Euro 2004 Prediction Contest !

[Dell19]

By the way, I don't know how to record the scores for the predictions. How do you do usually for the Champions' league ? It's quite messy between those who predict the right scores, the right victories and losses, the right qualifications, etc...

I ended up using just one sheet with all the predictions and then the actual results were addeded into the first players section and then this would be automatically copied downwards and the scores automatically copied and then displayed together at the top so that I had to then was sort the scores.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I ended up using just one sheet with all the predictions and then the actual results were addeded into the first players section and then this would be automatically copied downwards and the scores automatically copied and then displayed together at the top so that I had to then was sort the scores.

I'm sorry Dell19, I'm not a native english speaker, could you explain that again ?

 

[Dell19]

For the Euro CL competition I just used one spreadsheet and copied everyone's predictions onto the same sheet so that each set of predictions was below the last one. The first columns stored the predictions and then the next set of columns stored the actual results however these only had to be entered into the first player's predictions as these scores would then be copied down by using formulas. Then the final columns were used to calculate the scores. Finally the total scores were all linked to cells at the top so that all the scores were together so that sorting was easy.

 

[Marla_Singer]

For the Euro CL competition I just used one spreadsheet and copied everyone's predictions onto the same sheet so that each set of predictions was below the last one. The first columns stored the predictions and then the next set of columns stored the actual results however these only had to be entered into the first player's predictions as these scores would then be copied down by using formulas. Then the final columns were used to calculate the scores. Finally the total scores were all linked to cells at the top so that all the scores were together so that sorting was easy.

Ok, thank you.

And how were determined the points giving the scores ?
Here's a proposal :

Preliminary groups :
- 2 points if you predict well who win or if it's a draw.
- 1 point if you predict well the goal average
- 1 point if you predict well the goals scored by A
- 1 point if you predict well the goals scored by B

That makes 5 points max for each game. There are 24 games.

Playoffs :
- 5 points for each team you've predicted well they would reach the quarter-finals.
- 5 points more if you determined well his ranking in the group (#1 and #2).
- 10 points for each team in the semis.
- 25 points for each team in the final.
- 50 points for the right winner.

If you have predicted everything accurately because you are God, you get 340 points.

If I don't want to give points for the right scores in the playoffs, it's mainly because few of us will predict perfectly the 8 quarter-finalists. Thus, it's quite pointless to give a score about games that didn't occur... However, we can re-organize predictions when all the quarters are determines, and give points like in the preliminary matches ? What do you think about it ?

 

[Dell19]

For the league stages:
1 point for the correct number of goals for the home team
1 point for the correct number of goals for the away team
3 points for the correct result (win, draw or loss)
So there was a maximum of 5 points.

For the later stages the points were generally doubled for each round so that the final was multiplied by 10.

This points system isn't amazing and it could be changed either completely or by adding more ways to score points for instance by getting an extra point if you predict the correct goal difference between the two teams.

 

[Dell19]

Oh and a general point for these competitions is that its a good idea to send out advertising PMs to those people who you see posting around Sports Talk and might like to enter but may have missed the thread about the competitions or felt that it would take up too much time.

 

[MCdread]

This points system isn't amazing and it could be changed either completely or by adding more ways to score points for instance by getting an extra point if you predict the correct goal difference between the two teams.

I definitely agree with that one.
I prefer Dell's system (the one we use in the CL competitions) because we can still prewdict the scores on latter stages, unlike what it seems Marla intends to do.

 

[Dell19]

The problem with the CL way for the later rounds is that it becomes necessary for people to make predictions for the later rounds when the teams are known which could be difficult when there are only a couple of days between the a stage finishing and the next starting.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I definitely agree with that one.
I prefer Dell's system (the one we use in the CL competitions) because we can still prewdict the scores on latter stages, unlike what it seems Marla intends to do.

No MCdread. You should re-read my post. Ok I'll try to make it clearer.


Before the competition

- Among the 24 group matches (6 for each group), we give points according to the results of the matches (Win, Deuce, Loss, goals scored, goal average, etc...)
- Once the group matches are over, there will be the playoff. Here, the scores of the matches don't count anymore. We get points simply according to the number of teams we've well predicted in the last 8, in the last 4, in the last 2 and the winner.

During the competition

- Once the quarter finals are determined, then, we can predict the scores for the 4 quarter finals.
- Once the semi finals are determined, then, we can predict the scores for the 2 semi finals.
- Once the final is determined, then, we can predict the right score for the final.

Of course, we can't take into account the results of games which wouldn't occur because the quarter-finalists aren't those we've predicted.

What do you think about that ?

 

[Marla_Singer]

This points system isn't amazing and it could be changed either completely or by adding more ways to score points for instance by getting an extra point if you predict the correct goal difference between the two teams.

Oh ok ! Now I get it !
Well, what you called the goal difference between the two teams is what I considered as the goal average... sorry, I just realized the goal average on one game is meaningless. My bad :blush

 

[Dell19]

The original CL model was based on a website that used similar scoring for the league stage and then you picked the teams which you thought would progress through the next rounds instead of predicting the scores. So that might be why me and MCdread thought you were talking about this kind of system.

 

[Marla_Singer]

The original CL model was based on a website that used similar scoring for the league stage and then you picked the teams which you thought would progress through the next rounds instead of predicting the scores. So that might be why me and MCdread thought you were talking about this kind of system.

Yeah I understand. That's actually how is thought the Excel file since we have to predict all the results untill the final. So, we do as we've said ?


Do you agree with this points distribution ?


Group Matches points :

• 3 points if you determine well a win/deuce/loss in a group match.
• 1 point if you determined well the goal difference in a group match.
• 1 point if you determined well the goal scored by "A" in a group match.
• 1 point if you determined well the goal scored by "B" in a group match.

Playoffs points :

• 5 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the quarters.
• 5 points more if you determined well his ranking in the group (#1 or #2)
• 10 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the semis.
• 25 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the final.
• 50 points more if you picked the right winner.

 

[Hitro]

With this point system predicting the right winner gives more points than getting the precise results of eight games. I think that is far too much.

 

[Marla_Singer]

With this point system predicting the right winner gives more points than getting the precise results of eight games. I think that is far too much.

Yeah you're right.

Especially that when you pick the right winner, it means you've picked at least one good finalist, semi-finalist and quarter-finalist. Which would guarantee you 50+25+10+5= 90 points. The equivalent of 15 scores picked accurately in the preliminary groups !

As people are obviously too shy to propose other point distributions, what do you think about that ?

• 3 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the quarters.
• 2 points more if you determined well his ranking in the group (#1 or #2)
• 6 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the semis.
• 9 points for each teams you've determined accurately as reaching the final.
• 15 points more if you picked the right winner.

Max Points possible :

• Preliminary groups : 144 points maximum
• Playoffs : points 97 points (QF=40, SF=24, F=18, W=15)

Knowing that preliminary groups points would be harder to win, because we need to perfectly predict well the scores of the game to get it, I guess it's fair this way.

However, if we continue as in the preliminary groups for the quarters, semis and final, then that would create 42 extra points (unless if we give more points for those who predict well those stuff, then it would be more).

 

[MrPresident]

Oh, Jesus. Why do all these threads have end up like this?

 

[Dell19]

Well the competitions have to be fair and agreed on

 

[phoenix_night]

@Dell19,
Why do the points increase per round (in the CL competition)?

Isn't it a bit unfair to give so many more points for later rounds...what's the reasoning?

 

[Dell19]

Well there are more games in the previous rounds so if the points didn't increase then the final would count as just one game and essentially have no effect on the overall standings as by this point the standings would be quite spread out. So doubling the points basically makes each round worth roughly the same which I feel makes the game more interesting and encourages people to continue submitting predictions.

 

[MCdread]

I don't like the proposed system very much because when you give points to someone that guesses correctly the teams that qualify for the quarters, that person is scoring twice for the same prediction. When someone submits a prediction for each game, in the end the combination of those predictions will give the predicted final classification of each group. Awarding extra points is double scoring.
I think I prefer the CL scheme we have used, where we only submit predictions as the tournament pogresses.

 

[Dell19]

How would you deal with the lack of time between rounds? Not everyone will have the time to make their predictions for the next round before it starts... Also whilst it is perhaps overlapping scoring, its unlikely someone would fully predict all the scores correctly so the teams that they predict to go through may be correct whilst the scores completely wrong.