I think if we beeline through Guilds that won't be the case.
It'll take even longer, and you won't have benefits from bureaucracy. Your strat is heavily dependent on GPs from Wonders, while Education path is dependent on GS from Libraries only. Like Mutineer has pointed out, you need 3 GS to get past Paper->Education, while actually researching something else, like MC->Machinery.
Means no Cover until 3rd promotion, which means you lose the benefit from both. While CRII is always on place.
When the AI effectively uses Cats against incoming stacks, plus uses its xbows and shock units before the incoming stack is in position to attack, that will change.
I wonder what would prevent them from using cats against Muskets. Cover (or an Elephant) against xbows, Shock against melee. Spear/Elephant against mounted.
BTW, if the AI have xbows already, how about attacking their xbow protected cities with Formation Muskets?
The difference between the Market under Bureaucracy and a Grocer with no Bureaucracy
... is actually 100 hammers with or 150 hammers without in the first place.
is 12.5% of commerce in the capitol * the gold slider, under a CE the gold slider is going to be, what, 20%? Say the capitol is making 50 commerce. That means we're talking a difference of 3 gold.

You guys are nitpicking.
Things change dramatically when you start conquering more cities, and lower the slider down to, say, 50%.
Now, 50*0.5 * 1.5 (bureaucracy) * 1.25 (Market) = 46.8,
while
50*0.5 * 1.25 (Grocer only) = 31.25.
See that 15+ gold difference? It means you can capture 2 or 3 more cities without lowering the slider further.
Having slider at 80% with bureaucracy also means you invest an additional 20 commerce (50*0.8*0.5) into research, which is also affected by the Library, totaling 25 more beakers. You tech faster, and a lot.
For University, again, presumably we're going to war, so you would be much better served to argue the production bonus to be used in churning out muskets
Just rush it while researching Gunpowder, that's it. In your example with 50 commerce at 80% plus bureaucracy it'll give additional 40*1.5*0.25 = 15 beakers after recovering from the whip. It will even speed up Gunpowder by a turn or two.
Also, the life is not going to stop after Gunpowder, and it's going to take a while to build an army anyway. The University will be working hard all this time.
rather than the dubious benefit of blowing pop/forests on a building that will provide a bonus to research that we won't get in time to help us reach our goal (gunpowder).
See above.