But if it's a loaded die you might roll 6 100% of the time. Yes, your statement is true since you said "fair die." I agree with your point though. If we know what the odds are in civ3 combat it doesn't matter what the previous results are (except in the sense that a unit's strength or experience may be affected by previous combat). For some events we don't know what the probability is, and previous results do affect it. I couldn't understand why I had 200 elite victories without generating an leader until I discovered that all my elites had already created leaders and the odds were then 0%. (Since then firaxis put a * by such elite units in patch 1.21f).