Linklite
Emperor
- Joined
- Sep 2, 2019
- Messages
- 1,682
To have an accurate probability, you'd have to know the decision process. For example, it could be that it rolls for the all leader-civ combos, which would've you 10 out of 58, or it could roll the civ first, then roll again if there are multiple leaders (which I assumed for simplicity) which would be 9 out of 50). Or it could roll your leader then, if necessary, roll the civ, which would give similar results. Worse, there could be biases involved (if there is already a civ on the continent, then civs based on that continent might be less likely, etc).Also, as I was thinking about it... this is more complicated than it first appears! My assumption is that the leaders each have equal probability of appearing (mostly), so 54 should be in the denominator. The inclusion of multiple leaders for a single civ or multiple civs for a leaders definitely complicates it though.
My simplistic assumption is that the leaders are picked first, but in any invalid combos, one is thrown out, then rolled again (ie, Gorgo and Pericles). Then, for any leaders who could represent multiple civs, or who have multiple personae, a coin flip happens to decide.
As a rough and ready guide, I think previous calculations suffice. You could try to get more precise calculations, but then due to unknowns, I think we'd be fussing about inches while having error bars of feet.