MW Armies

[darski]

Ok. I know that my PRNG luck is notoriously bad but we'll ignore that for this question.

I was recently playing an Iro Domination game. I have modded my Heroic Epic to produce leaders every so often because I just can't get them very often. At any rate, I had 2 (3MW) armies in my game at one point. all my units were vets.

The first army died to one Reg Pike. My other army was reduced to near death experiences with every combat event (1hp remaining)

Now as I said, I have lousy RNG luck generally but my lone MW's had a very good average. they had better rates than the armies.

Has anyone else had this sort of bad luck with MW armies? it was just amazing to see how badly they met the combat challenge.

 

[Buttercup]

Has anyone else had this sort of bad luck

I can't offer a match comparison for Mounted Warriors as that is one civ I've never played oddly enough.

However, I can reveal equally bad luck. They do say you remember the worst more than you remember the best and I think, over the course of the game, I swear one gets better luck than bad, but here's some recent notables of outrageous fortune from my games:

In the same game: I formed a troop of 7 Veteran Swordsmen to go and take out an AI capital city with 3 Spearmen. I entered the city with only 2 of them left, the one that entered the city being the last playable Swordsman and he was reduced to 1 Hit Point. No elites were created. A few techs later and I sent 4 Knigts and 2 Crusaders to do the same job against 3 Spearmen to the AI's new capital city. Again, I entered the city with just 2 units remaining, the last playable unit having 1 Hit Point left. It makes you think there must be more to civ battles than just stat numbers.

On two occasions I've been denied the final town of an AI civ. On the first occasion 8 Archers, ranging from Regular to Elite, failed to take out 2 spearmen in a derelict, distant, minimal production, port town of 3 citizens. On the second occasion, a similarly structured town was defended by one solitary Elite Rifleman and my 4 Elite Cavalry were all reduced to 1 Hit Point or dead without barely touching the Rifleman.

In terms of armies, my two most shocking losses were: An army of 4 Elite Cavalry dying to one 3 Hit Point Infantryman without inflicting a single hit and, in the same game, a half strength army of 3 Elite Cavalry being defeated in defence of a lone Samurai.

Doesn't help solve the issue with Mounted Warriors, but hopefully helps you realise you are not alone with regards to Random Number Generators. I also think it's odd that 3 or 4 Frigates can bombard a Destroyer to death, the numbers seem too far apart. I genuinely think there's more to civ's Number Generator than meets the eye.

 

[vmxa]

I do not recall making an army using MW. A defense one unit is just asking for trouble with an army. The are usually fine on attack as it is the same as AC or Swords. If you cannot cover them on defense, then they will be at risk.

An AC or Sword army will not be at risk, if fairly healthy and not in town in the early game.

 

[darski]

@vxma -I was attacking!

 

[scratchthepitch]

It makes you think there must be more to civ battles than just stat numbers....I genuinely think there's more to civ's Number Generator than meets the eye.

There is. When I notice the AI is beginning an "invincible" streak, I immediately save and quit the game, restart and then continue. This usually breaks the cycle.

 

[vmxa]

Pikes are killable with that army, but I prefer to use 4x if 3 attaack units or 3x 4 attack units like MDI. That said, it must be the mother of all bad rng rolls to get to 1 HP on a 12HP army so many times.

 

[Elephantium]

It's not quite , but it's still pretty bad.

In the SGCD game last night, I lost a full-strength Knight while attacking an enemy Longbow. That's the type of situation where I put in in my writeups

 

[Raliuven]

Agreed. Last night in the game I was playing a 11/13 sword army went down to a 3/13 sword army vs a 3/3 spear. It was forted in a city size 6, grassland, no river, no wall.

 

[JRush18]

Three nights ago I lost a Swordsman army, 2 Horseman and a swordsman to the same 1hp Spearman in a pop 4 city.

 

[Bartleby]

I'll never forget the time that I lost a full-strength sword army attacking a spearman fortified in a city.

 

[del62]

The problem with MW armies is even when fully healed an Medeival Infantry will attack them, so you cant use them as cover for your forces once the AI hits the middle ages, a strength the Celts with their GS have over the Iriqois

 

[creamcheese]

I think some of you guys are just over-inflating your bad luck. Everyone has good luck and they don't question it, but then when they lose an army: "The RNG is rigged!" . Don't discount the power of defensive modifiers, they can make it seem like the game hates you.

We all do it, humans just aren't very well suited to determining if something is truly random or not.

That said, I am pretty sure I've lost a full hp Modern Armor army to a single infantry in the open.

 

[scratchthepitch]

I think some of you guys are just over-inflating your bad luck. Everyone has good luck and they don't question it

I consider it "good luck" when the rng roll matches the odds, and extraordinarily incredible good luck when the rng beats the odds in my favor. But most often, when the odds are not absurdly in my favor, the rng beats the odds in the AI's favor. If it weren't for bad luck.... http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3wmu2_creambornunderabadsignrockandrollha

We all do it, humans just aren't very well suited to determining if something is truly random or not.

A few years back I was curious if my ingame impressions were skewed so I fully documented every combat in a game. My impressions turned out to be correct, the rng rolls were not matching the odds with the player getting the shaft usually.

 

[creamcheese]

A few years back I was curious if my ingame impressions were skewed so I fully documented every combat in a game. My impressions turned out to be correct, the rng rolls were not matching the odds with the player getting the shaft usually.

Are you sure you calculated the odds correctly, and how many battles did you use for your data points?

 

[scratchthepitch]

Are you sure you calculated the odds correctly, and how many battles did you use for your data points?

Yes, I used the combat calculator that is from this site, and I calculated all the fights in that game. There were several hundred combat incidents.

 

[PaperBeetle]

Yeah, I've been thinking about doing that for about nine years now, and never summoned the comitment. But you've called me on it. Lanze's Celtic Training Day Game. I haven't had any combats yet, but will attempt to make a full record of them when they happen.
Now, what data needs recording? Unit type, hp, stance (fortified or not), terrain of both combatants. Anything else? Anyone know the precise details of when a unit is blocked from being able to retreat on defense? Can a fortified unit be forced to retreat, or does it always fight to the death?
Recording AI attacks against me on the interturn might not be practical, as they'll go by too quickly to catch all the details.

 

[Raliuven]

You'll probably be able to catch some of the early battles. At any rate, I think it would be important to record the AI attacks in this instance. For example, it could be that the generator is bias against the attacker, not the human. You would not know this unless you record both sides (at least to the extent possible). It might be that the defender receives a 'push' on a tie, breaking the odds in their favor.

This sounds very, very interesting. If you need any tests set up, I'd be willing to make & run some. I'm not a wiz at the editor, but it should be possible to check some criteria re: retreating. I think having its back to the ocean prevents retreat. It might reveal some interesting data - such as if a WC is pinned with a mountain (no road) to it back, is it prevented from retreat? I would think so. Might be a good tactic to destroy WC and neutralize their early retreat abilities, as applicable.

 

[scratchthepitch]

Now, what data needs recording? Unit type, hp, stance (fortified or not), terrain of both combatants. Anything else? Anyone know the precise details of when a unit is blocked from being able to retreat on defense? Can a fortified unit be forced to retreat, or does it always fight to the death?

This is what I record:

Who is attacking and who is defending.

Offense/defense of both units, including defensive bombard.

HP of both.

Defensive bonuses, including fortified, etc. For the defender's tile, you don't need the attacker's tile bonus as they are not part of the fight.

% chance attacker and defender have to win.

Who won, how many HP the winner lost, if any. And the % chance of that HP loss ( I keep track of the hp losses because I get hammered pretty bad a lot on even easy combat situations - and I notice others have complained of this up thread, also).

Any exp. level rise. Leaders created, other things of note.

I don't run the combat calculator using the fast attacker and fast defender modes because all the units in my game move 2 or more and the calculator can not be set with both fast attacker and fast defender checked. If both units move 2 or more, such as cavalry vs cavalry, who should be the one the "fast" settings are applied too? Retreats are rare in my games (I don't remember any recent times this happened, it could be that when both are fast units, neither is allowed to retreat?), when one does happen, I note it down, along with the HP damage both units suffered and call it a draw. If using the fast attacker/defender settings, you will need to know the experience of both units, elite, regular, etc. I would assume if a unit that would have retreated is prevented from doing so, it then fights to the finish like a unit incapable of retreating. I don't know if fortified units, and those in fortresses and cities get to retreat.

Recording AI attacks against me on the interturn might not be practical, as they'll go by too quickly to catch all the details.

What I do is write down the stats for units that are likely to see action before I click the next button. Then I just have to keep track of the AI attackers, mostly. Once the action starts I try to write down units types, hp and who won as they occur. Then when it's the player turn again, I go back and fill in the details that I can. You can usually keep up with win/loss stats, but keeping track of winner hp loss when that unit is then lost in another combat is tricky. Experience level gains may also be hard to keep track of during multi-unit combat incidents. Also, you can turn on all the AI unit animations to slow things down and give yourself more time to write.

Because I cant record as detailed a documentation for the AI's turn combats, I keep these and those which happened during the player's turn separate. Since AI turn info is less reliable and complete, I don't put the same weight on the results I do with info from the player's turn.

 

[PaperBeetle]

Yep, some good food for thought there. I might have to run a pre-test for my tests. Record a turn's worth of fighting in Buttercup's Zulu game, perhaps. See what the practicalities are.

 

[Buttercup]

I think I can categorically state that defence does not have the advantage in civ3. In my experience the attack has the best of it, whether it be the human or the AI. This is because at every stage of the game (excluding the one brief advantage of Infantry) there is always an attacking unit which is either a match for any defensive units available (excluding the opening few turns, but then a civ might start with Warrior Code and have Archers from the get-go) or, more often the case, an attack which is far greater than any defence available.

And I have found that when there's a match it is more often than not the attacker that wins. Also, I have found that if you send one troop out to attack on it's own it dies substantially more often while attacking and defending than if you have either a bunch or a circle of supporting troops (and they don't even have to be defensive specific support).

Because the game gets your mind subconsciously used to this, it's when you lose big while attacking that this really stands out double-fold and one gets the feeling something unfair has happened, as opposed to simply encountering a unit that is leader potential or just getting good rolls, or a pre-defined game slow down point (in that the game doesn't feel you deserve the win yet for whatever reason). Also, they die a lot easier when the AI nation is nearing it's end than when you first declare war.

I have no facts to back up all my statements, but they are all facts which condition how I play and they always appear to work out.

On the subject of facts:

When the average available attacking unit has an attack of 3 and the average defensive unit has a defence of 2, what is the exact defensive value of:

A Spearman in a Forest
A Spearman in a Jungle
A Spearman on a Hill
A Spearman on a mountain

A Spearman fortified in a forest
A Spearman fortified in a Jungle
A Spearman fortified on a hill
A Spearman fortified on a mountain

A Spearman in a town
A Spearman fortified in a town
A Spearman fortified in a town with a Wall

A Spearman in a town in a Forest
A Spearman fortified in a town in a Forest
A Spearman fortified in a town in a Forest with a Wall

A Spearman in a town in a Jungle
A Spearman fortified in a town in a Jungle
A Spearman fortified in a town in a Jungle with a Wall

A Spearman in a town on a Hill
A Spearman fortified in a town on a Hill
A Spearman fortified in a town on a Hill with a Wall

A Spearman in a city
A Spearman fortified in a city
A Spearman fortified in a city with a Wall

A Spearman in a city in a Forest
A Spearman fortified in a city in a Forest
A Spearman fortified in a city in a Forest with a Wall

A Spearman in a city in a Jungle
A Spearman fortified in a city in a Jungle
A Spearman fortified in a city in a Jungle with a Wall

A Spearman in a city on a Hill
A Spearman fortified in a city on a Hill
A Spearman fortified in a city on a Hill with a Wall

I have excluded Worker built Fortresses as I've never seen the AI build one as yet and I rarely do (though when I do they do deter the AI superbly, I just rarely get good locations for them).

Before the advent of the Civil Defence building, what other defensive bonuses are available if I've missed any?

If this is all explained in the precise detail elsewhere on the site, what is the link for it and does it explain how defences stack - whether it takes just the highest defence value or whether it stacks in a cumulative way and, if so, in what order.

Thanks in advance