[R&F] How well did we guess the R&F civs?

[WillowBrook]

Back before the first looks started, a few dozen people contributed their lists of guesses of the civs to come in R&F in this thread: https://forums.civfanatics.com/thre...d-leaders-should-be-introduced-in-r-f.624904/

I copied out 36 lists posted prior to the Korea first look, hoping to find a few prescient guessers among us. Alas, my search was in vain, as we all did pretty poorly.

In summary, many people correctly guessed Korea, Mongolia, and the Netherlands/Dutch. A handful of people guessed the Zulu or Georgia, but no one had both on their list. No one guessed Scotland, the Cree, or the Mapuche.

Note that I did not consider a guess for the Celts to be a prediction of Scotland or a general guess of a Native North American civ to be specific enough for the Cree.

Eight people got four civs correct (listed in chronological order of their posts):
@rambow13
@DJ_Tanner
@Remmert
@bite
WillowBrook
@Zaarin
@Vahnstad
@chronoturner

Congrats!

But why did we do so poorly? Too much group think, keeping people from unconventional guesses? Or were three of the civs just totally unpredictable?

 

[Giskler]

Too many people including fan favorites like the Ottomans and the Inca on their list as a "FOR SURE THING" probably

 

[chronoturner]

Oh boy, I feel so lucky to have guessed (four) correctly!

I might as well throw my ideas into the ring.

- Korea led by Seongdeok. Seems all but confirmed with the teaser from yesterday.
- Mongolia led by Ogedei Khan. To differentiate from the Scythians maybe they can pillage faster and easier? Throwing that in the ring.
- Netherlands led by Willem van Oranje/Wilhelmina... I honestly can't decide on which.
- Inca led by someone. I'm not too well-versed in Incan history, bit I think they'd fill out a decent part of the map.
- Mali led again, by someone. This is again based on what I think would fill out the map.
- Native American civ which has not been seen before. Idealy one from the West coast, or the Great Plains.
- Georgia led by Tamar.
- Canada led by Simon de Champlain.

New leader will be Isabella I for Spain.

Looking back at my quesses, I'm slightly surprised by my guesses. Three leaders correct, four civs. Although I am still slightly sour about Mali being not an inclusion, I am still relatively positive for this expansion, and it looks like it can provide a livelier game to some relatively stale formulas.

 

[Mr Jon of Cheam]

I think we all convinced ourselves the Ottomans and Inca would be included just by repeating it so many times, there never was any evidence that they would be included.

 

[kaspergm]

I think we all convinced ourselves the Ottomans and Inca would be included just by repeating it so many times, there never was any evidence that they would be included.

It was not an unreasonably assumption, however, if you ask me at least.

 

[Mr Jon of Cheam]

It was not an unreasonably assumption, however, if you ask me at least.

Definitely not unreasonable but it's interesting that so many people were convinced. I assumed they would be in simply because I trusted the wisdom of CFC and I'm sure I wasn't alone!

 

[blackcatatonic]

Three Civs (Korea, Netherlands, Mongolia) were obviously hinted in the trailer. Georgia was as well, but far less obviously so considering that not many of us know a great deal about Georgia, and also it took most people a while to take them seriously as a possibility because of the Tamar meme. Whereas the first three were all stalwarts of the series, and very recognisable to boot.

Leaks aside, we had pretty much nothing to go on for the final four other than comparison with previous Civ titles and the TSL map to guess who might be missing. Nothing else in the trailer was obvious enough to really be considered a hint (the "Italian" plague doctor mask was nothing of the sort, and there was nothing to suggest Carthage or Maya in the harbour scene).
Then there was the Chateau Frontenac red herring and the fact that Toronto wasn't seen until very late on, which misled some people (myself included) into thinking Canada would turn up.

Based on previous Civ titles and TSL, the Inca seemed obvious. The idea that we might get the Mapuche instead never entered my head until Blurry Headband Guy turned out to not look very Inca. Even now I still expect the Inca to turn up at some point in Civ VI.

The Ottomans also seemed pretty likely given past appearances. They also could have been a good option for a naval Civ - something we don't have in R&F except for Wilhelmina's unique ship.

I thought we might get a Native American Civ but would never have guessed the Cree. I thought we'd definitely have another European Civ but was surprised by Scotland (pleasantly so!). I'm still firmly on board the Italy train for the next expansion, though

The Zulu was possibly the biggest shock for me, weirdly enough - for the simple reason that I didn't expect to see them in the same expansion as Mongolia. But they were bound to show up sooner or later. And it was reasonable to expect an African Civ, given that we already had representatives from most other continents.

 

[DrJambo]

Really chuffed that as a Scot, Scotland has finally made an appearance as Scotland, and not as the Celts!

Anyone arguing against their inclusion and impact as a Civ only needs to go read about the enlightenment and how the great thinkers in Scotland have shaped modern life.

Also nice to see some unusual entries like Georgia and Mapuche making an appearance and overall I think it makes for an interesting line up.

Now, if they could only get the AI to be effective in the late game.

 

[Uberfrog]

It was a combination of assuming that some civs were shoo-ins - which worked for the Netherlands, Mongolia and Korea, but failed for the Inca and Ottomans - and several genuine curveballs. From the vanilla and DLC line-up (particularly Scythia and Australia) we had an inkling that they would throw in some surprises, but I don't think many people believed that we'd see Scotland, Georgia, the Mapuche and the Cree arrive all at once.

People guessing 4/8 sounds about right, since Firaxis went for 50% obvious choices and 50% rank outsiders

 

[ChocolateShake]

Maybe we could have a DLC guessing game?

I thought the Inca were in for sure. It seems like they're not shying away from including civs that are very close neighbors to existing civs, and I like that. I'd say groupthink probably played a big part, it's hard to take a chance on predicting what seems like a remote possibility. Next time I'll try to make some wild guesses

 

[Ondolindë]

It was definitely betting for the big and most popular ones, I guess, or going against the ones we are not fans of. I guess we thought they would give us more of the usual ones. But, I am happy to have been wrong with some, although I will miss and long for the Inca until we do get them.

 

[Disgustipated]

Too much group think

This for me as well. Especially when people kept mentioning the absence of Italian city-states, that really got me thinking it could happen. Also I thought they would include major mainstays such as Ottomans and/or Byzantines.

 

[ChocolateShake]

Really chuffed that as a Scot, Scotland has finally made an appearance as Scotland, and not as the Celts!

Anyone arguing against their inclusion and impact as a Civ only needs to go read about the enlightenment and how the great thinkers in Scotland have shaped modern life.

Also nice to see some unusual entries like Georgia and Mapuche making an appearance and overall I think it makes for an interesting line up.

Now, if they could only get the AI to be effective in the late game.

Happy for you! Scotland definitely deserves its spot, I hope we see them frequently in the upcoming iterations. Really nice to have a civ that rewards trying to keep your people happy so well.

I'm hoping we get Ireland or the Gauls as DLC or in the next expansion.

 

[liv]

I'm hoping we get Ireland or the Gauls as DLC or in the next expansion.

And then Wales and we will be good????
My guesses were quite wrong exept for the three obvious ones. I really did think that some of the traditional civs would be in there such as Maya or Inca (I guessed Maya I think, thinking that they would like to get a female ruler and a cultural civ in with them) and I guessed either Carthage or the Ottoman hoping and believing in another ocean civ. I thought it was fairly likely it would be Isabella rather than Tamar. I would probably never have thought of the Cree

I am not unhappy with the current civs.

So how do "they" make their decisions on who to add? Sort of randomish?

 

[SammyKhalifa]

Yeah I stunk at guessing.

 

[ChocolateShake]

And then Wales and we will be good????

lol Wales would be good too, but I think that might be taking it a bit too far in terms of British Isles representation

So how do "they" make their decisions on who to add? Sort of randomish?

I think they want to keep things fresh for civ fans, and to me it seems like this iteration will keep us guessing. They've covered a lot of the world, with the exception of West Africa.