Overpowered Artillery vs Metro Defenders?

[Jivilov]

It would seem that Artillery with just 12 Bombard strength should hardly score a hit against Tow (base defense of 14) or Mech Infantry (base of 18) in Metros. Just on level ground the added 125% Metro and Fortification bonuses would make them defend at 31 and 40 respectively. Yet in some games stacks of 30 or so have managed to bring combinations of 6 or 7 down to yellow or redline. Compared to the difficulty of Trebs (6 bombard) putting much dent in Swiss Mercs or Muskets defending at 7 in flatland Cities it's almost too easy. Or am I missing something?

Thanks as always for your kind attention.

 

[justanick]

Or am I missing something?

You are missing the rate of fire.

For artillery it is 2, for cannons and trebs only 1. Since artillery will have 2 shots per bombardment the likeliness that one shot will make a dent is higher and there also is the chance that 2 HP are removed from the defender.

For radar artillery the rate of fire is 3 and the bombardement value is 16. The value of land artillery is increasing progressively.

Please note that Bombers and Stealth Bombers do also have a rate of fire of 3.

Just on level ground the added 125% Metro and Fortification bonuses[...]

That would be 135% as plains etc. do give 10%.

 

[Jivilov]

Thanks justanick, appreciate it. Yes, I was aware that Arty has 2 chances with each salvo. Perhaps my problem is fully grasping the concept of "weighted probability" on which Civ3 combat is based so that even defending Longbowmen can win against Cavalry once in awhile. Also forgetting statistical variance which allows the same LB to win against another Cav (think this one was wounded) on the same Turn when the LB is adjacent to an undefended Constantinople (so as to bait attackers) in a current game. Likewise regarding such variances against my favor, such as lackluster bombardment of Swiss Mercs in Amsterdam with Trebs, Cavalry losing to Numidian Mercs or Cav Armies losing to Muskets in Cities (after earlier killing Rifles with ease) as examples of RNG caprice. (Of course, whenever my LBs or redlined Cav win in similar circumstance, well, that's only justice!)

All things considered Civ3's combat system is both internally consistent in the long run and a fair approximation of War's unpredictability. Case closed.