1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

February Shatters Monthly Temperature Record

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Lexicus, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2007
    Messages:
    23,559
    Location:
    Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
    What worries me is that the models don't take enough of the feedback cycles into account, because we don't know everything that's going on yet. I know that 'uncertainty' is typically a denialist talking point but I worry very much that the uncertainties may go in the other direction.

    I'm not climate expert or anything, but it does seem like by many measures (sea ice loss in the Arctic for example) the actual change is proceeding faster than many of the models anticipated.
     
  2. s0nny80y

    s0nny80y King

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2011
    Messages:
    703
    Location:
    Cleveland Clinic, Ohio class RNC
    there will be warmth.
     
  3. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,621
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    I know you don't believe in physics. The idea that a known mass of CO2 will have a predictable forcing is just not to be believed

    But while the climate models were not bang-on, the total observed heat increase is pretty good. And, obviously, vastly higher than the deniers predicted.

    "But the ice melted faster than you predicted, and you forgot to factor in middle-ocean heating!!! Clearly there's no warming!!!"
     
  4. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2007
    Messages:
    23,559
    Location:
    Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
    Often left out is that some of the models made more modest predictions than were actually borne out. Having seen the "prediction space" (a term I just made up but I think you can guess what it means) compared with the actual temperature record, it looks as if the models have been pretty accurate on the whole.

    Of course the denialists seem to forget that the ocean is also part of the "globe".

    Spoiler :
     
  5. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2014
    Messages:
    5,547
    Gender:
    Male
    Ticks and mosquitoes, man. Ticks and mosquitoes. Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, tularemia, malaria, West Nile virus, Dengue fever, chikungunya, equine encephalitis, and of course the much-in-the-news zika (and, if you have a dog in the family, heartworm). Add to that the declining efficacy of antibiotics, which is the treatment for at least some of these diseases, and you've got a decent premise for a sci-fi/horror novel.
     
  6. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,621
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    1992, people. 1992

    Wattsupwiththat


    DrRoySpencer



    Look at that 1992 dip. We still had solid enough science to come to a global consensus. Record cooling year, and the scientists and regulators knew WTF they were talking about.
     
  7. Martin Alvito

    Martin Alvito Real men play SMAC

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2010
    Messages:
    2,332
    The Starks are no longer right in the end; summer is coming.
     
  8. tokala

    tokala Emperor

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2006
    Messages:
    1,739
    Location:
    Klein Texas, Germany
    Unfortunately not.
    There are more greenhouse gases than just CO2 that increase in concentration due to human activity.
    The timescale of "equilibrium" climate sensitivity is long enough that mostly CO2 matters, but for timescales relevant for people living today, CH4,CFCs etc. will add significantly to the CO2 effect:



    This means we are already at about 480ppm CO2 equivalent (image from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/aggi.html).

    By the way, in direct comparison to the 1997/8 El Nino, the current one is about 0.4°C warmer, in line, if not a bit higher than expected from the temperature trend of 0.15 to 0.2°C per decade since about 1970.


    Once again showing that there is/was no pause in the warming trend, and all the denier spin-doctoring was heavily relying on that one exceptional 1997/8 El Nino.

    So prepare for another decade or so of "But there was no warming since 2016!!!!"
     
  9. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2005
    Messages:
    49,912
    Location:
    Stamford Bridge
    It's not that bad around these parts, I'm not that close to a body of water. There is a river that runs through town, but at least 2km away. Not too many mosquito problems around here, ever, but yeah, if this climate change nonsense leads to an amount of mosquitoes that is annoying, then I wouldn't like that one bit.
     
  10. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,621
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    Now imagine if you were told by Westerners who had literally flooded your shoreline by miles and miles that you weren't entitled to emit the amount that they had emitted since they first learned in 1992 that we were collectively on a budget.
     
  11. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    9,437
    Location:
    Mid-Illinois
    Granted, of course. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is usually quoted in terms of CO2 doubling, but the other GHGs matter too.

    One thing I've tried looking into, and came away confused about, is what exactly is happening with methane. It shot up quite rapidly through most of the 20th century to reach over 1700 ppb by 1990, and then barely climbed to about 1775 by the end of that decade, then plateaued out at right around that level until about 2007, and finally started slowly rising again. It's not as though we raised less cattle or rice in the 1990s and 2000s than before that date. Papers I've read express a lot of uncertainty about what exactly happened there. It seems to me that methane dynamics are really poorly understood despite being the second most important GHG.
     
  12. tokala

    tokala Emperor

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2006
    Messages:
    1,739
    Location:
    Klein Texas, Germany
    Do you have a link to a decent paper that discusses that issue?
    I'm very curious as well.

    Naively one would suspect either the fracking boom (higher losses due to a bazillion small wells compared to a few big ones) or permafrost (thawing) as a source.
    But if it were that easy, someone would have pointed this out already, I think.
     
  13. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2003
    Messages:
    9,437
    Location:
    Mid-Illinois
    Here is a decent Nature paper from 2013 about methane over the past three decades. They don't really say anything about fracking only to say that it could be a factor. I think I've seen some other source(s) that seemed to indicate from C-13 ratios that it wasn't the major reason for the renewed increase, but I can't remember where that was.
     
  14. tokala

    tokala Emperor

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2006
    Messages:
    1,739
    Location:
    Klein Texas, Germany
    Thanks :)
     
  15. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2014
    Messages:
    5,547
    Gender:
    Male
    I'm not sure what temperature or humidity range mosquitoes flourish in. I know that they can lay eggs in the water inside an upturned bottlecap. I also know they can hibernate through a New England Winter and then come out in force in a New England Summer.

    Oh, I forgot to mention the mysterious fungal infection that is killing bats by the millions. You know what bats eat by the ton? Mosquitoes (well, insects of all kinds, really - bats just scoop 'em up by the mouthful).

    EDIT: Oh yeah, "White Nose Syndrome."

    As if US agriculture didn't have enough to worry about.
     

Share This Page