Originally posted by Killer
another nice occurrence, and this one very lucky:
I attack town size 6 with Immortals. Defenders all are vet Spearmen (8 HP), fortified. No river.
All my Immortals win. Remaining HP:
elite Immo: 3 of 11 (my mod)
vet Immo: 5 of 8
vet Immo: 1 of 8
then I accidently attackedc with an elite Spearman.
result: he still has 3 out of 11 HP!!!!!
This is what I call ridiculous!
This is very lucky indeed, but ridiculous?
Let's look at the numbers:
First, to be honest, I have never really learned the defense bonuses for cities, so I computed this first with a defense factor of 3 (the spearmen got a multiplier of 1.5 for being in a size 6 city and fortified) and then with a defense factor of 4 (a 2.0 multiplier).
The odds of the above result (or even luckier) is:
With defense of 3: 3/1000
With defense of 4: 2.5/10000
These are the odds for the results to happen in the exact order as you described. If it did not matter whether the first or second vet immo only lost 3 HP, then the odds would be doubled, etc.
So, what is ridiculous:
1) The fact that the odds arent zero with true random numbers?
2) The fact that that such low-odd strings of results happen according to the odds? (which I believe they do)
3) The fact that such low-odd strings happen a lot more often than they should? (which it seems to me you believe)
Or do you agree that this happens according to the odds, but think that it shouldn't happen at all? Do you think that the game should remember whether one side has had much bad or good luck, and even it out within a few battles?