Chronicles of the Iroqi War

Near Provobomb
Vet. Warrior (4/4) vs Reg. Horseman (3/3) ; Horseman killed, warrior loses 2HP

This warrior attacked across a river and into a forest. Our horseman could have withdrawn. Odds were in our favor, right? Doesn't matter, the Iroqi won the battle. So I sent a 4hp spearman our from Provobomb to to kill the 2 hp warrior in the forest. The spearman wasn't even attacking across a river. Doesn't matter, the spearman inflicted only one hp damage then died. Oh, and the warrior got the hp back when he was promoted to elite.

I really wish someone on our team who understands the combat system would calculate the odds of the various battles we've had to see just how extrordinary the Iroqi's luck has been. It seems to me that the warrior hadonly a one in five chance of surviving the first battle and then a one in four chance of surviving the second. Doesn't that make it a one in twenty chance of him surviving both?

There is a little good news. I placed a horseman on Mount Carbonperoxides to ensure no Iroqi were in the Sacred Jungle and I moved our remaining southern forces back along the road one tile. Our settler made it to the spot where Fort Carbonperoxides is to be so we'll have that city next turn.

Oh, we also did away with the Hurrian camp on the east coast.

 
donsig said:
(..)I really wish someone on our team who understands the combat system would calculate the odds of the various battles we've had to see just how extrordinary the Iroqi's luck has been. It seems to me that the warrior hadonly a one in five chance of surviving the first battle and then a one in four chance of surviving the second.
Click to expand...
See here: http://www.civfanatics.com/civ3/combatcalc.php

Odds for: Vet. Warrior (4/4) vs Reg. Horseman (3/3) in forest; Horseman killed = 54.8%
Odds for: Vet spear (4/4) Vs (2/4) warrior in forest = 26.4%.

Not unusual, but I can see it's frustrating for you.
 
Rik Meleet said:
See here: http://www.civfanatics.com/civ3/combatcalc.php

Odds for: Vet. Warrior (4/4) vs Reg. Horseman (3/3) in forest; Horseman killed = 54.8%
Odds for: Vet spear (4/4) Vs (2/4) warrior in forest = 26.4%.

Not unusual, but I can see it's frustrating for you.
Click to expand...

OK, that's a different calculator than the one I found in the untilities forum. But it's horseman wins 54.4%. Maybe you didn't include the river bonus for the horseman? Still I see that's it's 50-50. But does this calculator take into account the possibility of the horse withdrawing? Yeah, it's frustrating when THREE Iroqi horeman ALL take ONE hp damage and withdraw in succession and our ONE horse doesn't!

Even with 50-50 on the first attack we had a 75% chance to win the second. Put them togetherand it's 0.5*0.25 for that warrior to survive. Running those two battles in succession eight times that warrior should die in seven of them.

Now look at the odds of mounted warriors attacking immortals in the grass and worse case is 80% chance the MW wins when it is vet and the immortal is regular. If the attacking MW has the same hp as the defending immortal (on grassland) then our guy has a one-third chance of living. Have a reg MW attack a vet immortal or put the immortla on a hill (like Cyrus was) and we have a 50-50 shot of surviving. Maybe that's been happening and they just have back-up units to finish the job. Haven't had time to go through the logs. Hopefully I will find time soon. In the mean time, yeah it's frustrating.
 
The calculater doesn't seem to take retreat/speed advantage into account. It shows however that if our unit had been a veteran, our chance of winning would rise from 55% to 79%. Quite an improvement.

The retreat chance is based on a comparison between experience levels of the units involved, and since we had a regular against a veteran our chance was not very good. I can't remember the exact formula, I'll try to find it.

edit: found it here.
That means our horseman had a 46% chance of retreating.
 
donsig (reg 3/3 horseman) vs. un-named Iroqi (2/5 warrior)
donsig KIA, un-named Iroqi loses 0 hp

donsig II (vet 4/4 horseman) vs. un-named Iroqi (2/5 warrior)
donsig II loses 3 hp, un-named Iroqi KIA

General Robi D,

It is with great sadness that I send this message to you. donsig, the Grand Vizeer of the Ironic and Iroqi Peoples, has perished in this foolish war. He died on the battlefield trying to ride on of the *infernal four-legged beasts* as he used to call them. His dying words were, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em!"

And so a new era is upon us. In an effort to continue donsig's effort to unite our peoples in peace I send along with this message the bones of an unknown Iroqi warrior killed in the same battle that took donsig from us. I am told this un-named countryman of yours killed many before he died. We are burying his war axe with donsig and send the Vizeer's sword to you to bury with your unknown soldier. Let this symbolize our mutual desire to end this wasteful conflict which drains both our strength and allows the green people to become more powerful than both of us.

We have send yet another peace proposal. Currency and the Iroqi women for 25 gold, 1 gold per turn and a fine technology of your choice.

signed
Your Humble Servant
donsig II

@ Rik Meleet: Yes, still frustrating. Our first horseman had an 83.8% chance of winning that battle. The second one had 92.4% and almost lost!
 
what are the plans for future city taking? i think we should concentrate solely on the war if we are going to win it. all cities to build immortals would be my plan.
 
Battlelog for turn 89

Mounted Warrior CR squad2 (4/4) vs Immortal Shahram (4/4), Shahram killed, CR2 loses 1HP

I am a bit worried about our western cities now since these mounted warriors rarely are seen traveling alone.

Oh, and yes, it's still frustrating. That vet immortal was in a forest. Didn't use the combat calculator but their odds of winning each round were less than 3 to 2 yet they win 4 out of five rounds, killing our guy while losing only 1 hp. :mad:
 
In the desert south of the Sacred Jungle:

Nasim (3/3 reg horseman) attcked DS squad 2 (4/4 vet mounted warrior)
Nasim, KIA
DS squad 2, lost 3 hp

Nasim was at the terminus of the military road. He's been moving one toile south every turn to scout things out. This turn he found a single mounted warrior. Odds seemed in our favor (2 to 1), but of course, we lost the battle. :rolleyes:

Our military advisor says there are Anasazi tribes near Fort Carbon Peroxides. We've fanned out in search of them.

 
donsig II (4/4 horseman) attacked DS squad 5 (1/4 mounted warrior)
donsig II lost 0 hp, DS squad 5 KIA

Here's the current screen shot:



NW of donsig II is DS squad 4.
SW of donsig II is WC squad 4.
GS squad 7 and an un-named warrior are on Lookout Mountain.
 
ok i didnt i just believed we had bad luck before, but a horseman loosing to a warrior and just these whole battle results are f***ed up, we need to stop attacking because all these victories are just making the iroqi more confidant.
 
donsig II killed the mounted warrior but is now within range of many full strength mounted warriors.
 
ooooo ok, sorry for my outburst then :) it had been a long day at work. still shouldnt have reacted like that.
 
Battlelog for turn 94
Mounted Warrior GS squad5 (4/4) vs. Horseman donsig II (4/4) ; donsig II killed, GS5 loses 0HP
Mounted Warrior DS squad4 (4/4) vs. Immortal Artaxerxes (3/3) ; Artaxerxes killed, DS4 loses 1HP
 
Here's the situation after Gorab's successful attack. Right after this was taken he moved up one tile along the military road.

 
I have had some unofficial peace talks with General Robi D. They have failed. I have not been able to look at the save yet but I have been informed by the General that there are nine Iroqi units within our borders. These nine units represent 55% of their offensive potential. The General is authorized to accept peace once these units complete their missions. I will look at the save and post the ominous pictures in a couple hours.
 
donsig said:
I have had some unofficial peace talks with General Robi D. They have failed. I have not been able to look at the save yet but I have been informed by the General that there are nine Iroqi units within our borders. These nine units represent 55% of their offensive potential. The General is authorized to accept peace once these units complete their missions. I will look at the save and post the ominous pictures in a couple hours.
Click to expand...
Doesnt sound too good, we may have to disband the city.
 
Our attack on the elite mounted warrior was entirely successful! Ardeshir killed it without suffering any damage. Fort Carbonperoxides is still in danger. I halted food production in the city so it won't grow and changed over to walls. If the Iroqi attack it it should autoraze.

 
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