Combat Odds Calculator

[Defiant47]

Greetings

Is there any kind of program out there that would calculate combat odds? I want to give arbitrary ratios and see the combat odds.

For example:

1:1 is 50%
2:1 is... I don't know
4.5 to 2 is... I don't know

PS: I know that it is possible to check combat odds (but I'm not willing to write down every situation so I have a chart... I'd prefer the original algorithm).

UPDATE: Calculator found: http://c4combat.narod.ru/c4c.htm

You can be more specific but for a pure ratio, just put the numbers in the top two boxes (i.e. for a ratio of 2:1, put 2 in one and 1 in the other).

 

[sp00n]

1 to 1 is 1 out of 2, so 50%.
2 to 1 is 2 out of 3, so 67%.
4.5 to 2 is 4.5 out of 6.5, so 4.5/6.5 = 69%.

 

[MrCynical]

@sp00n: The combat is nowhere near that simplistic in Civ 4. A relatively small difference in relative strengths corresponds to a much larger difference in the relative odds of winning. While I haven't checked the exact figures 4.5 to 2 would give odds of winning of well in excess of 90% to the stronger unit.

@Defiant47: This was originally written for Civ 4 v1.61, and I know that there hae been changes to how combat (with damaged units at least) works with Warlords. It should give a starting point though.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=184254

 

[Defiant47]

@sp00n: The combat is nowhere near that simplistic in Civ 4. A relatively small difference in relative strengths corresponds to a much larger difference in the relative odds of winning. While I haven't checked the exact figures 4.5 to 2 would give odds of winning of well in excess of 90% to the stronger unit.

@Defiant47: This was originally written for Civ 4 v1.61, and I know that there hae been changes to how combat (with damaged units at least) works with Warlords. It should give a starting point though.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=184254

Thanks, but in regards to my question, that says the same thing sp00n says...

1 to 1 is 1 out of 2, so 50%.
2 to 1 is 2 out of 3, so 67%.
4.5 to 2 is 4.5 out of 6.5, so 4.5/6.5 = 69%.

If that were true, spearmen could beat tanks 1 out of 6 times.

4 / (20+4) = 4/24 = 16.6%

 

[Elandal]

That'd be the odds for a single combat round. If the spear would win the round (1/6 afterall), it'd cause a bit of damage to the tank, but OTOH if the tank would win, it'd cause lots of damage. The tank needs probably three rounds to kill the spear, while the spear needs maybe ten rounds.

Checked the War Academy article Combat Explained?


If I just need a quick idea of the combat odds, I look at the units, their promotions, bonuses and penalties, come up with the adjusted strengths of the units, then decide that anything 2:1 or better is somewhere in the 99% range, 1:1 is even, and between them is where the combat is meaningful

 

[Defiant47]

Aha, found it, in Combat Explained. I'll update the original post so that anyone searching for such a thing will discover it immediately.

 

[CivDude86]

You have to look out for those jump points. Just having .1 strength advantage means you need to win 4 rounds and they have to win 6.

 

[Elandal]

No, .1 strength advantage doesn't mean you can do with 4 rounds. It does mean the opponent needs 6 rounds though. To get damage per hit to at least 25 (so to kill with four hits) you need 60% strength advantage. That's 95% or so odds already then.

 

[Bushface]

A hypothetical question. Suppose you have a single defender in a city which gives no defence bonus whatsoever, but your defender has Garrison 1. On an adjacent no-extra-defence tile is a hostile unit which has City Raider 1. Both units have the same strength. Should you attack, or wait to be attacked ?
Answer: it doesn't matter, you'll lose either way because the RNG hates all humans.

 

[Defiant47]

A hypothetical question. Suppose you have a single defender in a city which gives no defence bonus whatsoever, but your defender has Garrison 1. On an adjacent no-extra-defence tile is a hostile unit which has City Raider 1. Both units have the same strength. Should you attack, or wait to be attacked ?
Answer: it doesn't matter, you'll lose either way because the RNG hates all humans.

If both attack and defense are exactly the same like in your case, attack since you get more XP.

 

[Bushface]

No you won't. A dead unit gains no XP. Re-read the last line of my earlier post.

 

[Defiant47]

No you won't. A dead unit gains no XP. Re-read the last line of my earlier post.

But a dead unit gains no XP either! So it's better to attack.

 

[Bushface]

I can't remember which General said "To defend is impossible, to retreat unthinkable. I attack !"
Why isn't this one of the sayings in Civ4 ?

 

[Defiant47]

I can't remember which General said "To defend is impossible, to retreat unthinkable. I attack !"
Why isn't this one of the sayings in Civ4 ?

Hilarious

 

[rd13]

sorry for resurrecting an old thread, but the http://c4combat.narod.ru/c4c.htm is not available any more - did someone still have it or is there another location where it could be used?