Some comments on recent posts...
padlock makes a very good point on the 'intuitiveness' of the attack/defense values, in that now a 2 unit hitting a 4 unit will lose about twice as many hp's as it gives. One had to make a mental adjustment for terrain, but you didn't need a computer to know what your chances were. The loss of intuitiveness is a good point, and not an insignificant problem.
Masquerouge... I'm just not seeing the yelling and screaming you're talking about. Knowledgeable folks are making the effort to make sure that people understand the magnitude/impact of the proposed new combat system. People are expressing 'concern' here much more than ranting -- this thread is surprisingly civil compared to many other bulletin boards I've seen
Ebomb808 makes a point I agree with that strategy won't go away and that new strats will evolve. But the comments on higher diff players seem a bit off. Cats, cannons, city walls, bombing and terrain are not at all "forgotten" elements, they're the bread and butter of the advanced player. Marching 40 swords at an enemy? On Deity with the number of cities you can found before the AI has grabbed everything in sight you'll never see this many, or by the time you did the AI would have muskets. Combat and warfare by top players on highest difficulty level is
never a matter of superior numbers! Nor would such a player ever wait until his expected foe got to Nationalism to attack with Knights. This is a strawman. The need for tech and diplomacy will not increase, rather the number of valid options other than beeline mil tradition will decrease. Finally, if the best players around are the ones showing concern over a change, I would be prone to listen. (Although again, their tone has not been one I would characterize as 'loud complaining') Read one of the succession games played on deity lvl and you'll see the strategy and finessed us is far more important than overwhelming numbers. The issue we're raising is that such skill will not be enough when faced a technologically superior foe, but we'll need to increase our production by a factor of about 3 to be able to make the same gains -- and I'll tell you, that factor of 3 is just not there to be had.
The very fact that there are dozens of players saying this change is "no big deal" shows precisely why some of us are making the effort to demonstrate mathematically the impact of the changes. An excellent programmer is one who understands the desired effect well, writes logical code, tests, and has a keen eye for game balance. Most however don't have a PhD level grasp of statistics, nor do they have the time to play a wide assortment of diety level games to fully know the full impact of proposed changes. (That combination of skill and interest is for nutcases

)
Perhaps the suggestion of leaving it an option for changing would be good. Mike B is our INI friend --
perhaps ROLLSTOAVG could be an option in the INI file? Default it as you wish, but setting it to 1 gives old-style combat, =4 gives the steeper combat described (and heck, setting it to 100 gives nearly 100% deterministic outcomes for the few people asking for that). In fact, is there any reason why for the sake of the beta you couldn't do that, even if it were removed from the final patch? That way the more rabid elements of the fanbase could do some rather extensive testing
I'll finish by reiterating my thanks to Firaxis for both their committment to a quality game
and for making the effort to keep the gaming community informed. I look forward to the beta with whatever changes it has/doesn't have
Charis