Generally, when playing the standard game, I could tell by the end of the Ancient Age if the game was worth continuing to play or not. If not, I dumped it and started again.
I can tell if I'm going to win by the end of the ancient age. But I don't know who the main rival will be until after navigation when I come in contact with all the other leaders.
generally, mid-late middle ages, once I have met everyone and those who got the crappy starts are out it is fairly obvious who will be the major rival and whether or not I will be able to take out a victory
I can usually tell by the early mddle ages whether it is winnable, and I know the primary nemesis by the mid-middle ages. Usually Persia or the Iroquois.
Middle ages, when I've got "decent area" under my control and/or towns are in good shape. If starting area was bad, then towns might not be in good shape and final result will be revealed in industrial (after railroad/cavalry).
I picked modern. Sometimes "the outcome" might work out clearer earlier and sometimes I don't even make it there. If I remember correctly, all my victories have gone to at least the industrial age. I just had a game where I had to research and then partially buy the last two industrial techs and then partially research and partially buy a modern tech. If you don't make it at least to the middle of the industrial ages, don't you need a harder variant?
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