So I've been thinking more on some of the design philosophy behind civ choices in VII, and there definitely seems to be a sort of loose utilitarian "meritocracy" to how civs are being selected (which seems to be holding, for now, and might be expanded outward depending on how long development for the game goes on):
* Modern civs - clearly the defining regional powers (usually imperial or revolutionary) which defined modern political powers/peoples. Pretty clear-cut. Expect to see Canada, Australia, Sweden, Brazil, Ethiopia, Morocco, Poland-Lithuania, Austria-Hungary, Netherlands return if they aren't represented in exploration era.
* Exploration civs - seem to be going for good "transitionary" civs which represent good crossroads between cultures/polities, either by virtue of taking up a lot of territory (Spain, Mongolia, Majapahit, Normans, Abbasids, Songhai, Inca, Bulgaria), or being good pseudo-imperial "throughpoints" connecting larger, more nomadic regions (Hawaii, Shawnee, Iceland). Again, thoroughly expecting civs like the Franks/HRE, Byzantium, Portugal, Venice, Mapuche, Cree (or equivalent), and England/Scotland to return, alongside pretty obvious "sprawl" newcomers like Swahili/Kilwa, Almohad/Almoravid/Cordoba, Timurids/Sasanids/Seljuks, etc. etc.
* (note, for both of these, we are still seeing the introduction of some highly distinct cultural "isolates" like Nepal and Vietnam, so it's not a hard rule and we will totally see the occasional Georgia or Switzerland, just appears to be a general guiding principle, don't @ me).
What I find most interesting about this is the prioritizing of Antiquity era civs. There appears to be a similar balancing of "regional dominance" and "sociopolitical overlap" as in the prior eras, as well as a desire to give each region at least one solid starting point. As it stands, the base game gave most regions roughly one solid "wellfont" to start from: Europe (Rome), Middle East (Persia), Northern Africa (Egypt), Southern Africa (Aksum), India (Maurya), China (Han), Khmer (Southeast Asia), Latin America (Maya), and North America (Mississippian). Greece is the only civ to really prove an exception in the base game and fits the usual Euro/ME-bias of history games, and we are seeing some selective efforts to flesh out other regions with Carthage (West Africa/West Europe), Assyria, (Levant), Tonga (Polynesia), and prossibly Silla (Korea-Japan). But unlike the other eras, the timeline of what constitutes "antiquity" has been extremely liberally interpreted in order to satisfy this in some areas, the most obvious examples being Khmer and the Mississippians. What I think we can presume is that other regions will be given the same approach depending on when the idea of territorial expansion and coalescing into empires/federations occurred. What I think we can't presume yet is how late the devs are willing to push this idea for each region; 800 AD may not be the latest we will see.
Anyway, given the wonky balancing of reality and gamified functionality that uniquely plagues the Antiquity era, I am curious to see members' more consolidated efforts to figure out (a) what civs we really want/need in the game as good historical startpoints for exploration era civs, and (b) whether there are any compromises needed (blobbification, reconstruction, pivoting to later civs like the Maya or Khmer) to satisfy that.
Currently, I think very safe predictions for antiquity civs are:
* Norse - just overall the best antiquity representation of Northern Europe, despite being comparatively very late.
* Scythia - I've been balancing this against the Xiongnu and Huns (and Sogdia), and while I'm not precluding an upset or subsequent additions, I do think it's just the most solid first pick for an antiquity steppe civ given a balancing of overall territory and attested infrastructure.
That still leaves a few regions lacking solid "wellfonts." So here's some guesses, roughly in order of likelihood, of what I think we might see (curious to hear opinions):
Primary Wellfonts (Pretty Likely Priority Civs):
* Wagadu - I think Amina is pointing toward an inevitable "Malian" region which will likely give her a corresponding modern Hausa civ. Wagadu dates back to 700, is clearly the origin point for Mali and what resulted. While I anticipate getting at least one Bight of Benin civ like the Ashanti/Akan or Benin or Oyo, all of these are solidly exploration/modern era civs, and I don't think the Nok are well-attested enough.
* Slavs - I'm putting these above other European antiquity civs because I think they are so much easier to carve out than Western European options.
* Gaul/Celts (Halstatt/Picts/Scots) - It will be interesting to see what they do with this. I think it's extremely likely we will get both "British" and "Continental" Celtic civs, but (a) Firaxis could easily combine both into "Celts" again depending on what lens they are viewed through, and (b) they could easily pivot to Halstatt/La Tene for a continental option, again depending on the lens. Absent more information I am just going to peg Gaul as the first choice, but part of me would love to see them try a "Celtic" civ again that adequately demonstrates the commonality between them (and would sit alongside the Slavs and Goths so much better as much broader "proto-cultures").
* Tiwanaku - Something about the huge number of Peruvian/Bolivian antiquity IPs, along with the positioning of the Inca as the base game South American civ and the quick-to-return Simon Bolivar, gives me huge de la Vega vibes. Compared to Caral and Norte Chico, Tiwanaku feels like a much stronger option as a matter of attestation and overall regional influence. I am hoping we still get an antiquity Amazonian counterpart for western SA and the Caribbean, but this feels like perhaps the best starting "wellfont" for South America.
* Taino/Arawak/Kalinago - And yes, I am also getting vibes that, especially now that there be Pirates, the Caribbean will sorely want an antiquity civ. I think as a matter of infrastructure the Taino are the best option, but as a cultural blob these also constitute the best Amazonian antiquity civ. All of these run a bit late on the timeline, but there is evidence that they spread through the Caribbean quite a bit earlier than the structures we know of. If it is acceptable for the Tongan Empire, est. 950, to serve as an antiquity civ, I think the Taino/Arawak are acceptable in this region.
* Great Zimbabwe - This is probably the latest we will be seeing the antiquity age pushed, but I do think that a Zimbabwe -> Mutapa -> Zulu + Kongo path would make a lot of logical sense. The Zulu are extremely likely to reappear, and while the Swahili are fine as an exploration era connector, a true Shona path would be much, much cooler and representative of Southern Africa. Plus, I struggle to figure out how to get Kongo back into a three-era game (I would prefer if we managed to bring back as many players as possible), and the Mutapa and a Shona region are possibly the only good way to do that. Sorry, not sorry Boers, you should get the British Raj treatment here.
* Papua New Guinea - Presently Macronesia does not have a great start point. I'm placing these lower because Tonga is at least happening, but I still don't think that will be enough for Indonesia. And I think the choice of Tonga instead of Samoa signals, to me, a direct attempt not to consolidate Macronesia and Polynesia with a single wellfont civ. Papua could given that it would be decently satisfying blob/substitute for the Pama Nyungan and a startpoint for Australian civs. Also, when looking at "bigass islands/archies" that are getting representation: Japan, Philippines, Majapahit (Java), Maori (New Zealand), Hawaii; it totally tracks to make this island a civ as well. I don't think this precludes the Cham as a great start point for Vietnam/Philippines further down the line.
* Haida/Tlingit - I'm abstracting away from what is currently in the game a lot here, but there are three things I am expecting to happen. 1. Exploration era Iceland and modern IP Inuit is absolutely signalling a modern Inuit civ. 2. Canada is returning as a modern civ, get used to it. 3. I put odds of modern Anishinaabe being added at roughly 60/40 against the Lakota, as they make a lot of sense as completing "Tecumseh's Blue Wall of Friendship." Given all three of these very likely modern endpoints, the spread and historical migration of northern tribes, and how Polynesia seems very likely getting civs "representing" the Polynesian migration, I think civs up in the general "Aleutian" region are prime candidates for an antiquity startpoint. I would furthermore point out that cultures as far east as the Anishinaabe/Ojibwe inherited the totem pole culture.
* Pueblo/Hohokam - Both of these are antiquity IPs despite being nowhere near the Maya or Mississippians, compared to a lot of the other IPs being neighbors/precursors/successors to existing civs. Yeah you could argue map-filling, blah, blah, but Scandinavia didn't get that kind of treatment. I'm suspicious, and I could easily see some sort of "Western Desert/Plains" path being built out to complement the Mississippian legacy. Frankly, if we are filling out all of the other regions, I would expect this as a matter of fairness.
Double-Ups (Regions Where I Think We May Get Two Antiquity Civs)
* Babylon (Sumeria) - It's tradition at this point, and I think something representing Mesopotamia proper, Akkadian, and Iraq/Qatar is just likely in the antiquity era.
* Goths (Germans/Saxons) - I am not sure how they are going to figure the non-Norse, non-Roman, non-Celtic world out, but the Goths would be a great "antiquity Normans," being able to vicariously and most blobbedly represent antiquity Germany, the Gutes of Sweden, antiquity Balkans/Romania, and Visigothic/Ostrogothic Iberia/Italy under Theodoric. Very efficient, very mindful.
* Yayoi/Jomon/Heian - I think Silla works as a placeholder for a Japan starting point, but I do think, absent something really estoric like Silla being pushed to exploration and both Korea and Japan coming from a shared "Jin" civ, it would just be easier for the devs to make three eras for each.
* Huns/Xiongnu and Celts/Picts/Scots - already discussed above. Ireland/Scotland and Hungary seem quite likely for exploration era civs, could see these getting more specifically-tailored antiquity starts.
* Cham - If we get both antiquity Japan and Korea, then I just don't think Khmer works as a start point for Majapahit and Philippines (and to some extent, Vietnam). Thankfully, the Cham exist.
* Nabataea - I think if we get modern Mamluks, that will give a better indication as to whether we may get a full three-era Arabs path. Would be neat.
* Hittites - also pretty decent odds, I would put their odds between "antiquity Arabs" and "second Egypt."
* Nubia - Odds of returning are decent. I would say less likely than Scotland, but not bad. Although if Nabataea gets in I think its odds plummet, given that it is conceptually very squeezed out between Egypt, Nabataea, and Aksum.
* Numidia/Garamantes - Carthage and Wagadu would certainly suffice for West Africa, but neither really represents the Amazigh/Berber heritage well. Would not be surprised to see this eventually sliding in, especially if after Morocco we see an exploration era civ like Almoravid/Almohad appear.
* Tibet - I'm actually feeling antiquity Tibet, guys. I think this may be its chance. We already have Nepal as a modern Indochine bridge, and very good chances at exploration era Burma with all the Burmese IPs. Tibet -> Burma -> Nepal by itself would just make such a nice, elegant path. Putting it in antiquity probably wouldn't piss off China any more than Mongolia in exploration era. Probably.
* Olmec - I really don't need an Olmec civ, but since I'm mentioning double-ups, I think they stand the best chance of "borderline reconstruction nightmare" civs. Plus I feel like the base-game inclusion of Maya and Mexico might mean something, if not for the Olmec then for the Purepecha, or even Teotihuacan.
* Nok or Kanem-Bornu - Nok seem the obvious choice for a second West Africa antiquity civ, although I'm not sure how well attested it is. Could pivot to Kanem-Bornu, which is a pretty off-beat choice and could really go in any era by West African timelines. I could see it possibly working if I squint, especially as glue for pathways across the whole continent.
* Saami - I wouldn't put their odds as high, however I think if they appeared at all in VII they would be antiquity, as they would compete mechanically with a modern Inuit but have virtually no competition in antiquity. Would be a nice alternate start point for Iceland -> Inuit, and perhaps even could move into a theoretical Sakha/Yakut modern civ depending on how things go.
