Minimum garrison required to stop a flip?

[Moulton]

I had a German city flip to my total surprise. I had captured it several hundred years before, the war was over -- temporarily. I had raised the pop from 6 to 11 , but it still had 6 German citizens. It had temple, lib, university, cathedral, and was producing about 70 shields per turn. German capital was 11 squares any mine was 4... If any city was immune...

 

[Padma]

Why would you expect a city that has more than half its population foreign to be immune from flipping?

To guarantee against a flip, you would have needed at least six, and quite possibly 12 military stationed there. Maybe more.

 

[mrtn]

Originally posted by Wolfhart
... What I do against such an enemy border town with a culture>10 is to plant one of my own towns right next to his border, preferably the corner of his city radius where there's only one tile between our cities. ...

The AI never settles just one tile away from our city. Only two tiles or more.
And I didn't advocate selling your temples, just pointing out the posibilities.

 

[vincenzo]

Thanks for the D clarification, Anarres.
When using the formula, or the Flipcalc, I am assuming the culture rating for my civ is the number shown in the total box on the F5 screen, correct?
The reason I ask is because I am getting very low numbers, like .4% for 10 turns.
(my civ shows 10,000 culture, and the Egyptians have none that I can see in any of the 10 cities I took, including the original capital, so I assumed 500 just for their palace)
I guess with such a huge difference there is no chance of flipping?
Thanks

 

[Wolfhart]

The AI never settles just one tile away from our city. Only two tiles or more.

True, but settling with only two tiles between them and our city (and that they do to me annoyingly often) makes us lose the tiles within our city radius that are nearest to the new AI city, even though our culture exceeds 10 and theirs is 0. So no 21 tiles for us anymore until we take their city or they take ours one way or the other. That's why I raised the question, I got the mistaken impression that it was stated that once you gain control over all 21 tiles you're safe from cult flips even if you lose some of those later

And I didn't advocate selling your temples, just pointing out the posibilities.

I know and I didn't mean to imply that you did You're right that enemy cities 3-4 tiles away with a lot of culture can't touch you. In that case a true warmonger could sell his temple if he needed some hard cash pronto :soldier:

 

[anarres]

vincenzo,

Since the important thing is the ratio of culture you are best looking at the cluture graph (F8, select culture from drop down box).

From here you can see by looking at the bottom of the graph roughly what the ratio is. If it looks like you have 4 times the culture, put 4 in their culture box and 1 in yours.

 

[vincenzo]

Ok I got it. Thanks, Anarres.
If I am reading your calculator correctly, it looks like turning a citizen into an entertainer will lower the flip risk, since less tiles are worked by the foreign civ.
Correct?

 

[Grille]

Regarding variable "F",
is there a formula or such about the period of time the last foreigner of a city will be assimilated?
Or, if I don't starve down population of a captured city (so I keep more than one foreigner) will the foreigners be assimilated at a linear rate?
All info I got is that assimilation depends (again) on culture (local counts in??). But this is somewhat vague. It's because if you finished a civ that had already low culture (way lower than yours), the respective foreign citizens sometimes seem to stay very long (or I *measured* that time incorrect as human being). I even suspect capital distance to be responsible, but...
Similar problem w/ resisters: how many do how long stay?
I suspect it (among other things?) depends on local culture.

 

[Grille]

Originally posted by vincenzo
Ok I got it. Thanks, Anarres.
If I am reading your calculator correctly, it looks like turning a citizen into an entertainer will lower the flip risk, since less tiles are worked by the foreign civ.
Correct?

About the tiles: it doesn't matter if your city's citizen of your or of the foreign nationality do work on a tile that is currently in the city's radius.
For the calculation, you count all ("potential" 21-radius) tiles your city shares with another culture (in case of city radius overlap and/or foreign culture overlapping *your* city radius if you haven't got a border expansion yet).
But turning citizens to entertainers at such an intensity that starvation occurs might reduce flip risk due to lowering the number of foreign citizens ("F").

 

[Moulton]

I guess I should not give numbers from memory. Hamburg was 7 Gm out of 12 pop. Garrison was 2. New German cap was 17 tiles away, mine was 7.
I would be presumptive to assume any city is totally immune to flip, especially a captured city (outside the capital). But I had taken these cities -- the core of Germany about 500 years earlier. In the same campaign, I razed Berlin, captured the French core cities, Italian, and then Greece, and eliminated Russia. Later moved my capital to Rome, and Paris became my best city ever. I absolutely did not expect a flip after this amount of time and development.
According to your Calc, Annares, the flip chance was .002, no garrison required.
According the FlipCalc it was .00025 chance of flip.

I won the game by culture 66 turns later.

 

[Padma]

The chance of a flip on any given turn will seem almost ridiculously low. The thing to remember is that even at these low levels, there is *some* probability of a flip. As long as the chance is greater than zero, the RNG *might* pull an appropriately ridiculous number out of its hat, and bang, there goes the city.

Low risk is not the same as no risk.

 

[Gen]

Originally posted by Grille
All info I got is that assimilation depends (again) on culture (local counts in??). But this is somewhat vague. It's because if you finished a civ that had already low culture (way lower than yours), the respective foreign citizens sometimes seem to stay very long (or I *measured* that time incorrect as human being). I even suspect capital distance to be responsible, but...

Assimilation depends on culture but more importantly, it doesn't even start before you own a city for more turns than it's previous owner. That makes it virtually impossible to assimilate captured core cities in Industral era and later.

 

[Moulton]

Quote:
Low risk is not the same as no risk.

I have taken to assuming that the chance is about the same as Jokers Wild. Actually, not that high, since the joker is 1/53. I do not risk units in cities after the initial rebelliion is quelled. If that gets a flip, it is only one unit, and the city is easily retaken. I have rarely lost a city twice -- only to Aztec -- and the third time I just raze it and start over.

I generally like the added flavor from flipping... but it does seem that there should come a time after ownership that you could count on it as 'your' city. Ini this case, it had been 500 years. (1788). Of course, I took it back, and eliminated Germany forever, but just hated to lose all my improvements... Even squids have pride...

 

[Grille]

Originally posted by Gen

Assimilation depends on culture but more importantly, it doesn't even start before you own a city for more turns than it's previous owner. That makes it virtually impossible to assimilate captured core cities in Industral era and later.

I haven't considered the "age" of a foreign citizen so far.
Yeah, that sounds very reasonable.

 

[Padma]

Originally posted by Moulton
I generally like the added flavor from flipping... but it does seem that there should come a time after ownership that you could count on it as 'your' city. Ini this case, it had been 500 years. (1788). Of course, I took it back, and eliminated Germany forever, but just hated to lose all my improvements... Even squids have pride...

While I can explain the mechanics of flipping, and even understand it from the gameplay perspective, I agree that from a "historical/storyline" perspective, a flip like that is difficult to justify, at best. Especially since the game mechanics don't currently allow for any warning of impending flips.