I decided to settle on the Silver hill after some scouting revealed the 4th silver. This brought to mind the idea of working all 4 silver in range and settling my second city on the 5th somewhere outside to get a monopoly. The downside of this settle is early prospects are a bit poor, and after going mining first I decided that going for Pyramids was too risky and difficult; this was further encouraged by being relatively inland and separated from everyone but Assyria, which on Oval can mean massive barbarian waves. Mining first did let me sell my city tile Silver to Russia for 5 gpt, so there was that.
I go trapping after that thinking that the land seems likely to reveal deer nearby or maybe a bison and boost up the weakness of the immediate land; no dice there. Without a firm idea of my religious prospects yet I rush a shrine then start on a warrior, planning to use the free Progress worker as I build an army to defend myself with. I could've done something similar with Authority, and maybe should've, but didn't want to commit to that much long term fighting with a lot of the nearby lands empty.
After trapping was a bust I went for Pottery to get the Settler as I built another warrior. I also bought the desert next to both distant silver hoping I would grow into one naturally, but even though I got purple outlines for both it went for the floodplains instead. Quite sad.
I had thoughts of using my three warriors to tribute Quebec City, but before I could a tide of Brutes came from the West and I had to fight them off. they came in staggered but there were four altogether, with two warriors instead of three it could've been bad. As it was they win the fight handily as my Progress worker mines the silver. When they were finally done they did go up to Quebec City and extract 50 food in tribute, doing it injured because it wasn't too far to move.
After that tribute I have the plan of also tributing Singapore to bounce out a second settler very quickly, and scoot my Warriors to the northeast along with my pathfinder to help. This was kind of a risky move as there was a barb hut further east, north of the lake where I wanted to settle on the silver, and a Handaxe did eventually come down through the desert to harass my capital and threaten my settler's line. I had money to buy a 4th warrior though, so I kept him in line.
While all this was going on I ended up buying both silver hill tiles because they made my settler quicker and didn't look like they'd grow in time. My worker was also a little slower than I hoped and it was clear he'd only finish the last mine something like 5 turns after the settle. It wasn't ideal to get the monopoly turn 50 but I'd have to take it. I eventually settle my 2nd city on the silver tile on the north side of the lake. Just after pushing out the settler I did in fact tribute Singapore for 70 hammers and get a quick second settler out, aiming him northwest. Why northwest?
My pantheon came in about here, and I was a little stumped. Progress is notorious for losing religion, and I almost gave up on it and just took GoAC. However I noticed there was a huge concentration of tundra resources in the northwest, and that my capital and planned second city both had a little bit of tundra resources, 2 silver and 2 deer respectively. I decided given the strength of Stars and Sky it was enough, and my third settler quickly took the spot, just as Assyria took a spot nearby to the south.
As for tech I'd been paranoid about Assyria and wanted to defend myself quickly. I detoured for Calendar first to work the Perfume, but then went for Construction and wanted Mathematics after that, before Trade and Writing. And even as I was doing this, you can see me building my fifth and final warrior. All this military investment was useful at times but also a boondoggle at others.
I started out rewarded for my warriors as two new encampments appeared to either side; I ended up killing both, the western one with Assyrian help, and got a lot of quest GGP for it. Soon after this I built walls, but I didn't really have the population to staff them; my tiles were too good, and in my capital too food poor. The walls did have an effect though (maybe); everyone was looking to be my friend, including even Assyria right before I got to Mathematics.
Suddenly at peace with the world I wasn't sure what to do with my new ability to train bowmen and only built a single one. I also tried to build the Roman Forum at my third city which was becoming super powerful and could do it in only 8 turns, but it only half-finished before being taken. I figured that Stone+Marble had made it a decent culture process at least anyway. I tortured my poor capital to make a 3rd settler and sent him way East, to get another tundra concentration.
At this point I started to stabilize and build upward, making a food route to my capital with trade, claiming more and more tundra resources, and eventually scoring Writing and putting my Academy on the Desert Hill Sheep the second city has. At this time I was pretty unhappy, because Russia has the Luxury pantheon and was buying all my single luxes at exorbitant prices. I could've probably made more money if I'd been a little sharper on the ball but I still made quite a bit, though it did influence me to take the Happy policy 5th and wait on the Culture policy, due to already making culture hand over fist with both Stars and Sky and the Tundra monopoly.
I start building another settler for a 5th city in my desert city, but Russia is getting explorative to the south. I tell her not to settle near me when I see this and she agrees, but she still plants it right there, making plans to put a city in that area less attractive. The settler could go for the 3 deer + iron on the tundra to the north instead though, though the spot is kind of silly cramped by CS and has little future after those resources.
I end up popping the prophet on turn 95 in the powerful third city, I think there are four religions founded already so moving it would be super risky. With only 14 techs I'm probably behind there, but I'm due to finish Progress on turn 98 or so. The diplomatic situation is quite good, happy hugfest peace everywhere. Militarily I have my walls, 5 spears, and a bowman in the capital, feeling pretty safe at the moment though I should actually build some more bowmen soon.
Overall not a very exciting run, no wonders, no war, last religion, not super efficient or slick, just quietly OK with nice culture. I think someone will probably do better with Progress but this makes for a good insurance policy save I suppose.
EDIT: Taken beliefs:
Veneration (twice), Stupas, Asceticism; Divine Inheritance, Noble Truths, Hero Worship, Apostolic Tradition