with provision is still pretty good since you can grow the early city building settlers, and if you have monumentality GA, you can shift Magnus to fringe cities to chop infrastructure and purchase a few settlers so you save time walking them. I think vertical integration is overrated, you need to devote building many industrial zones. Space Initiative is alot better.
As for lumber mills, it is a matter of production now vs production later. Even though on paper lumber mills can give you higher production in the long run the burst of production chopping provides is much higher. More so if the forest are on hills where you can place mines 2f 3p or 1f 4p mines after unlocking IZs.
True with the govt plaza, forgot the free governor promotion it gives - good point.
And definitely choose culture on Pingala first, yeah.
What I like with Pingala (
if going for a religion) is that it's usually a 50/50 to whether or not the AI goes for religion super early (at which point I need to do holy site prayers).
If they don't push heavily however, I have the option to go for +100% GP generation (to get the prophet "naturally") and just focus on more settlers in the meantime over those prayers.
Vertical Integration is kind of overrated indeed, but if I already invested 2 points into Magnus early I might as well just get it later in the game (for instance, for a second space port city) so that those vital early points into Magnus weren't totally "wasted".
I do prefer lumber mills to mines though - they produce more (early on at least), and usually lets me keep 2 food while working them, allowing me to grow further (I might not always have high food tiles available).