I agree that it seems too luckbased atm.
First of all its a shame that just having 1 city with a bunch of puppets is(seems) like the approach. I hope they will make the culture penalty for getting more than 1 city, smaller.
Second of all: Cultured CS simply have too much of an impact atm. If you are doing a game with only 2-3 cultured CS there is no way you will be able to break the 1600 barrier. On the other hand if you have all 8 cultured CSs in your game, you are well on the way to get a good finish date.
Id say, for a cultured victory it should actually be allowed to play with the max amount of CSs. This way each game will have 8 cultured CSs, and therefore be much less luckbased.
I totally agree with this actually. Just for the record, I have a game slated for a turn 219 finish (1545 AD), but I technically haven't finished it yet. I'm only stating this right now because I might not finish it for a while, and I'd feel dirty if I won but didn't submit until near the end of the challenge. Turn 206, I have Utopia Project unlocked and it'll take me 13 turns to finish it. Saved it there, and will finish later if it's my best. I thought my start wasn't the greatest, but I decided to keep playing because it was an interesting game. Used Horseman to conquer a nearby Civ and then started getting ridiculously lucky. First GP from a CS was a Great Engineer, used to rush Sistine Chapel. Finished Astronomy a little after turn 100, and when I sent out all my Horseman to find CS, I ended up finding EIGHT cultural City States. Not only that, but the other CIVS I found had tonnes of gold too, which is something that I don't normally find. On Prince, they're usually starved on gold I find, so by around turn ~135, I was allied with all 8 cities states, and had 3 research agreements to boost my science up. Had biology as well, so I was getting 160 CpT from just the city states, compared to the piddly 60 I was getting from my cities.
Needless to say, I had a weak start -- I remember getting very few ruins, which is why I felt slow, but I got lucky that Germany built to 3 cities quickly, and Washington built a city between Germany and I, so I managed to get 5 cities real quickly once I had horsemen. I use the 2-5-2 in policies that most people here are using before I save up for Cristo. I'm surprised so many people talk about not getting the 2 in Tradition. I'm not sure how people can play without the +33% Wonder Construction, or not having Marble to start. My opening build for the first 100 turns is something like Scout/Worker/Warrior/StoneHenge/Library(bought)/National College/Great Library/Oracle/Horsemanx3/ That's 4 wonders in there probably taking about 50 turns, so not only does it save you turns, it also makes sure you don't throw away a monster start where you pop 6 ruins because you got beat to the GL or Oracle.
Edit -- I also discovered a neat Research Agreement trick, which may or may not be known, or I could even be wrong, for that matter. Not an exploit, like where you declare war (getting fixed in next patch), to get the Research Agreement immediately, but it looks like Research Agreements tend to favour techs that you haven't put beakers into. Which kinda makes sense, because if you're one turn away from researching X, and the RA gives it to you, you'd be pretty pissed. On the other hand, this allows for some creative ways to shave off turns on your research. Let's say the only things you can research are Chivalry (cheap), Printing Press (medium), Chemistry (good) and Metallurgy (useless), and your RA finishes after 3 turns. You can put one turn each into Chivalry, Printing Press, and Metallurgy, and then the RA will give you Chemistry. In this example, you only save a few turns, but if this trick indeed works, you might be able to get an early RA to give you a tech you're intending to beeline.