Depopulation: A Threat to Civilization or Just a Phase?

[Yeekim]

but the point is that "we could all have a cheap/easy life" is a hypothetical

Ask someone born in 1700. They'll say we are all having an unimaginably easy life.

 

[Farm Boy]

The flour for the daily bread taking less than a minute to earn at minimum wage would probably be noticeable to them. Like we already live in Cockaigne, many of us.

 

[Narz]

Ask someone born in 1700. They'll say we are all having an unimaginably easy life.

Yeah I just finished a biography of Benjamin Franklin, he lost a child as did almost everyone who had more than two back then.

Compared to 30-40 years ago though people are having to work harder for less.

 

[Farm Boy]

There's huge efficiency increases that come with very local sharing. Roommates, spouses, cooking, laundry, picking people up from the train. The social breakdown of community groups will degrade a lot of ground level interactions and efficiencies in the lived life.

I'd worry more about control of productive resources. Once a live stock of something doesn't provide anything useful, well, pigs provide one thing that is useful.

 

[Yeekim]

Compared to 30-40 years ago though people are having to work harder for less.

I can't say about over there, but that is certainly not true for over here.

Is there data showing people working for more hours per week, for example?

I also suspect that people tend to ignore costs for a lot of stuff they take for granted today that did simply not exist 40 years ago. Like smartphones and Netflix subscriptions.

 

[Narz]

I can't say about over there, but that is certainly not true for over here.

Is there data showing people working for more hours per week, for example?

I also suspect that people tend to ignore costs for a lot of stuff they take for granted today that did simply not exist 40 years ago. Like smartphones and Netflix subscriptions.

I bet Samson has some graphs.

This guy has a few #'s (I'm too lazy to screenshot)

Notably in 1980s average house was like 1.5x year average salary now it's like 15x

 

[Moriarte]

But I understand that with home ownership impossible for so many why so many people would be reluctant to reproduce

I am not sure the fall in interest in having families and lots of kids is entirely to do with economics, including home ownership and the rest of it. If that was the case, countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan being one of the strongest economies per capita, who's citizens have abundant everything, would be in a constant state of population boom. Family is a natural response of human race to adversity of mother nature. And when the most dangerous facets of adversity are dealt with, the reason for maintaining strong family disappears. The need for kids too. Some blame the absence of religion, but I feel many people simply don't care anymore. We are a very different bunch of individualists compared to, say, 100 years ago.


I do agree with you that economics of having a family right now is very unfavourable. House ownership is unaffordable, food prices skyrocketed since COVID, utility bills, kids clothes, etc. But that's not the full story. People used to have population booms in countries torn apart by war. Having limited housing, no reliable food and water sources and a pillaged economy. But after they have rebuilt the country, population growth eased.

 

[Samson]

I am not sure the fall in interest in having families and lots of kids is entirely to do with economics, including home ownership and the rest of it. If that was the case, countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan being one of the strongest economies per capita, who's citizens have abundant everything, would be in a constant state of population boom.

The thing is that the economics of children is not a simple gdp/capita = fertility. This paper says South Korea has a socioeconomic status imbalance, such that the poorer people have fewer children later. If the economics of the country make it hard for early career people, particularly women, to have a job while making a family then only the rich will have enough children, and there are not enough rich people.

 

[Narz]

We are a very different bunch of individualists compared to, say, 100 years ago.

Society is lonelier and being a parent is lonelier still.

I don't glorify the 80s and 90s, I don't think they were great times to be a kid (at least not in my family) but there was more of a sense of shared society. Now it feels more like everyone is in their own little bubble worlds.

There's also a general unease and despair now that didn't exist then.

I can't quantify it or explain it very well but it's reflected in skyrocketing anxiety and polarization levels even tho society is, on paper, safer than it was 30 years ago.

Even the fear of nuclear destruction was black and white. It happens or it doesn't and if it doesn't we're fine.

Now there are dozens of looming crises and less hope that we can unitedly defeat them... or even agree on what these crises are (this thread an example, environmentalists warn of too much human consumption whereas nationalists warn of too few humans and shrinking consumption).

If we can't even agree on what our problems are (with 150 million in the US for instance in almost direct opposition on many issues to the other 150 million) it's hard to be very hopeful for the future.

And this is WITH direct access to information at our fingertips and BEFORE deep fake trickery runs totally out of control.

Not trying to be totally negative (if only for my own peace of mind) but I can understand why very few can boast Steven Pinker style optimism at this time.

Optimism is the most important thing if you're having a family. Even better to be better recovering from a brutal war than fearing you're heading into one.

 

[Farm Boy]

Why would you be hopeful when your agency is removed bit by bit? People can tell when they aren't doing anything they care about and are largely unnecessary. Especially if "population is the problem." Especially if society tells you this, constantly. That things would all be going better if you'd never been here to worry about.

With an in-group, you can shrug that off easier.

Alone?

 

[Remorseless1]

Overpopulation is actually a threat to civilization, not to mention to the Earth's geosphere. More people means ore consumption of food, which requires more energy to grow, process, and deliver. Currently, the vast amount of energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And with modern countries having better economy, the energy is used not just for survival but also for recreational activities, such as sporting events. Even if the sport is green, such as Euro football, teams travel to different venues, fans travel to sport facilities, and stadiums et al, require more energy to satisfy fans' need for nachos and beer and merchandise sales. Stadiums are getting bigger -- the US's college football stadiums now have capacities closing in on 100,000 fans. More people means greater capacities for transport, especially individual vehicles such as cars and motorcycles.

A final point: more people means more garbage in the oceans, lakes, and rivers.

Whatever bullfeathers economists and business people say, increasing the number of humans on the planet further accelerates climate change.

 

[REDY]

Growth is development. Whatever isn’t growing is dying.
It’s a universal philosophy that applies to nature, society, and ideas.
I may not be the best example, with no family, two remote jobs, four residences, and spending most of my time on the computer.
I guess this is a sign of the times: we’re smarter in theory but foolish in practice

 

[Voidwalkin]

With an in-group, you can shrug that off easier.

Alone?

If I am any indication, you begin to watch weird YouTube videos about cults, movie reviews, while developing an odd urge to incessantly talk politics so as to distract yourself.

It's not great, really.

 

[Farm Boy]

Closing in on waking up 1500 times without being happy about it. And I've had more help than I deserve.

 

[Narz]

Why would you be hopeful when your agency is removed bit by bit?

I dunno, I think irrational hope is built into our DNA, after our ancestors survived despite the odds over & over & over again.

Also, we don't know the future, change in inevitable & at times when things seem hopeless & people seem incurable dumb sometimes something unpredictable happens (like the renaissance from the dark ages)

People can tell when they aren't doing anything they care about and are largely unnecessary. Especially if "population is the problem." Especially if society tells you this, constantly.

I don't think society ever says that. It seems to say, just keep on it, even if it feels pointless, and don't forget to buy stuff along the way.

The far-right 'depopulation' conspiracy theories suggest the elites are gonna phase out the common man/woman once their labor is no longer needed & honestly I can see why people believe this. The average person @ the average job is expendable.

But the problem is deriving meaning from one's job, that's gonna have to be expanded. Which could be a positive thing.

That things would all be going better if you'd never been here to worry about.

That's a psychological thing, I don't think society would particularly be better or worse without me personally.

With an in-group, you can shrug that off easier.

Yeah it's always been the case, for fear of death you have religion, for fear of outsiders you have xenophobia, etc.

But yeah modern isolation & ability to immerse 24/7 in 'communities' has made people's attachment to these groups more intense.

If I am any indication, you begin to watch weird YouTube videos about cults, movie reviews, while developing an odd urge to incessantly talk politics so as to distract yourself.

It's not great, really.

I think there's a support group for those type of fanatics.

Funny 'place' though, people don't know it's a support group and often spend hours yelling at each other.

Closing in on waking up 1500 times without being happy about it. And I've had more help than I deserve.

Sorry.

What is 'deserve'?

I think many of us don't get enough as kids & then feel guilty when we can't 'take in' support later on. In many ways I've been f-ed pretty bad in life, in other ways I've been spoiled. It's just luck of the draw, no point to feel bad about what good you've received.

 

[Nick723]

Catching up here, so haven’t covered all the ground. An interesting topic / discussion for sure.

Just yesterday, this was on the bbc:

Fertility rate in England and Wales drops to new low

Just over 591,000 babies were born in the UK last year - the lowest number in four decades

www.bbc.co.uk

For me a declining population is for sure better than an ever growing one, but just because of this we shouldn’t belittle the challenges that it will bring.

There’s macro challenges:
- shortage of workers, funding pensions, healthcare, etc
- maintaining infrastructure
- real estate asset prices crashing and knock on effects

But also I expect these things will be quite localised. I expect a declining population will actually accelerate trends we have seen already around which locations ‘win’ and ‘lose’. Eg. Within the UK I expect that even more will concentrate in London, and so on.

 

[Farm Boy]

deserve

It's a statement of gratitude for goodnesses that have been offered with no expectation, recognition, or reward. Bits of finite lives, spent on me. Nothing was done to earn it, I know the why of the reason, guilt doesn't play into it.

The beat of the world has kindnesses in it. Which is very hard to remember when you hate the world entire.

 

[Narz]

The beat of the world has kindnesses in it

Maybe for the luckiest of us. Most creatures live lives where they're constantly trying to avoid being eaten alive. As humans we can try to improve on nature's indifferent design, so we're blessed in that way.

 

[Farm Boy]

Well yes, you aren't a cricket.

But even very unlucky people live in a world that has kindness in it. Maybe it's just not been given them in a while. Or maybe they'll get some of that never. Does that make it worse, or better, or just whatever?