Current Middle East situation

[innonimatu]

There have been a lot of threads about the Middle East here, recently. But they discuss isolated events, and usually the discussion leads nowhere. I think a global discussion about the region would be useful.

The interests of all the players in this drama should be the starting point of any discussion. But just considering the main ones will be useful: the governments of (or factions within) the US, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan, India, China, Britain, France, Russia.

What do people in this forum think are the goals and strategy of these governments, regarding the Middle East situation? In a few lines.

 

[Che Guava]

Priority one: come up with a lasting solution the palestine problem. It's the biggest mar on the whole situation, and a convinient excuse for all sorts of atrocious behaviour on all sides.

 

[innonimatu]

Sorry, I should have been cleared. I was thinking about people writing a short text with their views about the strategy of one of these governments (or several short pieces about several governments).

I might as well start:

China: might get involved due to its fear of encirclement and dependence of Middle East oil. China will continue to support Pakistan to keep India in check, and would like to support Iran to guarantee access to energy resources outside the control of its main strategic competitor (the US). However the Chinese are practical enough to avoid attempting to support Iran in the event of a war– it’s too far and offers too little to China for the risk. China is confident that time is working for her, and interested in building up its power quietly and discreetly – for some more years at least.

Syria: an odd state where national interest means maintaining the current government in power. The government needs not fear being attacked by its neighbors, as none of them wish another Iraq next door. The main threat is popular dissatisfaction, and to keep it in check the government must avoid further economical hardships, maintain influence in Lebanon (economically important to Syria), and if possible score some political victories in the issue of the Golan Heights. It would like to negotiate a permanent peace treaty and normal relations with Israel, but cannot relinquish the claim on that territory. Syria can probably accommodate to any of the possible outcomes in Iraq, which gives some importance to its diplomacy.

Russia: not particularly interested in the Middle East. The Russian government would like to see US influence weakened, but is more concerned with the former USSR space and does not want to gamble on the Middle East. Not yet. Continued instability benefits Russia by increasing energy prices. The possibility of American influence falling due to imperial overexpansion will always be welcome by russians.