Hurricane Katrina becomes Category 4

[Quasar1011]

From the Weather Channel website:

As of 2 a.m. CDT, Katrina has been downgraded to a strong Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 155 mph. Much of the western half of Katrina has degraded as dry air has been drawn into the cyclone allowing weakening to occur. Although Katrina has been downgraded, it remains a strong and dangerous hurricane. Katrina is a large hurricane with hurricane-force winds extending 105 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending up to 230 miles from the center. Movement is now northward and a turn towards the north-northeast is expected tonight.

 

[Quasar1011]

From the Weather Channel: A map of Katrina's current wind field.

 

[Quasar1011]

Also from the Weather Channel: A map of projected sea level rise.

 

[IglooDame]

Bulletin
Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 25b
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
2 Am Cdt Mon Aug 29 2005

...potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Katrina Beginning To Turn
Northward Toward Southeastern Louisiana And The Northern Gulf
Coast...
...sustained Hurricane-force Winds Occurring Along The
Southeastern Louisiana Coast...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The North Central Gulf Coast
From Morgan City Louisiana Eastward To The Alabama/florida
Border...including The City Of New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

Are they always that droll and obvious in the hurricane bulletins?

 

[Quasar1011]

Whoops, wrong map! And it's taking forever to edit these posts . So, here is the storm surge forecast map:

 

[Quasar1011]

Are they always that droll and obvious in the hurricane bulletins?

They pretty much always include that statement, when a hurricane warning is posted. Which means, hurricane force winds are expected in the warned area within 24 hours.

 

[IglooDame]

They pretty much always include that statement, when a hurricane warning is posted. Which means, hurricane force winds are expected in the warned area within 24 hours.

Ah, cool. Because otherwise, it comes across as "Hey, the fourth most powerful hurricane to hit the US in the last century or so is coming right at you, you're in an area particularly vulnerable to hurricane damage, and we've been telling you to get out of the area for the past 24hours at least. Ummm, you really should stop worrying about nailing plywood to the window frames and leave now."

 

[Quasar1011]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 26
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Mon Aug 29 2005

Air Force Recon Has Been Investigating Katrina This Morning And Has
Reported Some Mechanical Problems Which Has Prevented Making A
Complete Assessment Of The Intensity In The Northeast Quadrant.
However...flight-level Winds Of 132-134 Kt Have Been Reported In
The Southeast Quadrant...while Noaa Doppler Radar Velocities From
Wfo Slidell Exceeding 123 Kt Have Been Observed In The Northeast
Quadrant Between 12000-16000 Ft. These Wind Values Would Support At
Least 125 Kt Surface Winds. Although The Central Pressure Has
Continued To Increase And Is Now 915 Mb...this Would Usually
Support About 145 Kt Surface. The Initial Intensity Of 130 Kt Is A
Blend Of These Values.

The Initial Motion Is 360/13. Katrina Is Moving Northward Around The
Western Periphery Of A Large-scale Mid- To Upper-level Ridge
Located Over The Florida Peninsula And Extending Northwestward
Across The Southeastern United States. The Combination Of The
Strong Ridge And An Approaching Mid-level Trough From The West
Should Act To Keep Katrina Moving Generally Northward For The Next
12 Hours Or So. By 24 Hours...the Hurricane Is Expected To Turn
Northeastward As A Stronger Trough Lifts Out The System And
Transitions It Into An Extratropical Low Over The Great Lakes
Region. The Official Forecast Track Is Just A Little To The Left Of
The Previous Track And Is Similar To The Nhc Model Consensus.

Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Possible Right Up Until Landfall
Occurs. However...it Appears That Katrina Will Make Landfall As A
Category 4 Hurricane Later This Morning. The Cloud Pattern In
Satellite Imagery Has Eroded On The West Side Due To Dry Air
Entrainment...and The Eyewall Has Opened Up To The South And
Southwest In Radar Imagery. However...the Water Remains Quite Warm
Underneath The Center...and Convection Can Easily Redevelop And The
Eyewall Close Off Again Before Landfall Occurs. Some Disruption Of
The Circulation Will Occur Once The Center Moves Over Southeastern
Louisiana. However...the Forecast Track Keeps The Eye Close Enough
To Warm Water Near The Louisiana And Mississippi Coasts. The
Upper-level Outflow Pattern Remains Quite Impressive And Even
Contains A Rare 200 Mb Indraft Anticyclone To The East Near Tampa
Bay. The Combination Of The Outflow Regime And The Close Proximity
To Warm Water May Be Enough To Keep Katrina A Major Hurricane When
It Reaches The Louisiana-mississippi Border Area This Afternoon.
just Because Katrina Is No Longer A Catgeory 5 Hurricane Does Not Mean That Extensive Damage And Storm Surge Flooding Will Not Occur. This Is Still An Extremely Dangerous And Potentially Deadly Hurricane!

Forecaster Stewart

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 29/0900z 28.8n 89.6w 130 Kt
12hr Vt 29/1800z 30.6n 89.6w 110 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 30/0600z 33.6n 89.0w 60 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 30/1800z 36.7n 87.2w 35 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 31/0600z 39.8n 84.1w 30 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 01/0600z 45.5n 76.5w 25 Kt...inland Extratropical
96hr Vt 02/0600z 51.0n 68.0w 25 Kt...inland Extratropical
120hr Vt 03/0600z...dissipated Inland

 

[IglooDame]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 26
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Mon Aug 29 2005

Air Force Recon Has Been Investigating Katrina This Morning And Has
Reported Some Mechanical Problems Which Has Prevented Making A
Complete Assessment Of The Intensity In The Northeast Quadrant.

Suuuure, some mechanical problems like the fact that the crew from the previous flight through the dangerous semicircle still hasn't stopped shaking.

Just kidding, of course; I wouldn't question the bravery of pilots that deliberately fly into hurricanes and frankly wouldn't fault them for a second if they said "Hey, you know what? It is a big freakin hurricane, and it is about to hit land, so figure it out yourselves from here on out, we're taking this plane to Las Vegas and having a couple beers."

And btw Quasar, thanks for the updates and the expert opinion.

 

[IglooDame]

Specifically "Many residents of the city have not been able to escape the city due to lack of own transportation or money." which makes me wonder why the government did not charter trains out of public funds?

The usual tactic for hurricanes (and indeed tornadoes and other storms and natural disasters) is to provide pre-designated local shelters. I don't think anyone doubts that the Superdome (a major sports stadium seating probably 50,000) will be a safe-haven, particular the parts (probably everything but the center field area) above possible floodwaters. Why attempt to transport tens of thousands of people in addition to the current evacuees when you can put them up safely in local facilities?

 

[Rik Meleet]

Moderator Action: Changed the title to: "Hurricane Katrina becomes Category 4" as Katrina has been upgraded.

 

[stormbind]

As a point of reference: the last catagory 5 hurricane to hit the U.S. was Andrew, in 1992. According to reports, Andrew killed 43 people and did $31 billion (with a b) in damage.

The other two catagory 5 storms to hit:

Labor Day hurricane of 1935 (storms were not yet being given names) killed 600 people

Hurricane Camille in 1969 killed 256

Is that all? I lived through Andrew and it was a pansy bit of nonsense. Destruction hit trailer parks, but be realistic: practically anything can destroy a trailer park.

Sounds like the US media has been getting me all uppity about nothing - again.

 

[stormbind]

From the Weather Channel website:

As of 2 a.m. CDT, Katrina has been downgraded to a strong Category 4 hurricane with top winds of 155 mph. Much of the western half of Katrina has degraded as dry air has been drawn into the cyclone allowing weakening to occur. Although Katrina has been downgraded, it remains a strong and dangerous hurricane. Katrina is a large hurricane with hurricane-force winds extending 105 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending up to 230 miles from the center. Movement is now northward and a turn towards the north-northeast is expected tonight.

That is exactly what I said would happen. The bigger the hurricane, the quicker it burns out.

 

[stormbind]

The usual tactic for hurricanes (and indeed tornadoes and other storms and natural disasters) is to provide pre-designated local shelters. I don't think anyone doubts that the Superdome (a major sports stadium seating probably 50,000) will be a safe-haven, particular the parts (probably everything but the center field area) above possible floodwaters. Why attempt to transport tens of thousands of people in addition to the current evacuees when you can put them up safely in local facilities?

Yeah, I know. They put people in schools made of thick concrete to protect them from winds and debris, but this storm is not about a strong winds - it s about flooding. What good is single-story concrete when water levels rise up to 20' or 25'?

It is the flooding which concerns me. It can do far more damage than wind: objects weigh less in water, and water has greater momentum than air

I hope the city has huge water pumps to prevent the level rising too much.

 

[IglooDame]

Yeah, I know. They put people in schools made of thick concrete to protect them from winds and debris, but this storm is not about a strong winds - it s about flooding. What good is single-story concrete when water levels rise up to 20' or 25'?

It is the flooding which concerns me. It can do far more damage than wind: objects weigh less in water, and water has greater momentum than air

I hope the city has huge water pumps to prevent the level rising too much.

The shelters are in locations where storm surge and flooding are not going to be a threat, ordinarily. In the case of New Orleans (and, I suspect, Mobile), if higher-elevation shelters are not available nearby, they use solid buildings with more than three stories, the Superdome being the best example. Emergency management planners and coordinators are not morons.

 

[IglooDame]

Is that all? I lived through Andrew and it was a pansy bit of nonsense. Destruction hit trailer parks, but be realistic: practically anything can destroy a trailer park.

Sounds like the US media has been getting me all uppity about nothing - again.

My ex-wife lived through Andrew and tells a different tale. That trailer parks would be the first to go is a given, but neighborhoods full of regular houses were also wiped out, and local business buildings and strip malls as well. You know Andrew pretty much knocked out Homestead Air Force Base, right?

 

[Singularity]

The eye of Katrina now passes the Mississippi. The centrepoint of the system is locked on New Orleans - and if the cloud conditions are good in the eye we should be able to get a high res image of the entire New Orleans city centre that's embedded between the mississipi, the sea and the big lake to the north of New Orleans.

What does this mean? It means that Katrine is loosing it's last category 4 energy directly on to the manmade protections that seperate the lake and New Orleans from the sea. If you can spot the small stretch of land the hurricanes eye is moving over now - that is the Mississippi outles area - directly to the north and just a little bit to the west of the eye we have New Orleans downtown.

I'm not a religious person, but still I pray for the people left in New Orleans and for their safety.

 

[Uiler]

This is probably not a good time to say this, but for the detailed information you are giving on the hurricane, your name is really really appropriate

The eye of Katrina now passes the Mississippi. The centrepoint of the system is locked on New Orleans - and if the cloud conditions are good in the eye we should be able to get a high res image of the entire New Orleans city centre that's embedded between the mississipi, the sea and the big lake to the north of New Orleans.

What does this mean? It means that Katrine is loosing it's last category 4 energy directly on to the manmade protections that seperate the lake and New Orleans from the sea. If you can spot the small stretch of land the hurricanes eye is moving over now - that is the Mississippi outles area - directly to the north and just a little bit to the west of the eye we have New Orleans downtown.

I'm not a religious person, but still I pray for the people left in New Orleans and for their safety.

 

[Uiler]

According to this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050829...vcbLisB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

The electricity has failed at the Superdome where 10 000 people are taking shelter. The emergency generators have kicked in but are not enough to run the air conditioners. I also read that they didn't have enough time to set up portable toilets (or bad planning?). So 10 000 people stuck in an enclosed area with the lower parts flooded, not enough toilets and no air conditioner. Ouch.

 

[IglooDame]

According to this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050829...vcbLisB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

The electricity has failed at the Superdome where 10 000 people are taking shelter. The emergency generators have kicked in but are not enough to run the air conditioners. I also read that they didn't have enough time to set up portable toilets (or bad planning?). So 10 000 people stuck in an enclosed area with the lower parts flooded, not enough toilets and no air conditioner. Ouch.

I'm tempted to withdraw my earlier comment to Stormbind that emergency management planners are not morons.