Is regime change possible in Iran?

[Bast]

Just wondering. We've heard of student protests over the years. But why isn't more happening? Does anyone know if anything significant could happen on this front?

 

[Winner]

Just wondering. We've heard of student protests over the years. But why isn't more happening? Does anyone know if anything significant could happen on this front?

You mean "regime change" as a result of Western military intervention, or a spontaneous revolution?

I think that Iran will gradually become more and more democratic. The young Iranians really aren't the greatest fans of corrupt hypocritical clerics who like the Soviet rulers live in luxury in their palaces, while the common people have to pay for that.

Persians as a nation are a lot more perspective than their Arab neigbours.

 

[Cutlass]

Don't hold your breath. When a nation has that degree of totalitarian control, a revolution is near impossible. When it's backed by religious radicals, they always have a core of support that is impossible to dislodge short of a major bloodbath.

 

[Bill3000]

no
non
nein
nyet
neen
nenk
ne
nie
nei
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diri
andi
indi
voch
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ez
dae
nann
nem
na
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daab
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không
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bako
hayir

 

[Shekwan]

Yes it's possible but not likely at the moment.

 

[Phlegmak]

It'll probably slowly change to more liberalization.

 

[Supr49er]

... Persians as a nation are a lot more perspective than their Arab neigbours.

What do you mean by this?

 

[Neomega]

Its possible, from within... if external threats are lessened greatly.

 

[Azkonus]

no
non
nein
nyet
ne
nie
nei
ari
diri
andi
indi
voch
ókhi
ez
dae
nann
nem
na
neyn
ei
sega
daab
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lā
không
inó
uá
bako

hayir......

 

[dionysos2048]

Yes, unless "the West" keeps its aggressive stance towards the current regime, which make this very patriotic people unite behind its government. I can't remember what percentage of Iran's population is under 25 but it's huge. They long for more freedom and would support reformists otherwise.

 

[Thorvald of Lym]

What do you mean by this?

Iranians are not Arabs. They identify more strongly with their Persian ancestry than the more recent Islamic influence. There's a National Geographic article about it.

 

[REDY]

For regime change is needed more than liberal youth. I think that for such large country is needed change in leading circles, because without their support of change we would see changing in 100 years or one protest which would end bloody.

 

[dionysos2048]

^ Remember that people do vote in Iran and can choose between conservatives and reformists. Indeed the difference between Khatami and Ahmadinejad is quite important and with enough support moderate reformists could achieve quite a lot in Iran I think. And it'd be done a lot more easily than by bombing them.

By the way, more than two-thirds of the population is under the age of 30, and Women compose more than half of the incoming classes for universities according to Wikipedia. So these are good ingredients for future changes..

 

[REDY]

^ Yes there is voting. In communist czechoslovakia was also choice - and not only between communists and socialist communists, but also there were christian democrats. But the choice was only on paper, leading members of party were controlled by communists when other, "normal" members were blocked from political power by party leaders. So there was needed some reform movement in leading, communist, party which iniated some reforms. When people firstly saw flicker of real choice, they were asking more and more. In Iran is needed some flicker of this kind, there arent any foreign tanks which would stop it like were in Czechoslovak 1968. There is needed somebody who would try limits of Islamic Republic and people who would pass it on. Some totally insane conservative idiot or some reformist who would be able get significant support among already rooted conservative circles.

 

[zjl56]

Iran was rather radical and started to stabilize in the mid twentieth century. It was only when the U.S forced the Shah back into power that Iranians became extremely nationalistic. Iran is dealing with a half century of idiotic foreign intervention. If the West allows some toleration of Iran, and that means restraining the idiots in Israel, then the situation should resolve itself.

 

[LightFang]

I guarantee that it will change.

You heard it here first!

 

[MagisterCultuum]

I tend to think that if we follow Ron Paul's philosophy in foreign policy that we'd see regime change fairly quickly in Iran, Saudi Arabia,...a lot of countries, not limited to the middle east. I'd expect that most, but not all, would be improvements.

 

[Ecofarm]

^ Remember that people do vote in Iran and can choose between conservatives and reformists. Indeed the difference between Khatami and Ahmadinejad is quite important and with enough support moderate reformists could achieve quite a lot in Iran I think. And it'd be done a lot more easily than by bombing them.

By the way, more than two-thirds of the population is under the age of 30, and Women compose more than half of the incoming classes for universities according to Wikipedia. So these are good ingredients for future changes..

Supreme Leader

The Supreme Leader of Iran is responsible for the delineation and supervision of "the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran". The Supreme Leader is Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, controls the military intelligence and security operations; and has the only power to declare war. The heads of the judiciary, state radio and television networks, the commanders of the police and military forces and six of the twelve members of the Council of Guardians are appointed by the Supreme Leader. The Assembly of Experts elects and dismisses the Supreme Leader on the basis of qualifications and popular esteem--none have ever been dismissed.[9] The Assembly of Experts is responsible for supervising the Supreme Leader in the performance of legal duties...

Executive Branch

Presidential candidates must be approved by the Council of Guardians prior to running.

Legislative Branch - Majles (Parliament)

All Majlis candidates and all legislation from the assembly must be approved by the Council of Guardians.

Guardian Council

The Guardian Council is composed of 12 jurists, including six clerics appointed by the Supreme Leader, and six jurists elected by the Majlis from among the Muslim jurists nominated by the Head of the Judicial System.

Judicial Branch

The Supreme Leader appoints the head of the Judiciary, who in turn appoints the head of the supreme court and the chief public prosecutor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Iran

If you think that is a democracy, then you must think nK is too. Spare me the "they vote" BS. If a reform candidate ever posed a real threat of reform, he would be disapeared.

Iran is a Theocracy

 

[silver 2039]

In the American system of presidential elections, the electoral vote determines the winner, and Bush won this count, although Gore received the most votes (called the "popular vote"). This was the third time in American history that a candidate won the presidency without receiving at least a plurality of the popular vote; it also happened in the elections of 1876 and 1888.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000

Article II of the Constitution gives the President power to nominate justices, who are then appointed "by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate." As a general rule, Presidents nominate individuals who broadly share their ideological views. In many cases, a Justice's decisions may be contrary to what the nominating President anticipated. A famous instance was Chief Justice Earl Warren; President Eisenhower expected him to be a conservative judge, but his decisions are arguably among the most liberal in the Court's history. Eisenhower later called the appointment "the biggest damn fool mistake I ever made."[8] Because the Constitution does not set forth any qualifications for service as a Justice, the President may nominate anyone to serve. However, that person must receive the confirmation of the Senate, meaning that a majority of that body must find that person to be a suitable candidate for a lifetime appointment on the nation's highest court.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Supreme_Court


US is a Oligarchy

Hey look I can do it too.

 

[Rashiminos]

Dutch newspapers point to yes if BushCo decides Ahmadinejad isn't playing ball...