Founding Religion

Short answer.

Nope.​

Long answer.

A religion will only be founded in your capital if your capital is your only city.

A religion is more likely to be founded in your city with the fewest religions present.

A religion is more likely to be founded in a larger city than a smaller city with the same number of religions.​
 
The only way I've managed to force a religion to be founded in a specific city is to avoid spreading any religions to it beforehand. Since some religions spread on their own, this is not 100% reliable, unless the city is not attached to any trade routes (has no roads connecting to it, it's not on a tile next to a river, it's not coastal or you don't have Sailing yet). If you have a religion in every city but that one, it will become the holy city.
 
Short answer.

Nope.​

Long answer.

A religion will only be founded in your capital if your capital is your only city.

A religion is more likely to be founded in your city with the fewest religions present.

A religion is more likely to be founded in a larger city than a smaller city with the same number of religions.​

There's a random element too, so it's not a perfect science - but generally as was said, the city with the highest population and no or fewest religions (your capital not included) has the highest probability of becoming the holy city. To a limited extent, you can control your population and the spread of other religions to try and force the founding in a target city - I've done this before with earlier religions like Judaism, when there's not a lot of other religions present in the game yet. Still, it doesn't always work out the way you want it to.
 
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