Nukes - how many required?

[Kilt]

I am currently loading up on nukes before the UN passes a resolution against creating new ones. I only have a handfull atm 4-6. I know most of my key opponents have SDI and I suspect they have bomb shelters. I am wondering if anyone has experimented with nukes.
On average, how many does it take to nuke a capital city if they have SDI and likely shelters. If I fire 10 at a city, I figure SDI will take out 7 of the 10. Does 1 nuke do considerable damage. What kind of damage can I expect from the 3 that do land?

And does the AI usually respond with nukes?

Thanks
Kilt.

 

[The Fathom]

I think it will be different fro everyone.

 

[Smeee]

I think it will be different fro everyone.

Save game..... Fire em off...... see result.... reload.

 

[The Fathom]

Save game..... Fire em off...... see result.... reload.

Hahahahaha good thing bush does not have this option

 

[Smeee]

Hahahahaha good thing bush does not have this option

You just have to hope he doesn't think he has this option

 

[Colossian]

You just have to hope he doesn't think he has this option

Does he know Civ4?

 

[Smeee]

Does he know Civ4?

He seems to think thats the roleplaying game they play downstairs in the Whitehouse

 

[WackenOpenAir]

Yep, and he ain't going for a diplomatic victory......

 

[Harry Haller]

Against SDI, you will lose a lot of your attacking nuclear weapons, as you note. With a single successful attack, most of the city defenders will still be there, but they will be weaker. I have found that a second strike in the same turn will eliminate most or all of the defending units. I'm sure someone can calculate the number of missiles that you need to have a 95% chance of 2 successful hits against a 75% shoot-down rate.

 

[automator]

So the SDI takes out a nuke with a 75% probability, then the bunkers reduce damage by 75%, right?

So you fire 4 nukes at a city. One makes it through. Then there's the "kill check" for each building -- manual isn't clear what the computation for that is (50/50?) so let's assume it's a 50/50 kill check, but bunkers up that to 75/25. So a quarter of their buildings are destroyed. Then same for units. Twenty-five percent of the units are either destroyed or take some damage.

But then again, all improvements around the city are GONE. If the AI in Civ4 gets rid of all their workers like they do in Civ3, its a lot of time before the AI can repair that damage.

 

[mikester]

I played around with nukes in a game last week, because the AI was going for a space-race victory and I knew there was no way to catch it, so I decided to bomb it into oblivion.

There seems to be a point of diminishing returns with the nukes. The AI had no SDI and I don't think it had bomb shelters, so not sure how that would affect things. But after the first couple of strikes, all the units in the cities were gone. The city population levels dropped quickly, then tailed off. The first couple of strikes took out about 3 population points each (from level 11-12 cities). After that, it was 1-2 points per strike, and it leveled off at 3. No matter how much I bombed their capitol, I couldn't get it below size 3.

And then the global warming set in and wiped out my economy.

 

[Roland Johansen]

Against SDI, you will lose a lot of your attacking nuclear weapons, as you note. With a single successful attack, most of the city defenders will still be there, but they will be weaker. I have found that a second strike in the same turn will eliminate most or all of the defending units. I'm sure someone can calculate the number of missiles that you need to have a 95% chance of 2 successful hits against a 75% shoot-down rate.

If you hit the city with 17 nukes in one turn, then the chance that 2 or more hit is 94.99%. With 10 nukes, the chance is 75.60% that 2 or more nukes hit. You need a lot of nukes to make sure that you hit 2 or more times. (of course, on average 1 in 4 nukes will hit) Best to build a lot of nukes and nuke the city until you have 2 hits. Then you can save the rest for another city. Only use nukes when the city is very heavily defended, otherwise it's not worth it (when SDI has been built).

 

[Control Group]

You need a lot of nukes to make sure that you hit 2 or more times.

[pedantic]Specifically, you need an infinite supply if you want to be certain of hitting 2 or more times. Any finite number will have a non-zero percent chance of all being defeated by the defenses.[/pedantic]

 

[Wyz_sub10]

SDI is only tech I really hate in the game. It should be a future tech that comes far, far after the development of nukes.

 

[lances]

[pedantic]Specifically, you need an infinite supply if you want to be certain of hitting 2 or more times. Any finite number will have a non-zero percent chance of all being defeated by the defenses.[/pedantic]

How long does it take to build that many?

 

[Kilt]

Thanks

I think I am at the point of no return with the game I am on. I can't win through diplomacy, won't win by culture, have space race turned off, so looks as though I will need to will by expansion/population. A slow process when you are up against tech equivalents. Hopefully the nukes will give me an edge.

Kilt.

 

[MNGhost]

How long does it take to build that many?

You probably won't finish before 2050.