Commerce TC3 Discussion: Bronze Burial

[Octavian X]

This part turnchat, our pair of exploring units met a new pair of neighbors: William of the Netherlands, and Mao of the Chinese.

Of course, this means a cornucopia of trading options has presented itself.

[u][b][i]Office of Commerce[/i][/b][/u]
[size=1]Report Compiled for 2900 B.C. by Director Octavian X[/size]

[b][i]Potential Deals[/i][/b]
[b][u]We Want...				We offer...         [/u][/b]
[b]China[/b]
Bronze Working, 30 gold				Alphabet
Masonry						Alphabet, 5gpt, 112g
Warrior Code					Alphabet, 1gpt, 107g

[b]The Netherlands[/b]
Ceremonial Burial				1gpt, 98g
Bronze Working					4gpt, 90g

[b]India[/b]
Ceremonial Burial				108g
Bronze Working					3gpt, 97g

[i][b]Note:[/b] The first column represents what our rival would
offer, and the second isour offer.  Comma denote areas where
multiple items are needed for one deal, while slashes denote that
several items would garner the same result from our prospective
trading partners.[/i]

I'm tempted by the India offer for Bronze Working (for defensive purposes), as well as the purchase of Masonry from China (before they buy Alphabet from someone else).

As a note, we're 29 turns away from finishing writing. We have 114g in the bank, and make 9gpt.

 

[Ashburnham]

Well, we should certainly ignore both of the Netherlands offers. If it's a choice between Bronze Working and Masonry, I'm inclined to go for the latter.

Btw, excellent chart, Octavian.

 

[Provolution]

China Bronzeworking and 30 G for Alphabet
India Ceremonial Burial for 108 Gold

This will leave us the needed temple and spearmen advances, and bring us closer to iron.
We also save a total of 36 Gold and may maintain our research level.

 

[DaveShack]

I would like to see a projection of what we can get for masonry or warrior code. Impossible to tell for sure of course, but suppose we could get both bronze working and ceremonial burial (one each from Netherlands and India) for one of these techs which China currently has a monopoly on, then we're at tech parity already.

 

[Octavian X]

Presumably, we could get a lot for Masonry, especially given the high price China wants. Of course, we'll also lose a bunch of gold after the settler is built - 5gpt may not be that affordable. We wouldn't get nearly as much from Warrior Code. Of course, both would be devalued the moment we got our hands on them.

 

[TimBentley]

Certainly sell alphabet to China. Too late to think more.

 

[mad-bax]

I would be against buying monopoly techs at this time. You buy them and of course their value drops since they are no longer monopoly techs, and the cost of researching them reduces. You then trade them around, thus fuelling tech rates, and the overall tech rate increases. For the moment we want all the civs researching techs at full cost IMHO.

I would be in favour of a twofer however, if it met strategic aims. We could buy CB from India and then sell CB and Alpha to China for Masonry. We could then sell Masonry to India and get our Gold back, and to the Netherlands for Bronze Working.

We would be shy of Warrior Code, but could buy it if important, but this trade will allow us to see who has Iron working when we complete Writing.

As a general rule I would maximise gpt payments, since 5gpt in 20 turns time is not worth as much as 5gpt now. In this case though I would favour buying CB from India for cash on the barrelhead since it is the only way to get the gold back. Further, we may be well advised to draw down the treasury for a while until the danger of demands from the AI has been reduced. To this end it may be worthwhile buying WC from China as soon as another tech becomes available.

Note that in my view it is not worthwhile trying to keep a neighbouring Civ backward by denying them a tech since they may well demand it. Better in fact to manufacture a method of giving them enough cash and then selling. The conundrum we have is a little discussed problem with minimum research runs at higher difficulty levels.

 

[YNCS]

China Bronzeworking and 30 G for Alphabet
India Ceremonial Burial for 108 Gold

I agree. We could then try to trade CB to China.

 

[classical_hero]

I would be against buying monopoly techs at this time. You buy them and of course their value drops since they are no longer monopoly techs, and the cost of researching them reduces. You then trade them around, thus fuelling tech rates, and the overall tech rate increases. For the moment we want all the civs researching techs at full cost IMHO.

I would be in favour of a twofer however, if it met strategic aims. We could buy CB from India and then sell CB and Alpha to China for Masonry. We could then sell Masonry to India and get our Gold back, and to the Netherlands for Bronze Working.

We would be shy of Warrior Code, but could buy it if important, but this trade will allow us to see who has Iron working when we complete Writing.

As a general rule I would maximise gpt payments, since 5gpt in 20 turns time is not worth as much as 5gpt now. In this case though I would favour buying CB from India for cash on the barrelhead since it is the only way to get the gold back. Further, we may be well advised to draw down the treasury for a while until the danger of demands from the AI has been reduced. To this end it may be worthwhile buying WC from China as soon as another tech becomes available.

Note that in my view it is not worthwhile trying to keep a neighbouring Civ backward by denying them a tech since they may well demand it. Better in fact to manufacture a method of giving them enough cash and then selling. The conundrum we have is a little discussed problem with minimum research runs at higher difficulty levels.

While what you propose seems to be complicated, I think it is the best option that we should take.

 

[Provolution]

I second Mad Bax and CH here fully. Mad Bax method is the most lucrative.

 

[YNCS]

I would be in favour of a twofer however, if it met strategic aims. We could buy CB from India and then sell CB and Alpha to China for Masonry. We could then sell Masonry to India and get our Gold back, and to the Netherlands for Bronze Working.

On further consideration, I think mad-bax's suggestion will give us the most favorable deal.

 

[TimBentley]

It appears masonry and warrior code would be monopolies to India and Netherlands. I think mad-bax's suggestion sounds good.

 

[ravensfire]

Gotta agree (along with the others) with mad-bax's suggestion.

I'll also draw out a point he made - demands for our technology. We're playing at a level where we will get demands from stronger nations. Just something to keep in mind ...

-- Ravensfire

 

[GenMarshall]

We should make an attempt to trade with China to obtain the knowlage of Bronze Working so that we can build spearmen to protect our cities

 

[Stuck_as_a_Mac]

Eazy now, silly man. Half the fun is to plan the plan. All good things come to those who can.

WAIT.

I say we dont sell anything yet. I still say we're on an 80% pangea. If this is true, we're bound to meet more people in the next five turns. Who knows when we can grab onto a tech and procede to trade it around, to our advantage, in short succession. Myself and the great Stephen Sondheim (now working for Oxford) say wait.
So does Miss. Lovet, but she's more likely to bake you into a pie then we are.

SaaM

 

[Octavian X]

I like mad-bax's plan, now that he brings it up.

Granted, we may meet some more people in the next five turns. Then again, we may not. Each passing turn increases the chance that our single (current) monopoly tech, alphabet, will be devalued because some other nation has acquired it. That's not a risk worth taking.

 

[DaveShack]

I like mad-bax's plan, now that he brings it up.

Granted, we may meet some more people in the next five turns. Then again, we may not. Each passing turn increases the chance that our single (current) monopoly tech, alphabet, will be devalued because some other nation has acquired it. That's not a risk worth taking.

Umm, it's not even a monopoly, since India and Netherlands already have it. As soon as China and Netherlands meet, our opportunity to be the middleman goes away.

 

[Octavian X]

Well... you know what I meant. Irregardless, China is bound to meet someone we know soon.

 

[mad-bax]

If you look at what China know then it is fairly clear that they don't have contact with India or Netherlands, but do hav contact with at least two other Civs. Beginning to look like a pangea no?

Any road up... We can sell Alpha to China at monopoly prices you would think...except that if you look at the numbers we can't. Aha! they must be researching it. Every turn will therefore decrease its value. When China meet one of "our" civs in the next few turns we lose the opportunity. When we get writing - and if we get it as a monopoly, we will waste it in trading for the first tier techs. By the time we can see 2nd and 3rd tier techs it will be worthless. Waiting would be a bad thing.

As far as exploration is concerned... We have to walk our warrior a long way to explore the region to the north of the Chinese, and our curragh won't be going there any time soon. We can only meet new civs if they are located to the east of China. This might be fine, but I just thought I would point out that the rate at which we will make contacts will decrease.

We need the first tier techs done and dusted so we can get full value for writing. Not that although min research is 50 turns, because contact trading is deferred to PP we should be able to get a lot for it in trade since the AI won't have all contacts, even if this is a pangea.