Another 'What if' scenario (Chinese navigation)

[blackheart]

They could retreat southwards scorched-earth style.

Take all the population with them. Kill all those who refuse to leave! Burn all the cities, towns and fields! Poison all the wells and rivers! Let's see the Mongols try to use THAT now useless territory.

I don't think the Mongols woulda cared anyways, after all, they're nomadic. Of course, poisoning the rivers might work, but remembers rivers from north to south

 

[Uiler]

Actually the Chinese do have a colonising instinct. Take for example how S. China got colonised. Population pressures, desire to escape government control (and most importantly taxation!) led to Han Chinese settlers to push below the Yangtze river. They encountered non-Han Chinese tribes and of course this led to conflict. The Chinese villages in S. China were basically single family farming villages which I have heard described as armed fortified camps. With ruthless efficiency they gradually pushed the non-Han Chinese tribes out of the fertile river valleys into the hills and mountains. By the time the government became involved the non-Han Chinese tribe were officially known as "hill" tribes, even though originally they lived in the river valleys, small groups of armed Han Chinese farmers had done such a good job of driving them out of their former lands. When the Han dynasty fell there was a huge influx of settlers from the north. Then with the Three Kingdoms era, when the stalemate was reached, Sun Quan desperate for men for his army sent his troops off to force the rebel Han Chinese farmers back into the government fold (and ready to be taxed and conscripted). When this wasn't enough he sent his troops to forcibly bring the non-Han Chinese tribes down from the hills, chopped off the heads of the leaders, conscripted the men into his army and forced the women and families to live in Han Chinese villages as Han Chinese. Then later when the north got invaded by barbarians and Han Chinese empire continued in the south (the Eastern Jin), Han Chinese asssimilation and consolidation of rule continued.

With America etc. I could see a similar thing happening. In the 19th century it was common for private ships full of Chinese men looking to make their fortune to go overseas to "Gold Mountain" to work. They'd usually come back many years later to get married, etc. Combine the two - large groups of settler families wanting to escape the government (and taxation) putting together private expeditions to sale to the new world and basically doing what the Europeans did to the N. Americans. Government control would have come later.

I can definitely see the Chinese holding N. Americans in contempt. Looking at it from a Chinese POV:

- dark skin
- wears hair loose
- doesn't look Chinese at all
- don't wear proper clothes
- have religions full of "superstitious nonsense" with nature worship

Conclusion: uncivilised barbarians

Chinese always try to flood uninhabited (well not densely inhabited) land. We're not talking about government forced migration either. Population pressure is immense in China. There is also always a strong desire to escape taxation and conscription. Also, every time there is internal conflict, Chinese always try to flee to lands outside of government control (where most of the fighting is). For example the South's population was swelled by influxes of refugees from the north every time there was a civil conflict or everytime it got invaded by barbarians. Colonisation of N. America would have occurred, though driven by individual farmers at first, not the government.

I recall seeing the book in question and thinking "Are you kidding me?" because of previous speculation on whether or not the ancient Meso-Americans were astronauts (the "space aliens created the Nazca symbols" deal) or that the Phoenicians had reached South America prior to the Vikings. I also recently saw a program explaining how the Vinland Map was a forgery by an idealistic scholar (indulging in a personal fantasy, it seemed to say) who based his drawing on existing 15th-Century maps and written accounts of Viking colonies in Iceland and Greenland. However, there have been artefacts found in Newfoundland which indicated the presence of Vikings, so it's possible that a Chinese fleet of the Ming dynasty that was exploring the north Pacific could well have made a voyage along the west coast of North America. As China was already engaged in trade along the Silk Road and lacked the colonizing of European culture, there might not have been an incentive to establish permanent contact in the newly-explored regions. Chinese attitudes about outsiders (barbarians in their eyes, as well as in the eyes of any other empire) wouldn't have helped either.

I could imagine what the Chinese wou'd've thought of the inhabitants of Alaska (nothing of value other than sealskins and walrus tusks), the Pacific Northwest (lots of trees, but they're not using them for anything) and Meso-America (some gold, but a bad habit of terrorizing neighbors and butchering their captives in bizarre rituals). Given China's notorious reaction to outsiders (some of whose actions didn't help anything), I doubt that they'd want to interact with the Aztecs and Mayas at this point.

 

[Uiler]

If I remember correctly, the S. Song *lost* to the Mongolians in the end who used their control of N. China to put together a N. Chinese navy that could go toe to toe with the S. Song navy and a N. Chinese army with military engineers that could match Song military technology. Practically speaking, barbarians that control the north are dangerous as they have access to Chinese military technology, governmence and tactics which negates much of the advantages Han Chinese have over the "barbarians". Barbarians with Chinese technology, tactics and governmence are a massive military threat as history shows. There has never been a case in Chinese history where the Southern Chinese have been able to militarily defeat a N. China whether controlled by barbarians or Han Chinese or even successfully defend against them (in the long run). Staying in the south and defending against the north has always been a losing tactic in the end.

Three Kingdoms - Sun Quan (S.) lost to Wei (north). Wei was Han Chinese but it was still N. vs S.
E. Jin->S. Chinese Kingdoms - lost to the founder of the Sui. dynasty who was from the north.
S. Song - lost to the Mongolians controlling a N. Chinese army.
Ming - were driven south by the Manchurians. Tried to defend the south. Were eventually unable to hold the south either.

There's not much a success rate here defending the south against the north in the long term. Typical sequence of events:

- China gets fragmented into N. and S. due to internal conflict and/or barbarian invasions.
- N. easy to unite/conquer due to flat plains.
- N. reach Yangtze river, meet S. Chinese fleet, get owned.
- stew for a few decades to a century. Eventually get united and get a decent fleet together.
- manage to get over Yangtze.
- slowly beat their way south down the river valleys and mountain ranges. Takes a while as terrain is rough but eventually gain control of the South.

rinse, repeat.


Besides as others said, N. China is always considered the ancestral heartland of China. The South was until recently considered second best and less civilised. No Chinese emperor would abandon the north. Those who did are considered by history to be corrupt cowards.

So abandon the north to them Mongols! Go the way of the Southern Song and hide behind the Yangtze, but evolve into a naval superpower and be like Britain, only by a few centuries earlier.

With colonies all over Southeast Asia, the Middle East and East Africa, there would be enough money and resources to offset the loss of northern China. Do this one bit further and they'll reach the Americas. I think the armies will go crazy with the Aztecs and the Incas too, just like Cortez and Pizarro. Gold is gold for any materialistic civ with a military edge. Especially if they see the natives having common utensils made out of the stuff.

With further research, they might just get enough technology to eventually strike back at the Mongols. It might take a while, but is certainly better than hiding behind the Great Wall and stagnating.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

If I remember correctly, the S. Song *lost* to the Mongolians in the end who used their control of N. China to put together a N. Chinese navy that could go toe to toe with the S. Song navy and a N. Chinese army with military engineers that could match Song military technology. Practically speaking, barbarians that control the north are dangerous as they have access to Chinese military technology, governmence and tactics which negates much of the advantages Han Chinese have over the "barbarians". Barbarians with Chinese technology, tactics and governmence are a massive military threat as history shows. There has never been a case in Chinese history where the Southern Chinese have been able to militarily defeat a N. China controlled by barbarians or even successfully defend against them (in the long run). Staying in the south and defending against the north has always been a losing tactic in the end.

Not really. It was 'cause the powerful Song inland navy mutined and joined the Mongol side. After that, the Chinese cause was pretty much lost.

Conditions in the Song army were terrible - no good Chinese would join, unless under duress (convicts etc). The effect of generations of Neo-Confucianism.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

They could retreat southwards scorched-earth style.

Take all the population with them. Kill all those who refuse to leave! Burn all the cities, towns and fields! Poison all the wells and rivers! Let's see the Mongols try to use THAT now useless territory.

They would just march into Sichuan and roll eastwards from there. South of the Yangzi. Slow but effective.

That was the original Mongol war plan. They took Sichuan province first and then the city of Xiangyang - then marched down the Yangzi from the West. That advance stopped 'cause Mongke died and there was some succession dispute. Eventually Khubilai (Mongke's brother) seized control, and continued the advance.

 

[Uiler]

Not really. It was 'cause the powerful Song inland navy mutined and joined the Mongol side. After that, the Chinese cause was pretty much lost.

Conditions in the Song army were terrible - no good Chinese would join, unless under duress (convicts etc). The effect of generations of Neo-Confucianism.

Well, I think my point still holds. Whatever the reasons, S. China has a terrible all-losses record of successfully defending against the North (in the long run) and a terrible all-losses record of attacking the north. Sitting pretty and defending against the North just doesn't seem to work in the long run.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

I don't think the Mongols woulda cared anyways, after all, they're nomadic. Of course, poisoning the rivers might work, but remembers rivers from north to south

They wanted China for its wealth and produce - particularly its luxurious products. The better to bribe the steppe tribes and keep them quiet.

The Yuan could impose its control over the steppes was 'cause the emperor and khan understood how to manipulate the flow of Chinese luxuries to the tribes.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

Well, I think my point still holds. Whatever the reasons, S. China has a terrible all-losses record of successfully defending against the North (in the long run) and a terrible all-losses record of attacking the north. Sitting pretty and defending against the North just doesn't seem to work in the long run.

Remember the KMT's Northern Expedition in 1926-28?

 

[Uiler]

Not to mention that I'm sure the first time the Han Chinese tried that, the Mongolians would make sure to massacre every single Han Chinese they come across in their march south horribly and in extremly graphic and public ways.

Also, ordinary Han Chinese have quite fluid loyalties. They are *not* willing to die/starve for the empire unless forced to. If the Chinese government tried to fire all their fields and homes, you can bet they will turn against the Chinese government and join the Mongolians.

EDIT: it's even a military precipt from Zhuge Liang:

If you can win, win.
If you can't win, then fight.
If you can't fight, then run away.
If you can't run away, then surrender.
If you can't surrender, then die.

As you can see, dying is last on the list of priorities here

They would just march into Sichuan and roll eastwards from there. South of the Yangzi. Slow but effective.

That was the original Mongol war plan. They took Sichuan province first and then the city of Xiangyang - then marched down the Yangzi from the West. That advance stopped 'cause Mongke died and there was some succession dispute. Eventually Khubilai (Mongke's brother) seized control, and continued the advance.

 

[Dann]

I don't think the Mongols woulda cared anyways, after all, they're nomadic. Of course, poisoning the rivers might work, but remembers rivers from north to south

Nope. North of the Yangtze the rivers flow mostly west to east. Look at the map.

Anyway, the others have already shot the retreat idea down. No choice but to hunker down and defend the Great Wall then.

I still think though, that if managed correctly, the treasure fleets can be made to pay for themselves. The Ming Chinese navy just had to be more ruthless and greedy.