I'll continue with my ad hoc reactions to things in your treatise that resonate with my own sense of what makes for a good 4x game.
You're quoting Meier from a talk he gave on the psychological underpinnings of the appeal of Civ games. He had initially thought that it would be fun for players to experience a major set-back and bounce back from it; the bounceback would be "more glorious and more dread than from no fall," as Moloch puts it in Paradise Lost.
He found out that players didn't like that, and so he shifted to a model where there is no "rise and fall" but only "rise, rise and more rise."
I think, and I have said recently in another thread, that there's a second advantage to the "rise, rise and more rise" model, and that has to do with the onboarding of new players. Civ is already complex enough that, when a new player starts to pick it up, that player doesn't need to be told, a third of the way through his or her first game, "now you're going to start losing things, and the challenge is to lose as little as possible." It would be like Monopoly hitting a stage where all of your hotels start getting sold off and you need to shift the strategies you'd been using earlier in the game and just try to minimize how many of them get sold off. If that was a dynamic in Monopoly, nobody would ever have learned the game. They'd throw up their hands in frustration and say "I thought I was mastering how this thing goes and now suddenly those plans are all out the window."
I have a larger point as well. This dimension of you OP, and the talk by Sid Meier on which it is based, makes me think it's time to retire the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 mantra (since that is this-next-game-to-the-previous) and instead work out a stable core of features that will be true of any good 4x (these psychological underpinnings) and say "every new iteration has all of those, and then goes on to differentiate itself from its predecessor in some measure).